Overview
Ben Melham has won seven of his fourteen rides at Cranbourne, and on Friday night he partners three C W Mcdonald runners plus the Hayes stable’s recent course winner Ranarsson.
That booking sheet is the thread running through these Cranbourne racing tips. Melham and Mcdonald have teamed up seven times at this track for four wins, and Conquer The World, Hedjet and Simply Steffi all carry that combination tonight. Two of them sit right at the top of my order.
The essentials: eight races on a Good track, the first jumping at 6:15PM and the last at 9:45PM, with four maidens up front before a run of benchmark handicaps from 1200m out to 2580m. The early maidens are thin on exposed form, so expect a couple of honest “small stakes” calls. The back half is where I want to be involved, with Oceanella chasing a third straight win in the finale and Amawasha trying to turn three seconds into a first.
Cranbourne racing tips: reading Friday night’s card
Course experience is light across these fields. Only three of today’s runners have had three or more starts here, and two of those, Jewel Bay and Finance Shogun, have hit the frame three times from four visits. Arlington Row has won both Cranbourne starts, though two runs is a hint rather than a pattern.
| Horse | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jewel Bay | 4 | 2 | 3 | 50.0 | 75.0 |
| Finance Shogun | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25.0 | 75.0 |
| Itsukushima | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33.3 | 66.7 |
The riders tell a clearer story. Melham converts at a rate nobody else on the card gets near, Caitlin Hollowood quietly finds the placings at two in every three rides, and Lachlan Neindorf has the volume to back up his numbers.
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caitlin Hollowood | 15 | 2 | 10 | 13.3 | 66.7 |
| B Melham | 14 | 7 | 8 | 50.0 | 57.1 |
| Lachlan Neindorf | 41 | 10 | 22 | 24.4 | 53.7 |
| W Egan | 15 | 0 | 8 | 0.0 | 53.3 |
| M J Dee | 19 | 1 | 10 | 5.3 | 52.6 |
| Patrick Moloney | 19 | 6 | 9 | 31.6 | 47.4 |
| Celine Gaudray | 33 | 7 | 15 | 21.2 | 45.5 |
| J Noonan | 43 | 7 | 19 | 16.3 | 44.2 |
On the training side, Mcdonald is the standout, but M M Laurie deserves a look too, with ten winners from 25 runners here. C Maher brings seven runners and places with six in ten of his Cranbourne starters, while M Price and M Kent Jnr have the biggest team on the card at eight runners from a more modest base.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C W Mcdonald | 15 | 8 | 12 | 53.3 | 80.0 |
| C J Waller | 7 | 4 | 5 | 57.1 | 71.4 |
| C Maher | 45 | 8 | 27 | 17.8 | 60.0 |
| A & S Freedman | 21 | 6 | 12 | 28.6 | 57.1 |
| M M Laurie | 25 | 10 | 14 | 40.0 | 56.0 |
| Julius Sandhu | 38 | 9 | 20 | 23.7 | 52.6 |
| Ben, Will & JD Hayes | 71 | 13 | 30 | 18.3 | 42.2 |
| M Price & M Kent Jnr | 26 | 4 | 8 | 15.4 | 30.8 |
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Race by race: Cranbourne predictions
Race 1: Ladbrokes Tote Win +10% In October Mdn Plate, 6:15PM, 1000m
Truant is the one horse in this three-year-old maiden that has shown a race-ready level, and I’m happy to start the night there. An eighth on debut was followed by a second at the only run in the last three months, a clear step forward, and the Hayes stable has had 71 runners here for 13 winners, so they know what a Cranbourne maiden demands. D W Stackhouse should find cover from barrier 7.
The danger is the unknown. Strike Package debuts for A & S Freedman, who win with more than a quarter of their Cranbourne runners, and Mark Zahra jumps from gate 3. M M Laurie also has two first-starters in Lonnegan and Mystic River Queen, and a stable that wins four in ten here can’t be dismissed with a newcomer.
Win bet on Truant, kept small given how much is unexposed.
Race 2: Welcome Back John H Mdn Plate, 6:45PM, 1000m
Can a fresh horse beat a fit one? That is the whole question in this older-horse maiden. Dun Gracefully has placed at both Cranbourne starts and comes in without a run in the last 90 days, but shares the lightest weight in the race and has Caitlin Hollowood on top. Hollowood lands in the first three at two of every three rides here, which suits a horse that keeps finding the frame without winning.
Ottalaus is the fit option. Four recent runs have produced two placings, and the Nichols and Black stable wins with better than a quarter of its Cranbourne runners. If Dun Gracefully needs the run, Ottalaus is the obvious beneficiary. Naked Light, third last start, is next best.
Small each-way on Dun Gracefully. No confidence beyond that.
Race 3: Duffy & Simon Lawyers Mdn Plate, 7:15PM, 1200m
Thirteen maidens and very little that inspires. If forced, I side with La Velocita, whose form line of 8, 7, 6, 3, 3 is at least heading the right way. Two placings from five starts since July, a placing from two visits here, and the bottom weight in the field. Barrier 11 is the catch, as Bailey Kinninmont will need luck to save ground.
Beast Fighter is the danger with upside. A fourth on debut and a fifth last time for the Hayes team leaves room to improve, and L Currie places at close to 45% of his Cranbourne rides. The other wildcard is debutant Unannounced, with Patrick Moloney, who wins nearly a third of his rides here.
Each-way La Velocita, small stakes. This is a watch race for anyone keeping powder dry.
Race 4: Browns Sawdust & Shavings Mdn Plate, 7:45PM, 1400m
The C W Mcdonald stable does not send many runners to Cranbourne, but when it does they arrive ready. Eight winners from fifteen starters, twelve of them placed. With Melham in the saddle, Conquer The World becomes the most solid maiden bet on the card.
The form fits the connections. Third then second in two starts since July, and the step to 1400m looks the logical progression for a three-year-old still on the way up. Barrier 6 gives Melham options: roll forward if nothing wants the lead, or take a sit one off the fence and wait for the straight.
Braemar Hill is the threat, and a serious one. The five-year-old has also placed at both outings since mid-July, and Lachlan Neindorf wins nearly a quarter of his Cranbourne rides. The problem is barrier 12, which means covering ground or giving away a start. Jourama, from the Freedman stable, has a second and a fourth among the last four runs without winning and rounds out the exotic picture.
Back Conquer The World to win and use the horse as the leg to build multis around. Small saver on Braemar Hill for the place.
Race 5: Vtr Medical (Bm62), 8:15PM, 1400m
Ranarsson against the older brigade. That’s the contest. Ranarsson won the only career start right here three weeks ago for Melham and the Hayes stable, and three-year-olds stepping from a maiden win into a Bm62 against seasoned handicappers often find it tougher than the rating suggests. Not this one, I think. A debut winner who knows the track and keeps the same rider has a lot going for it.
Barrier 2 helps, letting Melham lob in behind the speed. The bigger worry is Aubaine. Four runs in the last 90 days have produced a win and three placings, and Jordan Childs salutes at better than one in four rides here. If Ranarsson shows any greenness at the top of the straight, Aubaine is the one ready to pounce.
Jewel Bay is the course horse, two wins and three placings from four Cranbourne starts, but has been unplaced in all three runs over the last 90 days and is hard to back on that. Jewel Of Heaven is one from one at the track and Angelotti won last time out, so both are worth including underneath.
Ranarsson on top, with Aubaine boxed in a quinella.
Race 6: Minuteman Press Narre Warren (Bm66), 8:45PM, 2580m
Three straight seconds. Amawasha keeps knocking, and the profile says the six-year-old will be in the finish again. Four placings from five runs this campaign, a second on the lone Cranbourne visit, and one of the lighter weights with D W Stackhouse aboard from barrier 3. Over 2580m, a horse who stays honestly and doesn’t need a gap is worth a lot.
The worry, obviously, is that none of those five recent starts ended in a win. That makes Amawasha a place bet more than a win bet, and there are a couple in here capable of finishing in front. Wolves’ Den won last time out for Julius Sandhu, who places at more than half of his Cranbourne runners, and J Noonan has the experience for a staying race. Barrier 14 matters less at this trip than it would over a sprint. Black Peppermint also won last start but shoulders the top weight, while Eye Tracker comes from the Shane Jackson stable that has won three of six here.
Trump Card and Verifier are scratched, which trims the field to thirteen.
Each-way on Amawasha, with Wolves’ Den the main danger for the win.
Race 7: Freeway Ford (Bm66), 9:15PM, 1600m
Hedjet grinds from the inside; Kastun Star arrives from out wide on a roll. They have never met, so it’s a profile call. Hedjet won last start after a second, has a win and a second from two recent runs, and draws barrier 2 with Melham. Kastun Star has won two in a row, scored on debut at this track, and has two wins and three placings from four runs in the last 90 days.
The split for me is the draw and the weight. Kastun Star carries more and jumps from barrier 12 over 1600m, which means either working early or settling back and needing luck. Hedjet should be one off the fence with a clean run from the 600m, and a stable that places four in every five Cranbourne starters doesn’t bring them here for the experience. That’s enough to side with Hedjet.
Crocodile is the each-way type, three placings from three runs lately without a win. Finance Shogun and Itsukushima are the course regulars, with five placings between them from seven Cranbourne starts, but neither has shown peak form lately.
Hedjet to win, saver on Kastun Star.
Race 8: Hygain Edge (Bm62), 9:45PM, 1200m
Oceanella is the horse I want to finish the night with. Two wins from two starts in the last three months, and drawn barrier 5 in a race where the speed looks spread across the gates. Simon Zahra wins with a quarter of his Cranbourne runners and D W Stackhouse rides. The rest of this field hasn’t shown the same momentum.
The question mark comes from the course winners. Arlington Row has won both starts here, but comes in without a run in three months and finished unplaced at the last two outings. C Newitt has had only one winner from 31 rides here, which doesn’t help. Kippis also has a course win from one try, though ran seventh last time.
The dangers I respect more are the consistent ones. Iced Poppy has placed three times from five starts lately, won once, and drew barrier 3. Volatile has placed in two of three recent starts and ran third on a single Cranbourne appearance. Simply Steffi is Melham’s third Mcdonald ride of the night and won at the only visit here back in February, but the form since has been ordinary.
The Flying Popov comes from the Waller yard, which has four wins from seven runners here, but one recent run for a sixth doesn’t scream readiness. Holding Captive and Our Yonglee are scratched.
Win bet on Oceanella. It’s the best bet of the night.
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Where the money goes
NAP: Oceanella (Race 8, 9:45PM). Unbeaten in two recent starts, drawn to get a perfect run, and facing a field where most rivals are either fresh or out of form.
Value: La Velocita (Race 3, 7:15PM). Back-to-back thirds, the bottom weight and a weak maiden. With cover from the wide gate the breakthrough is there for the taking, and this is not one the casual punter will look at.
Banker: Conquer The World (Race 4, 7:45PM). Two runs, two placings, stepping up in trip, and carrying the strongest stable and jockey pairing at this track.
Each-way: Amawasha (Race 6, 8:45PM). Second at three consecutive starts and placed on the lone course visit. The trip and the barrier suit; the win is the hard part, the place is not.
Course angle: C W Mcdonald with B Melham. Together they have won four of seven here, and Hedjet and Conquer The World run under that banner tonight.
If the Mcdonald stable keeps choosing its spots this carefully, those runners will be the first thing I check when putting together Cranbourne racing tips on a Friday night this spring.
FAQ
What time does the first race start at Cranbourne on Friday?
Race 1, the Ladbrokes Tote Win +10% In October Mdn Plate over 1000m, jumps at 6:15PM. The last, the Hygain Edge (Bm62), goes at 9:45PM, giving eight races on a Good track.
Which trainers and jockeys go best at Cranbourne?
C W Mcdonald leads tonight’s trainers with eight wins from fifteen starters here, and M M Laurie has ten winners from 25 runners. Among jockeys, B Melham has won seven of fourteen rides at the track, and Lachlan Neindorf has ten wins from 41 rides with 22 placings.
What are the best bets at Cranbourne tonight?
Oceanella in Race 8 is the top pick after two straight wins, with Conquer The World in Race 4 the most reliable multi leg. Amawasha in Race 6 is the each-way play after three consecutive seconds.
Where can I find the best Cranbourne odds?
Markets had not opened at the time of writing. Compare the bookmakers listed above once prices go up, and look hardest at the each-way terms for Race 6, where Amawasha has placed in four of the last five runs.