Werribee Racing Tips 24 April — can the stayers make it pay?
Eagle Farm Racing Tips 25 April — can Lupine stay unbeaten here?
Eagle Farm Racing Tips 25 April — can Lupine stay unbeaten here?
Lupine turns up at Eagle Farm with the sort of record that makes you look twice, even before you start pulling the race apart. He has won on both visits to this track, and he lands in the day’s deepest race where positioning, not hype, decides it. That’s the spine of the meeting for me: a few progressive types with proper momentum, a couple of old hands trying to hold their marks in the weights, and one or two that are going to need the race run exactly to suit.
There are four races on a turf track, and you’ll get my Eagle Farm racing tips race-by-race with a clear betting stance each time. Where the course history is meaningful, I’ll lean on it. Where it’s just a single run at the venue, I’ll treat it as what it is: a clue, not a badge of honour.
Eagle Farm — the setup
We are working with limited “proper” course history across these fields, so I’m not going to pretend Eagle Farm specialists are falling out of the sky. A handful do have emerging patterns, though, and it matters because Eagle Farm can punish anything that overraces or gets cluttered away at the wrong time.
Among today’s runners, two horses bring the kind of track record you can actually reference without blushing: Bundella has 2 wins from 3 at Eagle Farm, and Savagery Vibe has placed in all three trips here.
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| Horse | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bundella | 3 | 2 | 2 | 66.67 | 66.67 |
| Savagery Vibe | 3 | 1 | 3 | 33.33 | 100.00 |
Jockey-wise, there’s one number that’s actually worth taking to the bank at this track: Ben Thompson has had 58 rides here for 14 wins and 32 placings, which is strong volume and strong strike. Jace Mcmurray and Ryan Maloney both have the depth to trust as well, each with 40 plus rides and place rates over 50 percent. If you’re looking for a stable angle, T J Gollan has 120 runners at Eagle Farm for 16 wins and 55 placings, which is as reliable a “he aims them here” signal as you’ll get on the card.
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Thompson | 58 | 14 | 32 | 24.14 | 55.17 |
| Jace Mcmurray | 40 | 7 | 21 | 17.50 | 52.50 |
| Ryan Maloney | 42 | 5 | 23 | 11.90 | 54.76 |
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T J Gollan | 120 | 16 | 55 | 13.33 | 45.83 |
| R L Heathcote | 49 | 8 | 16 | 16.33 | 32.65 |
| C J Waller | 39 | 7 | 13 | 17.95 | 33.33 |
Race-by-race Eagle Farm predictions
Race 1: Sky Racing (Bm78) — 11:45, 1312m
The contender I want to be with is Blakemore Avenue. The map gives her every chance to stalk from gate 3, and the recent form says she’s not here to make up numbers: her last five runs in the past three months read like a horse that’s turned the corner, with three wins and four top-three finishes. That’s a proper winning profile, not a “got a result once” spike.
This is also one of those races where you have to respect the yard. Gollan saddles a couple of live ones and, at Eagle Farm, he places almost half his runners. Blakemore Avenue doesn’t need to be a track specialist to win here; she just needs the run she’s likely to get.
The danger is Joy A Plenty from barrier 2. She’s flying on raw form (212511), and if she controls the first half of the race without spending petrol, she can make the rest chase too early. The query is that her trainer has only had one runner at Eagle Farm in this dataset and it finished unplaced, so there’s no proven “we target this circuit” edge to lean on.
Staking: Win bet Blakemore Avenue. Small saver quinella with Joy A Plenty if you want cover against the on-pace run.
Race 2: Resinc Solar Charge Of Beersheba (Bm78) — 12:18, 1312m
Here’s the question that matters: does the track record trump the weight? Bundella draws barrier 1 and arrives in the kind of form that forces you to take her seriously (5-4111), and she has won 2 of 3 at Eagle Farm. That’s an emerging pattern, and it’s the sort of horse that can turn a handicap into a training exercise if she finds the rail and breathes.
I’m also happy with the stable intent. Gollan has numbers at this track that mean something, and Chelsea Baker is a rider who can pinch cheap sectionals when the inside is the place to be.
The one that can spoil it is Let’sfacethemusic. Two wins on the bounce (453-11) is the right trajectory coming into this grade, and if the speed is on and they overdo it up front, he’s the sort that can sit off them and bring one run. I’m less keen to launch at Swiss Exile under 62.9kg and a wide-ish draw, even with a strong stable attached, because that’s a lot of work to do in a race that looks tactical.
Staking: Win bet Bundella. If you’re playing exotics, save with Let’sfacethemusic running top two.
Race 3: John Baker (Bm85) — 12:53, 1094m
The market problem here (when it forms) will be the topweight temptation. Plenty will want to forgive Pre Eminence off one run back (3111-8) and stick with the class, but at 59.5kg from gate 10 in a sharp 1094m, you are buying a lot of “things going right”.
I’d rather be with the improver at the weights: Moulin Miss. She has won on her only start at Eagle Farm, and she comes here off a fresh win (5215-1) with the sort of draw (gate 1) that gives Angela Jones options. Jones doesn’t have a massive edge at this track, but she’s ridden 44 times here and that experience counts when gaps appear and disappear quickly in these short races.
The danger is State In Texas. He’s got a winning streak in the recent form (4-1114), and he maps to get a run that keeps him out of trouble. The knock is the gate 11: he either has to spend early or trust he can loop them without losing momentum.
Staking: Each-way Moulin Miss. Keep it simple and keep the stake sensible in a race where speed and luck are always intertwined.
Race 4: Naked Accounting Rats Of Tobruk (Bm78) — 13:28, 1750m
The contrast makes this race: Lupine has the perfect “arrives and keeps winning” profile, while Retainer comes in with a brutal winning sequence and the kind of confidence a stable can ride. You can make a case either way. I’m taking the horse that has already proven he can do it around Eagle Farm: Lupine has won on both course visits, and his current form (5-0111) screams that he’s still going forward.
Yes, the draw (13) asks the question. But the 1750m gives time to blend in, and if Jace Mcmurray can find cover midfield, Lupine’s turn of foot becomes the separator late. Mcmurray’s Eagle Farm record is reliable too: 40 rides here for 7 wins and 21 placings, so he rides the track well enough to trust when decisions need to be made at the 600m.
Retainer is the obvious danger. His recent 90-day numbers stack up strongly: 6 runs for 4 wins and 5 placings. The one concern is that his only start at Eagle Farm in this dataset wasn’t pretty, and from gate 2 he may be forced to hold a position he doesn’t love if the speed comes across and parks him up.
Keep an eye on Diamond Epic as well. He has won on his only start at the track and comes in off three wins from his last four (21-511), but barrier 16 can turn a good horse into a spectator if the field strings out at the wrong time.
Staking: Win bet Lupine. Exacta saver Lupine and Retainer if you want to play the two main profiles.
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The plays
I’m not trying to turn this into a “spray and hope” card. The best bet is the one with the cleanest blend of momentum and intent, and that’s Lupine in the 1:28. Two wins from two runs at Eagle Farm is only two data points, but paired with the current winning run it’s enough to trust him to travel and finish.
The value angle comes earlier with Moulin Miss each-way in the 12:53. Gate 1 in a short race is worth money on its own, and she’s already won on her only visit here. If she’s fair in the market, I’ll be on.
If you’re building a multi, the banker is Bundella at 12:18. She’s 2 from 3 at the track and maps to get a low-stress run from barrier 1. That’s the safe construction piece.
The repeatable course angle is simple: respect the riders with volume here, especially Ben Thompson, and respect the stables that keep showing up with ammunition, especially Gollan. Next time you see those two things line up with a horse in form, you won’t need a long think.
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FAQ
What time does racing start at Eagle Farm today?
Eagle Farm kicks off at 11:45 with Race 1, the Sky Racing (Bm78) over 1312m.
Who are the top jockeys and trainers at Eagle Farm on today’s card?
On track history with proper volume, Ben Thompson leads the jockeys in this group: 58 rides at Eagle Farm for 14 wins and 32 placings. Among trainers, T J Gollan has the deepest Eagle Farm record on the page: 120 runners for 16 wins and 55 placings.
What are the best bets at Eagle Farm today?
My Eagle Farm best bets are Lupine (Race 4, 13:28) to win, and Bundella (Race 2, 12:18) as the safer multi anchor. For an each-way play, Moulin Miss (Race 3, 12:53) appeals from barrier 1 and she’s already won on her only run at this track.
Where can I find the best Eagle Farm odds?
Shop around on race morning. Odds feeds weren’t available for this meeting at the time of writing, so treat early prices as a guide and take the best available when markets firm up. You can compare prices through your preferred bookmakers and totes, and always watch late movement for the short-course races where map confidence matters.
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