Ascot Racing Tips 10 Oct 2026 — can Ochre land the early blow?
Seymour Racing Tips 11 Oct 2026 — can Maher own the arvo?
Opening
There’s a proper pattern staring you in the face at Seymour today: Ciaron Maher brings runners here and they show up. He’s had 27 starters at the track for 8 wins and 19 placings, which is the sort of body of work you can actually lean on, not a two-run coincidence. Add a Good to Soft surface and a couple of staying BM66s late, and the meeting reads like one of those cards where the stable strength and the map matter as much as raw talent.
You’re getting five races on turf, and I’m treating it like a mate-to-mate form chat rather than a spreadsheet: who’s trending the right way, who lands the run, and where the weights and barriers force a decision. These Seymour racing tips are written to get you to the bets quickly, but with enough reasoning that you can disagree intelligently.
Seymour — the setup
Good to Soft at Seymour tends to reward horses that can hold a position and sustain a run, rather than the ones that need everything to go perfectly. With a few big fields early and the two 2187m BM66s to close, I’m expecting the meeting to turn into a test of efficiency: save ground, don’t make two moves, and don’t give away soft lengths from awkward gates.
Limited horse course form across today’s fields. Most runners either have one or two starts here, so I’m leaning more on current form and stable intent than trying to crown track “specialists”.
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Jockeys at Seymour worth trusting today
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M J Dee | 21 | 6 | 12 | 28.57 | 57.14 |
| Jordan Childs | 17 | 4 | 12 | 23.53 | 70.59 |
| Craig Williams | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40.00 | 60.00 |
| D W Stackhouse | 23 | 5 | 11 | 21.74 | 47.83 |
| J Mott | 22 | 4 | 11 | 18.18 | 50.00 |
| W Gordon | 18 | 3 | 9 | 16.67 | 50.00 |
Trainers with meaningful Seymour volume
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C Maher | 27 | 8 | 19 | 29.63 | 70.37 |
| D T O’Brien | 21 | 5 | 10 | 23.81 | 47.62 |
| T Busuttin & N Young | 19 | 4 | 8 | 21.05 | 42.11 |
| M Price & M Kent Jnr | 28 | 4 | 16 | 14.29 | 57.14 |
| G M Begg | 7 | 3 | 6 | 42.86 | 85.71 |
| Ben, Will & JD Hayes | 34 | 5 | 13 | 14.71 | 38.24 |
Race-by-race
Race 1: Gravelista – Uci Gravel World Series Sun 25 Oct Mdn Plate — 12:30, 1750
The contender is Handsome Missile. He’s not flashy, but the profile is exactly what you want in a maiden at this trip: he keeps putting himself in the finish (form 22723) and that’s usually the tell that the win’s coming when the map finally gives him clean air. Gate 2 helps a stack, and Ben Allen only needs to be even a touch positive to land one off the speed and avoid the scrubbing match.
The danger I’m taking seriously is More Foxie. Only two runs on the page (33), but that’s the kind of “I belong” form that can jump quickly in these mid-distance maidens, and barrier 4 gives J Mott options if the tempo gets messy.
Quick note on Brilliant Bull Ant: six straight runs in the money mix (466222) reads well, but barrier 12 at 1750 around Seymour is the sort of draw that forces you to spend petrol early or take your medicine and go back. Either way, you’re relying on luck.
Play: Win bet Handsome Missile. Small saver quinella with More Foxie if you like insurance.
Race 2: Go Seymour Go Nagambie Mdn Plate — 13:00, 1312
This is the market problem race even without seeing a board: plenty of unknowns, but one runner has already shown it can both win and back it up. Youmzaa comes in off form 21 and lands barrier 3, which is exactly where you want to be at this trip when the track’s got a bit of give. Over the last 90 days it’s two runs for a win and another placing, so it’s not just “got ability”, it’s currently executing.
The Craig Williams booking on Big Lap makes him the obvious threat. He’s only had the one start and ran 3rd, and from gate 5 he can take up a spot without doing anything fancy. Craig Williams also wins two of every five rides at Seymour in a small but valid sample (5 rides), so when he’s here he tends to make it count.
Action Point (Begg, Dee) is the knockout runner. Begg’s Seymour record is strong across seven runners and Dee rides this track as well as anyone, but you’re trusting stable confidence first-up rather than exposed form.
Play: Win bet Youmzaa. If you’re playing multiples, save with Big Lap.
Race 3: Tahbilk Mdn Plate — 13:30, 1312
The question here is simple: who actually wants to win a maiden, rather than just keep collecting cheques? I keep coming back to North Dakota. That 032 formline says he’s already good enough to be in the finish, and he draws barrier 4 to get every chance. H Coffey is a better rider than his Seymour strike suggests, but the map suits him here and he can be proactive.
The danger is Real Comedy for Price and Kent with Neindorf. He’s had one run and ran 2nd, which is often the cleanest guide in these older-horse maidens. You don’t need to overthink it: if he holds that level, he wins plenty of these.
I’m wary of Big Kapow (gate 16). The form (26525) is honest, but wide gates in big-ish fields at Seymour can turn into a three-wide grind on softish ground, and those are the runs that look brave in a replay and still don’t win.
Play: North Dakota each-way. Real Comedy the saver win bet if your budget allows.
Race 4: Godolphin Internship Program (Bm66) — 14:00, 2187
The shape is what sells this: a staying BM66 on a Good to Soft surface, where the winner is usually the horse that can travel, hold a spot, and lift again at the 300m when others are already treading water. Jean Georges looks the one most likely to get that run. He’s a 3yo with form 821, carries 122.3, and Craig Williams takes the steer. Over the last 90 days he’s had three runs for a win and another placing, which reads like a horse still on the way up rather than one stuck at its mark.
Ahab is the danger because he’s got actual Seymour evidence: placed in both course visits and has won here once. That’s not a “specialist” call, but it’s enough to say he handles the joint, and Zac Moore has a proper record at Seymour (six rides for three wins).
One more that can absolutely make this uncomfortable is Melek (Maher, John Allen). He’s form 1-62, and you don’t need much imagination to see Maher landing another one at this track. The knock is barrier 4 is fine, but the race tempo will decide whether he gets a cheap run or has to work early.
Play: Win bet Jean Georges. Exacta saver with Ahab if you want cover for the proven stayer.
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18+ T&C’s Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
18+ T&C’s Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
Race 5: Kilmore Ford (Bm66) — 14:35, 2187
The contrast I can’t ignore is Covert Thinking versus the rest of the map. Covert Thinking (Maher) comes from gate 9 with Jabez Johnstone on, and he’s already won on his only Seymour start. More important than that single-track data point: his recent 90-day profile is four runs for a win and two more placings, so he’s turning up and doing the job in this grade band.
Ragazzone is the danger on momentum alone. Form 51341 says he’s in a winning rhythm, and barrier 8 is workable. If he lands outside the leader and controls the middle of the race, he can pinch it.
I’m also keeping Rock About safe in wider exotics if you play them. He’s only had two runs (72) and that kind of early consistency can spike quickly when they get out to a trip that suits. His 90-day snapshot is just one run though, so you’re betting potential more than proof.
Play: Win bet Covert Thinking. If you want a smaller, more conservative angle: Covert Thinking to win, saver on Ragazzone.
The plays
I’m happy to make this a two-bet card rather than spray at everything. The best anchor is Covert Thinking in the last: Maher at Seymour is a real advantage over time, and the horse’s current form says he’s still holding his edge in BM66 grade. That’s the one I’d build around for Seymour best bets and any small multiples.
The value angle sits earlier with Handsome Missile in Race 1. Three placings from his last five says he’s been thereabouts without landing the right run, and the inside draw gives him his chance to stop finding one better. I’m also forgiving Jean Georges if the market drifts; that 3yo profile with a light weight at 2187 is exactly how these staying races get won when the older legs start to feel it late.
One course angle to carry forward: when M J Dee is on a live chance at Seymour, treat it seriously. Twenty-one rides here for six wins and twelve placings is volume and efficiency together, not a streak. Next meeting, I’m starting my Seymour predictions with Dee’s mounts before I look anywhere else.
FAQ
What time does racing start at Seymour today?
Seymour kicks off at 12:30 with the 1750m maiden plate (Race 1).
Who are the top trainers and jockeys at Seymour on today’s numbers?
Trainer-wise, Ciaron Maher has the deepest Seymour record in today’s data: 27 runners for 8 wins and 19 placings. In the saddle, M J Dee leads the meaningful-volume riders today with 21 rides at Seymour for 6 wins and 12 placings, while Jordan Childs hits the frame often here (12 placings from 17 rides).
What are the best bets at Seymour today?
If you want one, make it Covert Thinking in Race 5 (14:35, 2187m). He’s already won at Seymour on his only start here, and his last 90 days read well: 4 runs for 1 win and 3 placings overall. The other play is Handsome Missile in Race 1 (12:30, 1750m) off a string of near-misses (form 22723) from a soft gate.
Where can I find the best odds for Seymour races?
Prices weren’t available in the feed for this meeting at publish time, so shop around with your preferred bookmaker closer to jump. If you’re comparing firms, focus on the win price for my main anchors: Covert Thinking (Race 5) and Handsome Missile (Race 1). That’s usually where the biggest differences show up on provincial cards like this.
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