Morphettville Racing Tips Sept 19 — Beat The Cosmic One?
Caulfield Racing Tips Sep 19: Is Custom the Real Deal?
Overview
Custom doesn’t get talked about the way the big spring names do, but five runs at Caulfield have produced two wins and two more placings, and nothing else on today’s ten-race card can match that sample. That’s the horse worth building a ticket around before you even look at the Group 2 headliner later in the afternoon. These Caulfield racing tips work through all ten races, from the Bm74 opener to the last-race Bm84, with the trainer and jockey numbers that actually mean something and the ones that don’t.
It’s a big Saturday: ten races on the Caulfield turf, a Group 2 in the Sportsbet Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes, and a Caulfield Guineas Prelude that starts putting the spring picture together. Ciaron Maher has a runner in every single race, 21 in all, which tells you plenty about the depth in his stable right now. Read on for the pick in each race, the danger to respect, and where the market is likely to be generous.
The Caulfield setup today
Course form worth noting: plenty of today’s runners have been to Caulfield enough times now for the numbers to mean something. Custom leads the way at 40% wins and 80% placed from five runs, which is a genuine specialist record rather than a small-sample flash. Harry’s Yacht, Stealth Of Night and Behaviour have all had four runs at the track, and Cosmic Crusader and Winnasedge have turned three Caulfield starts into perfect placing records.
| Horse | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Custom | 5 | 2 | 4 | 40.0% | 80.0% |
| Harry’s Yacht | 4 | 2 | 3 | 50.0% | 75.0% |
| Stealth Of Night | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0.0% | 75.0% |
| Behaviour | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0.0% | 75.0% |
| Cosmic Crusader | 3 | 2 | 3 | 66.7% | 100.0% |
| Winnasedge | 3 | 2 | 3 | 66.7% | 100.0% |
| Fundamental Nature | 3 | 2 | 2 | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Prince Eric | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33.3% | 66.7% |
| Porter | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0.0% | 60.0% |
Craig Williams doesn’t have a full book today but rides three, and his 54.6% placing strike from 86 Caulfield rides tops every jockey engaged. Behind him, Jamie Melham and B Melham both convert at close to one in five for wins, which is worth knowing before you tip a longshot over one of their rides on percentages alone.
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Craig Williams | 86 | 16 | 47 | 18.6% | 54.6% |
| Jamie Melham | 48 | 8 | 23 | 16.7% | 47.9% |
| B Melham | 28 | 6 | 13 | 21.4% | 46.4% |
| Jett Stanley | 26 | 2 | 12 | 7.7% | 46.2% |
| D W Stackhouse | 44 | 9 | 20 | 20.5% | 45.5% |
| Jabez Johnstone | 40 | 7 | 17 | 17.5% | 42.5% |
| H Coffey | 64 | 5 | 27 | 7.8% | 42.2% |
| Ethan Brown | 36 | 7 | 12 | 19.4% | 33.3% |
On the training side, Archie Alexander is the standout by rate rather than volume, placing more than half his 11 Caulfield runners. Ciaron Maher doesn’t top this table on percentage, but no other stable comes close to his 180 runs at the track, 25 of them winners and 71 more finishing in the money. With 21 runners spread across all ten races today, his colours are simply everywhere.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archie Alexander | 11 | 2 | 6 | 18.2% | 54.5% |
| Andrea Leek | 6 | 2 | 3 | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| Julius Sandhu | 12 | 4 | 6 | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| M M Laurie | 35 | 5 | 17 | 14.3% | 48.6% |
| M, W & J Hawkes | 24 | 1 | 11 | 4.2% | 45.8% |
| Ben Brisbourne | 9 | 1 | 4 | 11.1% | 44.4% |
| Tom Dabernig | 34 | 6 | 15 | 17.6% | 44.1% |
| D T O’Brien | 44 | 6 | 19 | 13.6% | 43.2% |
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Race by race
Race 1: The Taggart (Bm74) — 12:10pm, 1969m
Emperor Tzu has been building to a moment like this. Two wins and two seconds across his last five starts, all of it inside a tidy 1.2 average finishing position, and he’s yet to even set foot on this track. Jabez Johnstone rides for Ciaron Maher, whose sheer volume at Caulfield means the operation knows exactly what it’s doing with placement like this.
The one with runs already on this scoreboard is Prince Eric. He’s placed in all three of his Caulfield starts, turning one into a win, and Archie Alexander trains at an 18% strike rate here with more than half his runners hitting the frame. Carrying 134.4kg is no small ask against a field like this one, though, and that’s the difference between backing him and using him underneath. Emperor Tzu to win, Prince Eric as the each-way safety net.
Race 2: Hkjc World Pool Classics Preview — 12:40pm, 1969m
Does either of these juveniles have enough runs on the board to trust? Not really. Icy You has never missed a place, winning one of her two starts, while Frank Whisper’s line of 8-4-1 at least points the right way under M M Laurie, who places at a shade under half from his 35 runners at the track. Neither has raced here before, and this is a watch race more than a betting one. If forced, Icy You on the improving trend, backed lightly, no more than that.
Race 3: Peninsula Kubota (Bm100) — 1:15pm, 1203m
Winnasedge has quietly turned three visits to Caulfield into three placings and two wins, and the most recent form matches it almost run for run. Nick Ryan trains at a 20% winning clip here from 30 runners, which backs up what the horse itself has already shown on this track. L Currie doesn’t add much shine to the numbers, but the horse is doing the work regardless.
Behaviour is the each-way risk. Four Caulfield runs have produced three placings and not one win, the profile of a horse that keeps finding the frame without ever quite getting there. That’s a dangerous thing to be up against a proven winner like Winnasedge over 1203m. Win bet on Winnasedge, save your exotics money for something with more upside.
Race 4: Manhari Thousand Guineas Prelude — 1:50pm, 1531m
Portinari has the runs on the board at this track, four of them, and not one has produced a win. Tolaga Bay has raced just twice anywhere and won both. This Guineas prelude comes down to which matters more this early in a preparation: proven attendance or an unbeaten but unproven résumé. Ben, Will & JD Hayes train Portinari and carry real numbers at Caulfield, 146 runners and an 11% strike, but that hasn’t translated for this particular galloper.
Tolaga Bay gets the vote on class and upside, with M J Dee doing the steering. Double Dodger and Joely are both fresh maiden winners worth a watch if the market drifts either of them, but this is thin territory across the board. Small each-way stake on Tolaga Bay, treat the rest as form notes for another day.
Race 5: Sportsbet Caulfield Guineas Prelude — 2:25pm, 1531m
A & S Freedman don’t book Mark Zahra three times on one card by accident, and American Eagle is the first leg of it. Unbeaten in two starts, the only one of those at Caulfield a win, and the stable itself sits on a 22% winning rate and 39% placing rate from 59 runners at the track. Add in the pair’s history at this track, seven rides together producing two wins and two more placings, and the picture is about as coordinated as this sport gets.
Blind Raise is the one with the form line to worry about, a string of 1-1-9-1 that shows more consistency than most in this field, trained by T Busuttin & N Young with B Shinn aboard. He’s the each-way danger rather than the winning one. American Eagle is short on runs but long on evidence, and with two more Freedman-Zahra combinations to come today, this looks the sort of formline that repeats itself across the card. Back American Eagle to win, and treat it as the value leg of anything you build around this stable’s afternoon.
Race 6: Sportsbet How Now Stakes — 3:00pm, 1312m
The market hasn’t caught up to what Custom actually is at this track. Five runs, two wins, two more placings, an 80% record in the frame that no other runner on the entire card can match. His last four starts have carried the same shape, two wins and two placings at an average finish of 1.75, and Ethan Brown rides him for Ciaron Maher off the back of a 19.4% strike rate at Caulfield in his own right. This is about as close to a certainty as sample size allows.
Point Barrow is Zahra’s second ride for the Freedman stable today, won one of two at this track already, and looms as the obvious go-forward danger if Custom is caught napping in a sprint-distance field. Shadhavar shapes as the each-way alternative, with Tom Dabernig training at a 44.1% placing rate here from 34 runners. Custom is the win bet of the day. Nothing else on this card carries the same weight of course evidence.
Race 7: Henley Homes Underwood Stakes — 3:35pm, 1969m
This weight-for-age field sets up as a genuine test of tempo. Attrition has the most course experience of anyone here, four runs without a placing, so he isn’t the one to build the speed map around. Cosmic Crusader is: two wins and a third placing from three Caulfield starts, all of it backed up by a near-identical 90-day record, with Andrea Leek’s small stable firing at a third of winners from just six runners at the track.
Kingswood is the each-way risk if the tempo turns into a sprint from the 400m, having won his only start at this track and carrying the same 130kg topweight as most of this field. John Allen takes the ride. Birdman is the round-the-corner improver worth a saver, coming off a recent Caulfield win of his own for C J Waller. Cosmic Crusader to win, Kingswood underneath if you’re playing the exotics.
Race 8: Tobin Brothers Naturalism Stakes — 4:15pm, 2187m
Is there a genuine standout in a field of twenty over 2187m? Not an easy one to find. Saint George arrives without a Caulfield run to his name but has won one of his last two starts without missing a place, and having Mark Zahra aboard for Ciaron Maher (his sixth ride of the card) at least puts him with the right people. Zakouma has won one of his two Caulfield runs and adds a layer of genuine course form the favourite can’t claim yet.
Kings Valley has had three runs here without hitting the board once, which rules him out on the numbers alone regardless of what the market does with him. This is a watch race for most punters given the size of the field, but Saint George on the recent trend, with Zakouma as the each-way alternative for anyone wanting more course insurance.
Race 9: Sportsbet Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes — 4:50pm, 1531m
Tennessee Bound has won both of his Caulfield starts, and the wider picture backs it up: four runs this campaign, never out of the placings, two of them wins. Ciaron Maher trains him, one of a stable that’s been impossible to avoid on this card, and the fresh form here is exactly what a Group 2 assignment needs.
Harry’s Yacht tells a different story. Three of his four runs at this track have landed in the placings, two of those as wins, which looks outstanding on paper. But his only run in the past three months finished fifth, well held. That’s the sort of gap between old course form and current fitness that catches out punters who only read the top line. Tom Kitten, Zahra’s third ride for the Freedman stable today, adds another layer of danger with a 3-1-1-7-0 formline that includes two wins of its own. This is the best race on the card to have an opinion on. Tennessee Bound to win, with Harry’s Yacht only for those prepared to forgive the recent gap, and Tom Kitten worth a saver given the stable’s book today.
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18+ T&C’s Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
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Race 10: Ive (Bm84) — 5:25pm, 1531m
Porter has been to the frame at Caulfield again and again, three placings from five runs, and never once got his head in front. Fundamental Nature has done the opposite: two wins from three runs here, the numbers of a horse that either wins or doesn’t feature. The last race of the day comes down to which profile you’d rather back, the reliable minor-placegetter or the boom-or-bust winner.
D T O’Brien trains Porter at a 43.2% placing rate from 44 Caulfield runners, which fits the pattern exactly. John Allen rides Fundamental Nature for Ciaron Maher, the stable that’s been the story of the entire card, and his most recent campaign has cooled slightly to one win from two, though he’s never missed a place in either. Stealth Of Night rounds out a placing-heavy field with three from four here, but the same lack of a win applies. Fundamental Nature to win, Porter for the place market.
Where the money goes
If these Caulfield racing tips boil down to one call, it’s Custom. Five runs, two wins, four placings at Caulfield, and nothing else on today’s card can produce a course record that clean. Backing him in the Sportsbet How Now Stakes is the closest thing to a sure thing this sample size allows.
American Eagle is where the value sits. Two starts, both wins, one of them here, and a stable sending Mark Zahra out three times today because they believe in what they’ve got. The market is unlikely to have fully worked out what a compact but perfect formline like this is worth.
For the safest multi leg, Winnasedge’s three-from-three Caulfield record makes her the banker of the day. For each-way cover in a field with size and depth, Harry’s Yacht’s course résumé (two wins, three placings from four runs) still says plenty even with the recent gap in current form.
The repeatable angle today isn’t a single horse. It’s Ciaron Maher’s colours, in every single race, backed by more history at this track than any other stable on the card. Any punter building a Caulfield strategy beyond today should be watching where his team sends their better horses next.
Best bookmakers for today’s racing
Caulfield odds firm up closer to the jump, and prices between bookmakers can vary meaningfully on a card this size, especially around a Group 2 like the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes. Compare markets before you commit anything, particularly on the each-way propositions across today’s bigger fields.
FAQ
What time does racing start at Caulfield today?
The first race, The Taggart (Bm74), jumps at 12:10pm. Ten races follow through to the Ive (Bm84) at 5:25pm.
Who are the top trainers and jockeys at Caulfield today?
Ciaron Maher saddles a runner in every one of today’s ten races and has produced 25 wins and 71 placings from 180 runners at the track over time. Among today’s jockeys, Craig Williams leads on rate, placing 54.6% of his 86 Caulfield rides.
What are the best bets at Caulfield today?
Custom in the Sportsbet How Now Stakes (Race 6, 3:00pm) carries the cleanest course record on the card, two wins and four placings from five runs. American Eagle in the Caulfield Guineas Prelude (Race 5, 2:25pm) is unbeaten in two starts for a stable riding a hot streak with Mark Zahra.
Where can punters find the best odds for Caulfield races?
Prices move in the lead-up to raceday, and the gap between bookmakers widens on bigger fields like today’s 18 and 20-runner events. Check the bookmaker comparisons below before placing anything, rather than taking the first price you see.
