Overview
Wallace Station has been to Newcastle twice and won both times, and on Saturday the three-year-old comes back for the Schneider Electric (Bm64) with R Hutchings in the saddle for Michael Freedman. That jockey and trainer have teamed up seven times at this track for four wins. If you only read one race in these Newcastle racing tips, make it Race 6.
It is not a one-horse card, though. Emalyn has placed at all four of her Newcastle starts and won last time out, Puerto Banus has never missed the frame here either, and Nathan Doyle sends two runners from a stable that places with nearly six in every ten Newcastle starters.
The essentials: eight races on a Good to Soft turf track, the first at 1:20PM and the last at 5:54PM. Three maidens open the day and are short on exposed form, so stakes stay small early. The second half, from the 900m sprint in Race 4 through to the 1900m Cessnock Cup, is where I want to be involved. Only Race 1 had a live market at the time of writing.
Newcastle racing tips: how the track sets up
There is more course form on this card than usual. Ten of today’s runners have had three or more starts at Newcastle, though only Puerto Banus has won more than once here, and three others are winless, two of them from five visits apiece.
| Horse | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puerto Banus | 4 | 2 | 4 | 50.0 | 100.0 |
| Emalyn | 4 | 1 | 4 | 25.0 | 100.0 |
| Zousari | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 50.0 |
| Unjust | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 50.0 |
| Alabama Blitz | 3 | 1 | 1 | 33.3 | 33.3 |
| Sun To Me | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 33.3 |
| Mr Trackside | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 33.3 |
| No Statement | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Final Gift | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Tightrope Walker | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
K S Latham and Mitchell Bell carry the volume and both find the frame at half their rides. A Bullock wins with a quarter of his, and Leeshelle Small is close behind on a smaller book.
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Bell | 81 | 11 | 41 | 13.6 | 50.6 |
| K S Latham | 92 | 15 | 46 | 16.3 | 50.0 |
| Leeshelle Small | 31 | 7 | 14 | 22.6 | 45.2 |
| A Bullock | 50 | 12 | 22 | 24.0 | 44.0 |
| R Hutchings | 58 | 7 | 21 | 12.1 | 36.2 |
| William Stanley | 58 | 8 | 19 | 13.8 | 32.8 |
Among the stables, S I Singleton and Nathan Doyle have the best place rates, and Richard Litt converts almost a third of his Newcastle runners into winners. C J Waller and P M Perry each bring four runners, but Perry needs more than ten starters for every winner here.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S I Singleton | 16 | 4 | 11 | 25.0 | 68.8 |
| Nathan Doyle | 50 | 11 | 29 | 22.0 | 58.0 |
| Michael Freedman | 21 | 4 | 12 | 19.0 | 57.1 |
| Richard Litt | 29 | 9 | 15 | 31.0 | 51.7 |
| G Ryan & S Alexiou | 26 | 3 | 13 | 11.5 | 50.0 |
| C J Waller | 73 | 10 | 34 | 13.7 | 46.6 |
| Matthew Smith | 84 | 10 | 32 | 11.9 | 38.1 |
| P M Perry | 105 | 10 | 34 | 9.5 | 32.4 |
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Race by race: Newcastle predictions
Race 1: Aps Industrial Mdn Hcp, 1:20PM, 1250m
Areesea is the most reliable maiden in this field and the market agrees, with $2.80 with Bet Right the shortest price on the board. The form line of 5, 3, 2, 4 shows a three-year-old who keeps running into the placings, two of them from three starts since mid July, and she ran fourth on her only Newcastle visit. K S Latham rides, and nobody on the card has won more races here. Barrier 5 lets him settle handy without being trapped.
The one that interests me at the odds is Howzat Harry. The six-year-old ran second at his latest start and second on his only trip to Newcastle, and $6.50 with Unibet is a fair return for a horse that has shown he handles the track. The unknown is Cadmean, a first starter for C J Waller at $5.00 with Bet Right. Waller places with almost half his Newcastle runners, so the newcomer is no passenger.
Zousari has been placed twice from four course starts without winning and looks a place chance at best. Geryon and Another Lahar were missing from the live market, so check they are confirmed starters.
Areesea to win, with a small each-way bet on Howzat Harry.
Race 2: Cabac Mdn Hcp, 1:55PM, 1250m
Thirteen maidens and not much to separate them. If forced, I land on Michonne’s Katana, whose form of 4, 7, 4, 3 has her finishing closer lately, and the last-start third is the best recent run in the race. G Ryan and S Alexiou place with half their Newcastle runners, and Mitchell Bell finds the frame at half his rides here. Barrier 3 should give her a soft run.
Busy Bee is the danger with the higher ceiling. Two seconds came before a fifth last time, for M S Minervini, and that early form is the best of the unplaced lot. Social Graces debuts for G Waterhouse and A Bott and is impossible to rate, while Wild Yarn has one start behind her but comes from the R J Quinton stable, which has won four times from seven Newcastle runners. Sequoia gets the Hutchings and Freedman pairing but ran eighth on her one visit here.
Markets were not up when this was written. Small each-way on Michonne’s Katana, and treat it as a watch race otherwise.
Race 3: Electra Cables Super Mdn Plate, 2:30PM, 900m
Does a fresh horse with a strong last run beat the fit ones who keep finding a way to lose? That is the puzzle here. Doralee ran second at her latest start, but that run came more than three months ago and she has not raced since. A Bullock rides, which helps, since he wins with a quarter of his Newcastle mounts. The wide draw in 12 is the catch over 900m.
Lady Talea is the fit alternative. Five runs in the last 90 days have produced two placings, she ran third on her one Newcastle start, and barrier 1 is a gift in a sprint this short. Capdiva also placed on her single course visit and ran second at her latest start. Unjust is the other with local form, two placings from four Newcastle starts, and carries one of the lighter weights with Leeshelle Small aboard.
Hit The Runway is a non-runner. No live market yet. Lady Talea for the place is the bet I would actually make; Doralee only if she is ready to go first up.
Race 4: Klein Tools Provincial (Bm64), 3:05PM, 900m
Emalyn is the safest horse on the card and I will build the day around her. Four starts at Newcastle, four placings, one win, and she arrives off a win at her only run in the last three months. That pattern is the closest thing to a certainty in a sprint handicap.
The connections fit, too. Nathan Doyle has had 50 runners at this track for 11 winners, and 29 of them have filled a place. Liberty Smyth has won four races from 23 rides here, and has won one of four rides for Doyle at Newcastle. Barrier 6 is fine, and Emalyn carries less than Stratafy, the top weight.
Stratafy is the threat. A form line of 3, 5, 2, 2, 1, 2 says this one is consistently in the finish, and barrier 3 offers a forward run. The problem is the weight and a jockey in Deon le Roux who is still looking for a first Newcastle winner from ten rides. Precious Girl won her only start here, and Alabama Hammer won one of two, so both add value underneath.
Our Emily and Executive Decision are non-runners, which takes eleven down to nine. Win bet on Emalyn, and she is my multi anchor.
Race 5: Nhp Electrical Engineering Products Midway Hcp (C1), 3:40PM, 1250m
Zouboy has the mystery; Coco Dior has the volume. Which kind of form wins out is the whole race. Zouboy has had a single start and won it at Newcastle, which is a data point rather than a pattern, but the Doyle stable does not run horses here for practice. William Stanley takes the ride and the weight is kind.
Coco Dior has a win and a second from two runs in the last 90 days, has collected the most prizemoney in the race over that stretch, and R Hutchings rides from barrier 6. El Qasabi won last start too, and David Pfieffer has seven placings from ten Newcastle runners, but he has not raced in three months. Sun To Me won his only recent start, though he is winless from three tries at this track.
Sabi Storm carries the top weight with a form line that has gone backwards. I can see Coco Dior beating my pick, so I will play Zouboy to win and take a saver on Coco Dior. No market at the time of writing.
Race 6: Schneider Electric (Bm64), 4:34PM, 1600m
This is the bet of the day. Wallace Station is two from two at Newcastle and has won two of three runs since July. The form line of 1, 5, 1 reads like a horse who bounces back quickly, and this track clearly suits.
The booking says the rest. R Hutchings has ridden for Michael Freedman seven times at Newcastle and won four, placing on five. Freedman himself places with 57% of his runners here. Barrier 4 should give Hutchings the choice of sitting behind the speed or rolling forward, and Wallace Station carries a kilo less than Mindgames.
The worry is Mindgames, unbeaten in two starts for John O’Shea and Tom Charlton with K S Latham aboard from gate 2. The pair have never met before today, so this is a profile call: proven local form against an unexposed horse who may have more in reserve. Autumn Sky won her only Newcastle start for Richard Litt, whose strike rate here is the best of any big stable. Varjak has placed at all three runs in the last 90 days without winning, and he looks the each-way spoiler.
Danish Fortune, Ghayoor and Saint Emilion are scratched from this race, trimming the field to eleven. Back Wallace Station to win, with Mindgames and Varjak underneath in exotics.
Race 7: Tle Jungle Juice Cup Conditional Hcp, 5:20PM, 1350m
Puerto Banus has been to Newcastle four times and placed on every visit, winning two. That is the kind of track record I trust in an eight-horse handicap. The last five runs read 0, 1, 9, 1, 2, with two wins and three placings over the past three months, and he has earned more prizemoney in that time than anyone else in the field. MS J Taylor and P M Perry have two wins and four placings from ten rides together here.
Oakfield Utah is the clear danger and could easily win. Two from two at Newcastle, two wins from four recent runs, and S I Singleton places with close to seven in ten of her Newcastle runners. The catch is top weight, about two and a half kilos more than Puerto Banus. Ellofadude has a win and two placings from three recent starts and gets in light.
The weight is the reason I lean to Puerto Banus, but Oakfield Utah‘s two from two keeps me from going too hard on the win. Each-way on Puerto Banus. No market yet.
Race 8: Datatech Newcastle Cessnock Cup (Bm72), 5:54PM, 1900m
Can Blenheim Girl go one better than her last-start second? The Waller four-year-old has a win and three placings from five starts since July, and has the most prizemoney of anyone in the race over that stretch. Reece Jones rides from barrier 8, which over 1900m gives him time to find cover.
Leica Storm is the steadier option, with three placings from five recent starts and a third on his only Newcastle run, and A Bullock is a significant booking. Matthew Smith also has Can’t Recall One, who won earlier this campaign but ran eighth last time. The Neasham pair, Falcon Lair and Freddie Bassett, come from a stable that has won only once from 48 runners here. Saint Emilion runs here after the Race 6 scratching.
A modest win bet on Blenheim Girl, with a saver on Leica Storm for the place.
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Where the money goes
NAP: Wallace Station (Race 6, 4:34PM). Two visits, two wins, and a jockey and trainer pairing with four wins from seven rides together here. Few horses on the card come to the track with a more complete profile.
Value: Howzat Harry (Race 1, 1:20PM). $6.50 with Unibet for a horse who ran second last start and second on his one Newcastle visit. The favourite is solid, but this is the overs in an opening maiden.
Banker: Emalyn (Race 4, 3:05PM). Placed at all four Newcastle starts, a winner last time, and from a stable that fills the frame with most of its runners here. The multi leg I would trust most.
Each-way: Puerto Banus (Race 7, 5:20PM). Four from four in the frame at this track. Oakfield Utah could beat him for the win, but the place looks the safer side.
Course angle: R Hutchings riding for Michael Freedman. Four wins from seven rides together at Newcastle, with Wallace Station and Sequoia carrying that pairing on Saturday.
If Freedman keeps booking Hutchings at Newcastle and the strike rate holds, that partnership will be the first name I look for at every meeting here this spring.
FAQ
What time does racing start at Newcastle on Saturday?
Race 1, the Aps Industrial Mdn Hcp over 1250m, jumps at 1:20PM. The last of the eight races, the Datatech Newcastle Cessnock Cup (Bm72) over 1900m, goes at 5:54PM on a Good to Soft track.
Who are the leading trainers and jockeys at Newcastle?
Nathan Doyle has 11 winners and 29 placings from 50 Newcastle runners, and Richard Litt has won with nine of 29. Among the riders, K S Latham has the most wins here with 15 from 92 rides, and Mitchell Bell finds the frame at half his rides.
What are the best bets at Newcastle today?
Wallace Station in Race 6 is the top pick after two wins from two Newcastle starts. Emalyn in Race 4 is the banker after placing at all four course visits, and Puerto Banus in Race 7 is the each-way play.
Where can I find the best Newcastle odds?
Only Race 1 had live prices at the time of writing, with Areesea at $2.80 with Bet Right and Howzat Harry at $6.50 with Unibet. Compare the bookmakers listed above once the later markets open.