Overview
Out Of Luck has won the last two starts, and on Saturday lines up in a seven-horse 1800m handicap where nobody else arrives with a winning streak. Since mid-July the horse has won two of seven runs and placed at four of them, and has hit the frame at three of five visits to this track. That combination of current form and course knowledge makes him the horse I’m building these Gold Coast racing tips around.
The essentials: eight races on a Good to Soft surface, starting with a 1200m maiden at 1:06PM and wrapping up with a big 1200m Class 4 at 5:33PM. The middle of the card carries a 2235m staying test, two 1800m handicaps and a 1000m dash. Scratchings have hit hard, including late withdrawals in Races 1, 4, 6 and 8, so check the final fields before you bet. The two angles worth knowing are the D Peisley and P L Shailer partnership, which has a strong local record, and a handful of last-start winners stepping out again.
Gold Coast racing tips: what the track gives us
Course form is deeper than usual for a Saturday provincial card. Twelve of today’s remaining runners have had three or more starts here, and Argentum Rock leads the way with eight visits. The table below sorts them by how often they find the frame.
| Horse | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Out Of Luck | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20.0 | 60.0 |
| Argentum Rock | 8 | 1 | 4 | 12.5 | 50.0 |
| Forty Times | 4 | 1 | 2 | 25.0 | 50.0 |
| Pareto | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 50.0 |
| Archers Reign | 7 | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 42.9 |
| Bills Angel | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20.0 | 40.0 |
| Sea Warning | 6 | 1 | 2 | 16.7 | 33.3 |
| Ode To Beauty | 7 | 2 | 2 | 28.6 | 28.6 |
The riders split into two groups. Jaden Lloyd and Jasper Franklin find the frame most often, while Benjamin Osmond is the one who actually converts, with 13 winners from 63 rides at a strike rate well clear of the volume jockeys. B Lerena has ridden the most winners here, 14 of them.
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden Lloyd | 32 | 5 | 16 | 15.6 | 50.0 |
| Jasper Franklin | 34 | 6 | 15 | 17.6 | 44.1 |
| Benjamin Osmond | 63 | 13 | 26 | 20.6 | 41.3 |
| Olivia Kendal | 28 | 3 | 11 | 10.7 | 39.3 |
| B Lerena | 113 | 14 | 44 | 12.4 | 38.9 |
| Chelsea Baker | 32 | 1 | 12 | 3.1 | 37.5 |
| D L Turner | 91 | 8 | 34 | 8.8 | 37.4 |
| D Peisley | 89 | 8 | 33 | 9.0 | 37.1 |
Among trainers, P L Shailer places six in every ten runners brought here, and C Maher wins with close to three in ten. T J Gollan has the biggest local book by a distance, 149 runners for 23 winners. The Sears stable sends five runners today off 14 wins from 76 starters at the track.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P L Shailer | 38 | 9 | 23 | 23.7 | 60.5 |
| Nicholas Beck | 10 | 4 | 6 | 40.0 | 60.0 |
| MS H Page | 15 | 3 | 8 | 20.0 | 53.3 |
| C Maher | 38 | 11 | 20 | 28.9 | 52.6 |
| Chris & Corey Munce | 52 | 13 | 26 | 25.0 | 50.0 |
| K M Schweida | 66 | 13 | 32 | 19.7 | 48.5 |
| Michael Freedman | 47 | 6 | 22 | 12.8 | 46.8 |
| T J Gollan | 149 | 23 | 67 | 15.4 | 45.0 |
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Race by race: Gold Coast predictions
Race 1: Revelstone Stud Mdn Hcp, 1:06PM, 1200m
Which maiden do you trust when the scratchings have taken out half the exposed form? Bellouise, Vindictive, I Tried So Hard, Ander’s Dream, Thinker, Rising Queen and Coral are all out, and what’s left is a mix of debutants and horses still looking for a first win. I land on Mishani Senorita. Her last three runs read second, third, third, and three of five starts since mid-July ended in a placing. Barrier 2 lets J L Taylor save ground and sit handy.
The knock is the rider and the track. Taylor has one winner from 20 rides here, and the horse has been unplaced at both Gold Coast visits. Inzain Dragon is the danger after running third on debut at this course, though B Lerena has to work from barrier 14. Debutant Denver Bronco is the one I’d keep an eye on: P L Shailer trains, D Peisley rides, and that pairing has delivered here more than most.
Small each-way on Mishani Senorita. This is not a race to load up on.
Race 2: Richard Attwood (Bm62), 1:41PM, 2235m
Draw Attention is heading the right way at the right time. After a spell the form has gone fifth, fourth, fourth, third and then a win last start, a tidy staircase that suggests the 2235m trip has been the target. Three runs since mid-July have produced that win and two other placings, and hit the frame on the only Gold Coast start. T J Gollan has saddled more winners here than anyone on the card, and Archie McColm rides at 123.4kg.
Barrier 8 is the widest gate in an eight-horse field, but over this distance it gives McColm a choice rather than a problem. He can drift across and find a spot without burning petrol.
Disgruntled is the obvious threat. He also won last start, and Jasper Franklin rides a horse with a win and two placings from four recent runs from barrier 2. The pair have never met, so the head-to-head offers nothing. Bills Angel, second last time and a winner once from five visits here, is the best of the rest.
Win bet on Draw Attention, with Disgruntled the saver.
Race 3: Bob Marshall Hcp, 2:16PM, 1800m
Seven runners after Lord Protector‘s withdrawal, and only one of them is in form that demands respect. Out Of Luck has won the last two, and the bigger picture backs it up: two wins from seven runs since mid-July, four of them in the first four, and a 60% place strike rate from five Gold Coast starts. That’s enough course evidence to call this a genuine track horse.
Benjamin Osmond takes the ride, and has had only one previous ride for trainer Indiana Turner. I’m happy with the booking. Osmond wins a fifth of his rides here, the best strike rate of any jockey with real volume on the card. Out Of Luck carries 120.1kg from barrier 5, and with a small field there is no reason Osmond can’t settle wherever suits.
Awaygoesthebunny is the main danger. Six runs lately for three placings and no wins, the lightest weight in the race at 115.7kg, and barrier 2. That light weight is a threat if Awaygoesthebunny is allowed to roll forward unchallenged. Chayse ‘N’ Artie has placed at both course starts but carries top weight.
Back Out Of Luck to win. He’s the best bet of the day.
Race 4: Attwood Marshall Lawyers Racing & Equine Law Hcp (C1), 2:55PM, 1800m
Alkebulan‘s late scratching removes a last-start winner and opens this up. My pick now is Argentum Rock, who has the most Gold Coast experience in the field and has hit the frame in half of eight visits. The recent profile matches: a third last start and two placings from four runs since mid-July. Frederick Larson has ridden more races here than any other jockey and gets the job from barrier 6.
The worry is the win. Argentum Rock has only one Gold Coast win from those eight starts and carries 128.9kg. Flop Shot is the one that could beat Argentum Rock. A fourth and then a second from two recent runs for trainer G A Thornton, with Boris Thornton riding from barrier 4. Coastal Cowboy, a winner two starts back, has top weight and barrier 11 to deal with.
Each-way Argentum Rock, with Flop Shot in the exacta.
Race 5: Angela Harry 20 Years Hcp (58), 3:39PM, 1000m
Dirty Harry against Decadad is the race. Dirty Harry won last start and has won on the only Gold Coast visit, with a win from two runs since mid-July. Boris Thornton rides at 126.7kg, but barrier 11 over 1000m means Thornton has to either cross early or sit back and hope.
Decadad‘s profile is the opposite. He ran second three times in a row before a fifth last start, the only run in the last three months, and has won once from two starts here. Archie McColm rides at 124.5kg from barrier 5, which is a far easier gate in a sprint this short. If that fifth was a run needed for fitness, Decadad is the one with the better draw and the lighter weight.
Ode To Beauty has two wins from seven course runs for MS H Page, who places at better than half her runners here. Funhouse, Shapin Power and Li’l Rex are out.
I’ll take Dirty Harry for the win on current form, but Decadad is the better bet if the market leans the other way. Win on Dirty Harry, small win on Decadad.
Race 6: Attwood Marshall Lawyers Hcp (60), 4:24PM, 1400m
D Peisley and P L Shailer have combined 19 times at the Gold Coast for five wins and 13 placings. When they line up with a last-start winner from the rail, I listen. Show’em Who’s King has gone fifth, fifth, third, third and then first, building steadily, and has placed in both course starts with a win among them.
The top weight of 132.2kg is the honest concern, but barrier 1 offsets it. Peisley can roll forward or hold a box seat, and over 1400m Show’em Who’s King should not have to spend energy early. Salchow and Secret Rose are scratched, which leaves ten runners and less traffic.
Paciera is the danger. Another last-start winner, a win from two runs lately, and drawn barrier 4. The query is the jockey and the stable here: Kyle Wilson-Taylor has one winner from 25 rides at the track and trainer Kristie Clark-Peoples has yet to win from nine starters. Archers Reign has placed three times from seven visits without winning.
Show’em Who’s King to win, and the banker for multis.
Race 7: Attwood Marshall Lawyers (Bm68), 4:59PM, 1200m
Better Not Slip grinds out wins; Warrior Bae keeps finishing just behind them. They’re both in the finish here, but I want the one that knows how to win. Better Not Slip won last start, won on the only Gold Coast visit, and the single run since mid-July was a win. Jack Bruce trains and M Hellyer rides at 123.4kg from barrier 5.
Warrior Bae is the each-way type. Three placings from four recent runs, a second last time, and a placing on the only course start, with D L Turner from barrier 2. There’s no win in that stretch, which is why I’d rather have Warrior Bae for the place than the win.
Stormland comes from C Maher, the best-strike trainer on the card here, but four runs lately have produced one placing and the eighth last time is hard to forgive. Cryptic Beauty, also from the Bruce stable, has two placings from three recent starts and should run on.
Win on Better Not Slip. Each-way on Warrior Bae.
Race 8: Attwood Marshall Lawyers Hcp (C4), 5:33PM, 1200m
Shelstein‘s scratching takes away the horse with the strongest recent form, and that changes how I’d play the finale. Volcanic Love, Zouthur and Cool Panels are out too, leaving 12 runners in a wide-open sprint.
If forced, The Gambling Greek. Third last start, placed on the only Gold Coast run, and B Lerena rides for the Sears stable from barrier 5 at 128.9kg. Caxton Lass is the each-way danger. Bottom weight of 119kg, barrier 2, two placings from five recent starts and a placing from the only course visit, though trainer R L Heathcote has one winner from 30 runners here.
True Amor is the stable runner to respect, as Chris and Corey Munce win a quarter of their Gold Coast races, but True Amor carries the biggest weight and three recent runs have produced no placings. Greyzous has a win from three course starts. Treat this as a watch race.
Small win on The Gambling Greek. No more than that.
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Where the money goes
NAP: Out Of Luck (Race 3, 2:16PM). Two straight wins, three placings from five course starts, and the jockey with the best strike rate at the track. In a field of seven, I’m not sure who beats Out Of Luck.
Value: Decadad (Race 5, 3:39PM). Three seconds in a row before a fifth, a course win, and a much kinder gate than Dirty Harry. Markets weren’t up when I wrote this, but if Decadad drifts on the fifth last time, take the odds.
Banker: Show’em Who’s King (Race 6, 4:24PM). Last-start winner, the rail gate and the Peisley and Shailer combination that keeps landing here.
Each-way: Warrior Bae (Race 7, 4:59PM). Three placings from four recent runs and a placing at the track. The same honest run every time.
Course angle: D Peisley riding for P L Shailer. Five wins and 13 placings from 19 rides together at the Gold Coast, with Show’em Who’s King and debutant Denver Bronco carrying the colours today.
If Shailer keeps booking Peisley at this rate, the pairing will be the first name I check on every Gold Coast racing tips card through the summer.
FAQ
What time does the first race start at the Gold Coast on Saturday?
Race 1, the Revelstone Stud Mdn Hcp over 1200m, jumps at 1:06PM. The last, the Attwood Marshall Lawyers Hcp (C4), goes at 5:33PM, with eight races on a Good to Soft track.
Who are the leading trainers and jockeys at the Gold Coast?
T J Gollan has the most local winners among today’s trainers with 23 from 149 starters, while P L Shailer has placed 23 of 38 runners here. B Lerena has ridden 14 winners from 113 rides, and Benjamin Osmond has 13 from 63.
What are the best bets at the Gold Coast today?
Out Of Luck in Race 3 is the top pick after two straight wins. Show’em Who’s King in Race 6 is the banker, and Warrior Bae in Race 7 is the each-way play with three placings from four recent runs.
Where can I find the best Gold Coast odds?
Live bookmaker prices weren’t up at the time of writing. Compare the bookmakers listed above once markets open, and check the each-way terms in Race 7, where Warrior Bae has been finishing close without winning.