Overview
L J Meech and Tom Dabernig have teamed up 25 times at Warrnambool for five wins and 19 placings, and they bring two of the most reliable profiles on Thursday’s card in Villa Grande and Just My Lot. That partnership is the thread running through these Warrnambool racing tips, but it isn’t the whole story. C Maher sends four runners to a track where his stable wins more than a fifth of the time, Beau Mertens rides two progressive horses for the Matt Jenkins stable, and the closing benchmark sprint looks a straight fight between a course winner and a horse that keeps finding the frame.
Eight races on a Good track, starting at 3:00PM local time with a 1,000m maiden and finishing with a Bm62 sprint over the same trip at 6:30PM. The first three races are maidens, the fourth a staying maiden over 2,000m, and the back half is all Bm62 handicaps. Below you’ll find the course form worth trusting, a view on every race and the four bets I’d actually place.
Warrnambool racing tips: what the track gives us
Unusually for a midweek country card, there’s real course history to work with. Eight of today’s runners have three or more starts at the track, so the horse table earns its spot, although most of those numbers point to who to avoid rather than who to back.
| Horse | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spanish Snitzel | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 17% |
| Both Sides Now | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 50% |
| Just My Lot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| Northern Gold | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 33% |
| Endless Fury | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 33% |
| Winter Arc | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 33% |
| A Little Reward | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Super Snitch | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
The riding ranks are deep. These are the jockeys with at least five rides here, sorted by how often they hit the frame.
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beau Mertens | 7 | 2 | 4 | 28.6% | 57.1% |
| MS L J Meech | 57 | 9 | 31 | 15.8% | 54.4% |
| B Rawiller | 17 | 3 | 9 | 17.6% | 52.9% |
| E J Walsh | 8 | 2 | 4 | 25.0% | 50.0% |
| W Gordon | 51 | 11 | 22 | 21.6% | 43.1% |
| D Yendall | 44 | 6 | 16 | 13.6% | 36.4% |
| Declan Bates | 36 | 7 | 13 | 19.4% | 36.1% |
| John Allen | 49 | 7 | 16 | 14.3% | 32.7% |
On the training side, Maher is the standout on volume, and Adam Chambers has a striking record from a smaller sample.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P Koumis | 8 | 1 | 6 | 12.5% | 75.0% |
| Adam Chambers | 11 | 4 | 6 | 36.4% | 54.5% |
| C Maher | 45 | 10 | 24 | 22.2% | 53.3% |
| Tom Dabernig | 67 | 12 | 32 | 17.9% | 47.8% |
| Aaron Purcell | 43 | 3 | 17 | 7.0% | 39.5% |
| Shane Jackson | 61 | 11 | 24 | 18.0% | 39.3% |
| Symon Wilde | 82 | 9 | 28 | 11.0% | 34.1% |
Two things jump out. W Gordon wins more than one in five of his rides here, the best strike rate among the busy jockeys. And Aaron Purcell’s runners keep running into the placings without winning: three wins from 43 starters is a warning for anyone backing his horses straight out.
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Race-by-race: Warrnambool predictions
Race 1: Jericho Cup Packages Available Mdn Plate, 3:00PM, 1,000m
Villa Grande is my pick, and the reason starts with the people around this runner. The three-year-old ran second on debut, which came at this track, and now lines up in a maiden carrying just 55kg against older horses lumping 59.5kg. Meech and Dabernig have combined for 19 placings from 25 runners at Warrnambool, and that’s the kind of hit rate you can build a multi around. Meech herself places in more than half of her 57 rides here.
Barrier 10 is the one knock over 1,000m, though Meech has ridden this track 57 times and knows when to commit. The market has Villa Grande at $2.80 with Unibet, right alongside Zercardy at $2.70 with Unibet. Zercardy has been placed once in four tries (form 3455) and just doesn’t look a horse that finds the line. The real danger could be the first starter Niccotein ($7.00 with Unibet), because Adam Chambers has won four from 11 at this course and booked Tom Madden. Back Villa Grande to win and keep a saver on Niccotein.
Race 2: May Racing Carnival Now On Sale Mdn Plate, 3:30PM, 1,300m
Is a debut second at this track enough to make Semper Augustus the right favourite? I think so, narrowly. He ran second on debut here, so the track holds no surprises, and proven placing form is what separates him from Black Aces. Tom Madden takes the ride, and at $3.70 with Bet Right he’s a fair price rather than a gift.
The horse I want on side as well is Prestige Erick. His form line reads 42424, which tells you he’s never been far away, and Beau Mertens has won two of his seven rides here. At $5.00 with Unibet from barrier 13, the wide draw is the reason he’s that price. Black Aces ($4.20 with Bet Right) has Maher’s backing but form of 857 doesn’t scream maiden winner yet. Semper Augustus to win, and Prestige Erick win and place as the value bet.
Race 3: Your Xmas Party At The Bool Mdn Plate, 4:00PM, 1,700m
The market problem here is Girl With A Pearl. The favourite is $3.00 with Unibet off two runs that finished fourth and seventh, and while Declan Bates is a good booking with seven wins from 36 rides at the course, that price leans on potential rather than performance.
Who I Think I Am has done the work. Three placings from four starts in the last 90 days, an average finish of 2.5 across that stretch, and the most recent runs read 2, 4, 2. Maher wins 22% of the time here and hits the frame more than half the time, and this runner has 57.5kg from barrier 8. Carleen Hefel is light on course experience with five rides, but the horse has done the hard part already, and $3.80 with Unibet is the better side of the market. This is my NAP of the day.
For a bigger price, Cowboykickedfive has placed four times in his last five runs (form 037333) and Mertens takes the ride. He’s $8.00 with Unibet and carries the top weight of 59.5kg, which is the reason he keeps finishing third. Who I Think I Am to win, Cowboykickedfive each-way as a small saver.
Race 4: Matko Hire Mdn Plate, 4:30PM, 2,000m
This staying maiden looks the weakest race on the card, and there are no live prices up yet, so tread lightly. Conjurer gets my vote. He ran second last start after a spell (form 586-52), has a placing from two runs at the course and draws barrier 1, which matters at 2,000m. E J Walsh has won two of his eight rides here.
Winter Arc is the obvious danger. The three-year-old has been placed in two of five runs in the last 90 days, carries only 57kg and knows the track with three previous starts here. Endless Fury, also with three course runs, has improved with each start (653). Small win bet on Conjurer, or treat it as a watch race.
Race 5: The Midfield Group (Bm62), 5:00PM, 1,400m
Two horses on a winning run, two very different routes to get here. Prestige Zerprise is the Matt Jenkins stable’s in-form galloper, with back-to-back wins and an average finish of 1.8 from five runs in the last 90 days. Four of those five runs ended in the placings. Diamond Eye has also won his last two (34211) and has placed in all three runs in that window.
I side with Prestige Zerprise. He has 60kg, half a kilo more than Diamond Eye, but barrier 7 gives Mertens options and the 90-day body of work is bigger. Diamond Eye comes from barrier 10, and Zac Spain has only four rides at the course, so there’s more guesswork about how that sets up. High Falls is the wildcard. He won his only start for Shane Jackson and John Allen, and three-year-olds stepping from a maiden win into a Bm62 can find more. No odds yet, but Prestige Zerprise is a win bet. If he opens shorter than about $3, take the exacta with Diamond Eye instead.
Race 6: Cassign (Bm62), 5:30PM, 1,200m
With Artistic Genius and Singles Moment both scratched, this sprint lost two of its course performers, and the shape now favours whoever can sit handy. King West fits. His last four runs read 3, 4, 1, 2, and he’s placed in two of his three runs in the last 90 days, one of them a win. Caitlin Hollowood has had only two rides here, and she placed on both, winning one.
Port Louis is the danger. He won last start and has three wins from his last six (101051), but he carries 63.5kg, four kilos more than King West. Over 1,200m that weight gap matters. King West to win.
Race 7: Sungold Milk (Bm62), 6:00PM, 1,700m
Dabernig doesn’t send Just My Lot here to make up numbers. The four-year-old has placed in all three starts at Warrnambool, has been placed in four of five runs in the last 90 days including a win, and the latest runs read 2, 3, 1, 2. Just My Lot gets in with 56kg, the lightest weight among the main chances.
The barrier (10 in a field of 15) and the lack of a win here so far are why I’m not going win-only. Cute Girl is the horse to beat, with two wins from five runs in the last 90 days and placings in four of them for Andrew Bobbin and Shayleigh Ingelse. Both Sides Now has won two of four here but form of 760007 suggests the course record belongs to an earlier version of the horse. Asal for W Gordon is the roughie worth watching. Just My Lot each-way.
Race 8: Tab (Bm62), 6:30PM, 1,000m
Course form against consistency. Ziggy Bama has won on his only visit to Warrnambool, and his last three runs read 1, 3, 1 for an average finish of 1.67. Barrier 8 isn’t ideal over 1,000m, but a horse in this form can overcome it.
Nordic Strike is the consistent one. He’s placed in all four runs in the last 90 days and placed on his only start here, and Maher’s runners deserve respect at this track. The problem is that he keeps finding one better, and 60kg is a kilo more than Ziggy Bama carries. Salaria won last start (36-321) for Mertens and is the outsider with the most upside. Ziggy Bama to win, Nordic Strike in exactas.
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Where the money goes
Odds quoted are correct at time of writing and will move before the jump.
NAP: Who I Think I Am (Race 3, 4:00PM). Three placings from four recent runs, a trainer who wins here regularly, and a favourite whose form doesn’t stack up next to this. $3.80 with Unibet.
Value: Prestige Erick (Race 2, 3:30PM). A horse that has never finished worse than fourth in five starts shouldn’t be $5.00 with Unibet in a moderate maiden, even from a wide gate.
Banker: Villa Grande (Race 1, 3:00PM). Track-tested, light weight, and a partnership that places with three in every four runners here. $2.80 with Unibet.
Each-way: Just My Lot (Race 7, 6:00PM). Three runs here for three placings, and in with the lightest weight of the genuine contenders.
Course angle: Meech riding for Dabernig. They’ve placed with 19 of their 25 runners together here, and both their rides today come with track form already banked.
Keep a note of how Maher’s four runners go, because a 22% strike rate here suggests he picks Warrnambool spots carefully and that’s worth following through the summer.
FAQ
What time does racing start at Warrnambool today?
The first race, the Jericho Cup Packages Available Mdn Plate over 1,000m, jumps at 3:00PM local time. The eight-race card finishes with the Tab (Bm62) at 6:30PM, with races every 30 minutes.
Who are the top jockeys and trainers at Warrnambool?
Among today’s riders, L J Meech has the most course rides at 57, with nine wins and 31 placings. W Gordon has the best win rate of the busy riders at 21.6% from 51 rides. C Maher leads the busier trainers at 22.2% from 45 runners, while Tom Dabernig has 12 winners from 67 runners here.
What are the best bets at Warrnambool today?
Our Warrnambool racing tips are led by Who I Think I Am in Race 3 as the NAP, with Villa Grande in Race 1 as the banker. Prestige Erick in Race 2 is the value play and Just My Lot in Race 7 is the each-way bet.
Where can I find the best odds for Warrnambool races?
Prices on the first three races are live now, with Unibet and Bet Right sharing the top odds; for example, Unibet has Villa Grande at $2.80 and Bet Right has Semper Augustus at $3.70. Markets for Races 4 to 8 haven’t opened yet, so compare the bookmakers in our list above once they go up.
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