Overview
Sunset Trail is the best bet on Sunday. His three runs since July have produced a win and a second, he comes into the opening race at Lismore off that second, and Archie McColm rides. McColm has three wins and seven placings from 11 Lismore rides, the best strike profile among the riders on that card, and from barrier three with 57.5kg the horse should find a spot without having to work.
That is one of three selections from three of the six meetings we previewed: Lismore, Horsham and Kalgoorlie. Two of them carry live prices. The third, the quaddie anchor at Kalgoorlie, is unpriced because that market wasn’t open when this was written.
The best bet
Sunset Trail, Lismore Race 1, 2:05, 2.70 with Neds.
Form and rider line up here. A win and a second from three runs since July says the horse is in form now, not three preps ago, and McColm’s record at the track means the booking is worth something. The draw does the rest: three with 57.5kg, which lets him settle where he likes in a 1536m handicap.
The danger is Latin Lights at 2.90 with Bet Right. It won two starts back for the Dunn stable and gets in 1kg lighter, but it finished fourth last time. The market has this as a two-horse race and we side with the one coming off the better run. She’s A Dame, four placings from four runs since July, is the each-way cover in the same race.
The value bet
Blue Valentine, Horsham Race 2, 2:10, 5.75 with Bet Right.
Three straight seconds, all inside the last 90 days, is about as consistent as a maiden gets. Trainer Tyler Donaldson-Aitken has only brought one runner to Horsham before, and it also ran second. The reason the price is this big is barrier 14: Luke Cartwright will have to give up ground or use the horse early over 1400m.
Best Terms is the one to beat at 2.20 with Unibet. It has been second three times and third once since a spell, but it has had no run in the past 90 days, so fitness is the question. At the odds, Blue Valentine is the each-way play, with the price allowing for the draw.
The quaddie angle
Morf, Kalgoorlie Race 5, 4:40.
Race 5 sits inside the Kalgoorlie quaddie (Races 3 to 6), and Morf is the horse to build it around. He has won his last two and has three wins from six runs at the track. Trainer Fernie has four of the runners in this Regional Championship heat, and stable jockey Lucy Fiore, who has won 20 of 84 rides at Kalgoorlie, chose Morf over Door Buster, Just Famous and Chipilly. Top weight is the only argument against him.
Door Buster is the danger with almost the same profile: three wins from six at the track, a win at his latest start and less weight. If he crosses from barrier six and controls the speed, it becomes a two-horse fight. Morf‘s market wasn’t open when this was written, so check the price before you play.
How these were picked
All three come from our full previews of Sunday’s six meetings: Townsville, Horsham, Nowra, Moe, Lismore and Kalgoorlie. We wanted bets you can price now, so the live market decided between selections with similar cases.
That is why some strong top picks are not here. Colleano at Townsville, Kool Kade at Nowra, Gina’s A Star at Horsham and Ocean’s Jen at Moe all have solid form cases, but no bookmaker was pricing their races when this was written. Of the priced bankers, Courting at Horsham and Regor at Nowra are the right multi legs but too short to stand alone, and Far And Wide at Townsville is up against a favourite in Bowdene. No race inside any of the six quaddies had a market up yet, so the quaddie pick went to the strongest form case of them all, and that was Morf.