Overview
Determined Rose has had one start, won it at Mornington, and now comes back to the same track in a Class 1 handicap with a jockey and trainer pairing that has placed seven times from eight runs together. That is the race I keep coming back to on a card that otherwise leans heavily on maidens and Benchmark 56 sprinters.
Thursday’s twilight meeting runs to eight races on a Good track, with Race 1 at 3:00PM and the last at 6:30PM. Four of the eight are maidens, so plenty of form lines are short, and only one horse on the whole card has more than two starts here. That pushes the weight onto stables and riders, and two of them stand out: A & S Freedman and Jerome Hunter. These Mornington racing tips go race by race, with a firm view in the races that deserve one, a staking line on each, and the live prices where the bookmakers had markets up at the time of writing. Only Races 1 and 2 were priced when this went together.
What Mornington gives us today
Limited course form across today’s fields: most runners have one or two starts here, and Dominant Miss is the only horse with more than two (four runs, no placings). So the useful track numbers belong to the people.
The jockey list is deep enough to be worth a table. These are the riders on today’s card with at least five Mornington rides, sorted by how often they hit the frame.
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liana Wood | 7 | 1 | 4 | 14.3 | 57.1 |
| Thomas Stockdale | 18 | 4 | 10 | 22.2 | 55.6 |
| J Mott | 36 | 5 | 17 | 13.9 | 47.2 |
| D W Stackhouse | 34 | 3 | 16 | 8.8 | 47.1 |
| Jabez Johnstone | 7 | 2 | 3 | 28.6 | 42.9 |
| W Egan | 14 | 2 | 6 | 14.3 | 42.9 |
| Beau Mertens | 23 | 3 | 9 | 13.0 | 39.1 |
The trainer numbers carry more weight. Jerome Hunter has only had ten runners here, but eight of them have placed.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Hunter | 10 | 3 | 8 | 30.0 | 80.0 |
| Shawn Mathrick | 7 | 3 | 5 | 42.9 | 71.4 |
| A & S Freedman | 16 | 5 | 9 | 31.3 | 56.3 |
| Jason Warren | 20 | 3 | 10 | 15.0 | 50.0 |
| C Maher | 20 | 6 | 9 | 30.0 | 45.0 |
| M Price & M Kent Jnr | 22 | 2 | 10 | 9.1 | 45.5 |
| Clayton Douglas | 20 | 4 | 7 | 20.0 | 35.0 |
Two other figures shape the day. Freedman wins with nearly a third of the stable’s Mornington runners and has four runners on the card. Ben, Will & JD Hayes bring the most volume, with 26 runners here for two wins, which is a reminder that a big team at a track is not the same as a strong one.
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Mornington race by race
Race 1: Sportsbet Jockey Watch Mdn Plate, 3:00PM, 1000m
Freedman doesn’t waste starts at Mornington, and Deadly Force looks like the reason this stable is here early. The five-year-old ran fifth on debut, which is modest on paper, but the market has Deadly Force at $1.65 with Bet Right and the connections give that price some backing. Freedman has won with five of 16 starters here, and Ben Shinn has won two of three Mornington rides. Shinn and Freedman have teamed up four times for two wins, one of them at this track.
The danger is a first starter. Top Ace is $5.00 with Bet Right for Clayton Douglas, who has four wins from 20 runners here, and Beau Mertens rides. Raining Fire is the other one to note: four starts, four placings, no win yet. At $8.00 with Unibet, that is a horse who keeps turning up for a share.
Deadly Force to win, and the multi leg of the day. Raining Fire is worth a small each-way ticket.
Race 2: Evergreen Turf (Bm56), 3:30PM, 1000m
Is Strong Box short enough at $2.70? The four-year-old has a win in the recent form and ran third at the only start in the last 90 days, while W Egan has placed on six of 14 Mornington rides. Lightly raced compared with most of this field, Strong Box gets the obvious tick for upside.
My problem with the price is Bifrost. The eight-year-old has placed twice from three starts in the last three months, and at $5.00 with Bet Right Bifrost offers almost double the return for a horse whose recent work stands up next to the favourite’s. Party Benefits ($4.80) and Bella Cinque ($5.50) fill out a tight market; Bella Cinque has placed in one of two starts here.
Strong Box is the likeliest winner, but Bifrost is the bet. Each-way on Bifrost.
Race 3: Tobin Brothers Celebrating Lives Mdn Plate, 4:00PM, 2450m
A 2450m maiden in October is a test of who stays, and few here have shown they can. Charlie Messy Hair has the steadiest recent record: three placings from five runs in the last 90 days. The gelding draws barrier one, with D W Stackhouse aboard, who has placed on 16 of 34 rides here. From the inside that should mean the run of the race and save ground over a long trip.
Clydebank Robber is the one to beat. Placed three times from seven runs in the last 90 days, Clydebank Robber is now eight, so experience is not the problem. The wide gate is. Raghnall placed at the only Mornington start of the career and could improve on it.
No live market at the time of writing. Small win bet on Charlie Messy Hair.
Race 4: Barmah Park Restaurant & Cellar Door Mdn Plate, 4:30PM, 1200m
Two profiles meet here: horses with a string of near misses, and a Freedman debutant. Iftihar is the most consistent of the near misses. The form line is a run of thirds, including at the only start in the last 90 days. Iftihar just needs the right race, and this field is no stronger than the ones that produced those placings.
Scoot is the unknown. Freedman starts Scoot with Shinn, the same pairing as Deadly Force in Race 1, and the stable’s Mornington record means you can’t dismiss a first starter. Big Kapow and Trouble’n Paradise have each placed once from two runs lately, but Trouble’n Paradise has drawn barrier 16.
Hard to be confident in a maiden with this many placegetters. Iftihar for a place, and watch Scoot in the market.
Race 5: 3mp Mdn Plate, 5:00PM, 1500m
Gilgeous has had three starts, all in the last 90 days, for two placings and an average finish just inside third. That is a maiden going the right way, and Busuttin and Young have placed with five of their 12 runners here. M J Dee rides from barrier 11, which is a little awkward over 1500m but manageable in a field of this quality.
The one I respect is Late Night Wonder. Seventh at the only start so far means the form isn’t there yet, but C Maher has won with six of 20 starters at Mornington and Jabez Johnstone has won two of seven rides here. That is a stable that knows the track. Parera placed at the only start here and gives the race a third option.
This opens the quaddie. Gilgeous to win, with Late Night Wonder included in the quaddie.
Race 6: Sportsbet More Places (Bm56), 5:30PM, 1500m
Brutify hits the frame more than anything in this race: four placings and a win from five runs in the last 90 days. Brutify also ran second last start. Thomas Stockdale rides, with ten placings from 18 Mornington rides with four wins, one of the best strike rates among the riders on this card. The catch is barrier 15 in a field of 15, which means either a long way around or a lot of luck.
Surperb Frost is the danger. The form shows three seconds in a row before a fourth, and Shinn is two from three at the track. Surperb Frost comes in without a run in the last 90 days, so fitness is the question. Wondering Spirit and Chambers Bay have each won one of their two starts here, and Angelotti has the rail.
Each-way Brutify, and go wide in the quaddie with Surperb Frost and Wondering Spirit.
Race 7: Peninsula Kubota Hcp (C1), 6:00PM, 1200m
This is the best race on the card, and the one I am most confident about. Determined Rose has had one start and won it, here, for $33,000 in prizemoney, which is serious money for a debut. Jerome Hunter has placed with eight of ten Mornington runners. D W Stackhouse rides, and the Stackhouse and Hunter partnership has produced three wins and seven placings from eight runs together. That is a stable and rider who keep producing results, with a horse that has already shown it handles the track.
The field has more depth than a typical Class 1. Mykindakandy won last start, at Mornington. Pol Rogeur and Coronation Turbo have both won their only start here. Alexander Thegreat won the only career start for Shawn Mathrick, who has five placings from seven Mornington runners. Crank, also for Freedman, has a win from two starts.
Mykindakandy is the clearest danger: in form, proven here and race-fit. Barrier 11 makes it harder for Determined Rose, but a debut winner over this track should be good enough to overcome it.
Win bet on Determined Rose, used as the single in the quaddie. No market was up when this was written, so check the price before you commit to a big stake.
Race 8: Sportsbet Race Replays (Bm56), 6:30PM, 1200m
Yellowknife has the strongest recent record in the last race: three runs in the last 90 days, a win and two seconds. That is form to rely on in a Benchmark 56 sprint. The concerns are the people rather than the horse. Jackson Radley is yet to win from ten Mornington rides, and the Hayes stable has two wins from 26 runners here.
Pull My Finger is the danger, with a win and three placings from five runs in the last 90 days and a placing at the only Mornington start. Diamanda, now ten, won one of four recent starts, and Chelsea Thompson won on the only ride here.
Yellowknife to win, with Pull My Finger as the saver in exactas and the quaddie.
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Where the money goes
NAP: Determined Rose (Race 7, 6:00PM). One start, one Mornington win, and a stable that has placed with eight of its ten runners here. No improvement needed to win a Class 1.
Value: Bifrost (Race 2, 3:30PM). $5.00 with Bet Right. Two placings from three starts in the last 90 days, and the market rates Bifrost a clear second best to a favourite with only one run in the last 90 days.
Banker: Deadly Force (Race 1, 3:00PM). $1.65 with Bet Right. Not much of a price, but Freedman and Shinn are the strongest combination on the card and this is the right horse to lead off a multi.
Each-way: Raining Fire (Race 1, 3:00PM). $8.00 with Unibet. Four starts, four placings. Even if Deadly Force wins, a place looks the likeliest result.
Course angle: Jerome Hunter. Eight placings from ten Mornington runners, and three wins and seven placings from eight runs with Stackhouse. When the two team up here, they are worth backing.
If Determined Rose wins this well, Class 1 grade won’t hold the horse for long, and a city Saturday is the logical next step.
Mornington racing tips FAQ
What time does racing start at Mornington today?
Race 1, the Sportsbet Jockey Watch Maiden Plate over 1000m, jumps at 3:00PM. The eight races run every half hour, finishing with the Sportsbet Race Replays Benchmark 56 at 6:30PM, and the Peninsula Kubota Handicap goes at 6:00PM.
Who are the top jockeys and trainers at Mornington?
Thomas Stockdale has won four of 18 Mornington rides and placed on ten. J Mott has the most wins among today’s riders here, with five from 36. Among trainers, C Maher has six wins from 20 runners, A & S Freedman five from 16, and Jerome Hunter has placed with eight of ten.
What are the best bets at Mornington today?
Determined Rose in Race 7 is the best bet. Deadly Force in Race 1 is the banker, Bifrost in Race 2 the value at $5.00, and Raining Fire in Race 1 the each-way play at $8.00.
Where can I find the best odds for Mornington races?
Compare the bookmakers in our table above. At the time of writing, Bet Right had the best price on Deadly Force at $1.65 and Bifrost at $5.00, and Unibet had Raining Fire at $8.00. Races 3 to 8 were not yet priced.