Overview
Aurora Belle is the best bet of the day. She has raced three times for three wins, and in Race 3 at Geelong she meets a Benchmark 70 field with Ethan Brown aboard, a rider who has won three of his eight rides at the track. At $1.95 with Neds she is short, but nothing in that race has her record.
Three selections, drawn from the previews for five meetings: Geelong, Warwick Farm, Eagle Farm, Strathalbyn and Belmont Park. One comes from Geelong and two from Warwick Farm. Early markets were open for only a handful of races when this was written. The best and value bets carry live prices; the quaddie angle’s market was not open yet, so it has no price.
The best bet
Aurora Belle, Geelong Race 3, 1:50, 1.95 with Neds.
Three starts, three wins, and the one run in the last 90 days was a win too. The Hayes stable has her in a Benchmark 70 over 1422m from barrier 7, and Brown places on five of his eight Geelong rides. She is the shortest price on the Geelong card for good reason.
Lario is the danger. He has won two of his three Geelong starts and his last two runs read first and second, but he carries the most weight in the field. Misty Whisper has placed in both runs this spell. Back Aurora Belle to win.
The value bet
Prince Of Verona, Warwick Farm Race 2, 2:50, 7.50 with Unibet.
Two starts in the last 90 days, two wins, and the market still has five horses ahead of it. Zac Lloyd rides for Annabel Neasham and Rob Archibald from barrier 6, and Lloyd has placed on 41 of his 63 Warwick Farm rides. A runner on a two-race winning streak stepping into a Benchmark 68 should not be this price.
Our Emperor heads the betting at $3.70 with Bet Right and won its only previous Warwick Farm start, but its two runs in the window produced a seventh and an eighth. Rumdabar, with McDonald aboard, is the other threat. Prince Of Verona each-way at the price is the play.
The quaddie angle
Superfabulistic, Warwick Farm Race 6, 5:10.
Superfabulistic has been to Warwick Farm twice and won both. It has finished in the first three in each of its last six starts, with two wins among its last three, and Rachel King rides for Waterhouse and Bott, a combination that has placed in eight of its 11 rides here with three winners. From barrier 5, King can sit just behind the speed and wait.
Race 6 sits inside the Warwick Farm quaddie, which runs from Race 4 to Race 7, and this is the leg to go narrow. Storm Season is the danger: placed in all three of its Warwick Farm starts with one win, and a winner here on 5 October. Single Superfabulistic and spread in the other three legs.
How these were picked
All three come from the full previews for Geelong, Warwick Farm, Eagle Farm, Strathalbyn and Belmont Park. Price decided between close calls. Vin Santo at Eagle Farm, Vampi Queen at Belmont Park and Affaire Vue at Strathalbyn all have strong cases, but none of their races had a live market, while Aurora Belle did. For value, Fiorowngood at $8.50 in the Geelong opener was the alternative, but barrier 13 over 2625m is a bigger hurdle than anything Prince Of Verona faces.
The quaddie slot went to Superfabulistic over Vampi Queen and Bella Verona because it combines unbeaten course form with six straight top-three finishes and the strongest jockey and stable combination of the three. No quaddie race on any card was priced when this was written.