Overview
Love Story has had two starts and has finished first or second in both, and the second of them was a win. She now drops into a BM72 at Warwick Farm with Tim Clark aboard for Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott, a pairing that has won nine of its 31 starts together at this track. That combination is the sharpest edge on a Wednesday card that otherwise asks more questions than it answers.
There are six races on turf rated Good, starting with a maiden over 1400m at 3:00PM and closing with the BM88 over 1200m at 5:55PM. The quaddie runs from Race 3 to Race 6. These Warwick Farm racing tips cover every race, but be warned about prices: only the opening maiden had a live market when this was written, so the odds you see are all from Race 1. Chris Waller has a big team in that maiden, though his strike rate here is far lower than his volume would suggest, and that shapes how we approach the first leg.
Reading the Warwick Farm card
A Good track at Warwick Farm usually rewards horses that can hold a spot without working too hard. Course form among today’s horses is thin and not encouraging. Four runners have three or more starts here, and between them they have one placing and no wins.
| Horse | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manukau | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 25.0 |
| Knights Armour | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Hellbent On You | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 33.3 |
| Burj | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
The riders tell a far clearer story. Zac Lloyd has finished in the first three on 41 of his 63 rides here, which is a remarkable hit rate, and he has a ride in every race.
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zac Lloyd | 63 | 11 | 41 | 17.5 | 65.1 |
| C Schofield | 47 | 8 | 21 | 17.0 | 44.7 |
| Mollie Fitzgerald | 26 | 4 | 11 | 15.4 | 42.3 |
| Tim Clark | 62 | 11 | 26 | 17.7 | 41.9 |
| J B McDonald | 47 | 9 | 19 | 19.1 | 40.4 |
| Tom Sherry | 35 | 3 | 13 | 8.6 | 37.1 |
Among the stables, Waterhouse and Bott stand apart. Waller saddles more runners here than anyone, 167 of them, yet wins with only 12.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G Waterhouse & A Bott | 76 | 18 | 44 | 23.7 | 57.9 |
| John O’Shea & Tom Charlton | 17 | 4 | 9 | 23.5 | 52.9 |
| Michael Freedman | 28 | 5 | 14 | 17.9 | 50.0 |
| Matthew Smith | 43 | 9 | 21 | 20.9 | 48.8 |
| Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald | 50 | 7 | 24 | 14.0 | 48.0 |
| C J Waller | 167 | 12 | 60 | 7.2 | 35.9 |
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Warwick Farm predictions, race by race
Race 1: Asahi Super Dry Mdn Plate, 3:00PM, 1400m
Waller has numbers on his side in this maiden and not much else. Several of his acceptors carry no rider, but he still has five with jockeys booked, and the market has two of them at the top: The Roaring Sun at $3.70 and Quarterback at $3.90, both with Bet Right.
The Roaring Sun gets the vote. He has run second and third from two starts, and he placed on his only visit to Warwick Farm, so he has already handled the track. J R Collett rides, and while Collett’s record here is modest at three wins from 50 rides, the horse brings the stronger profile. Quarterback, with J B McDonald, has placed once from his one run in the last 90 days and is the obvious danger, and Snitzel’s Girl at $4.60 gets Zac Lloyd from barrier one.
The price to chase is outside the stable. My Ju Ju has finished second and third in his two starts, both inside the last 90 days, and his trainers J & G Lee have won with two of their three runners at Warwick Farm. At $26 with Bet Right, that is too long for a horse that has never missed the frame. Win on The Roaring Sun, and a small each-way bet on My Ju Ju.
Race 2: Yarraman Park Stud (Bm78), 3:35PM, 2400m
Does a two-race winning streak hold up over 2400m against two Waterhouse and Bott stayers? That is the whole race. Andron has won his last two, and he has two wins from six starts in the past 90 days for the Hawkes stable. Dylan Gibbons rides, and he has seven winners from 39 rides here.
The stable pair are both live. Criteria has placed in all three of his recent runs, one of them a win, and Savvy Spy has three placings from four, again with a win among them. Tim Clark is on Savvy Spy, which is the booking I would respect more. Knights Armour has been beaten in all four of his Warwick Farm starts, and Nkosi has not placed in three runs this window.
Seven runners, one of them carrying no rider, means the tempo could be soft over a staying trip, which suits the horse in form and with the momentum. Back Andron to win, with a small saver on Savvy Spy.
Race 3: Ranvet (Bm78), 4:10PM, 1400m
Stallone is the horse I trust most in the quaddie. He has two wins and four placings from six starts in the past 90 days, and the 1 at the end of his form line is his latest run. Bjorn Baker‘s horse gets Tim Clark, and his single Warwick Farm start was unplaced, which is the only knock.
The threat comes from Komodo Dragon. He has three runs this window for a win and two placings, and he has the O’Shea and Charlton stable behind him, which has won four of its 17 starts here. Add Zac Lloyd from barrier one and he will be right in the race. Felix Majestic is the oddity: five runs in the last 90 days, five finishes in the first three, no wins. He placed on his only Warwick Farm start too. He is exactly the horse you want running a place for you and not the one you want to rely on to win.
Hanau won one of his two starts here but has not placed in three runs in the past 90 days. Stallone to win, Felix Majestic for a place.
Race 4: All Too Hard @ Vinery Stud (Bm72), 4:45PM, 1100m
Ballet d’Light is unbeaten. Hellabella is proven at this level. Those two profiles meet in a sprint with no market yet.
Ballet d’Light won her only start for Waller and jumps straight into a BM72 with McDonald on and the lightest weight in the race. One win is one win, and the step up is real. Hellabella, from the Waterhouse and Bott yard, has a win from her two starts in the past 90 days and gets Clark again. She has had just the one go at Warwick Farm without placing.
Ellipsis ran third on her only run in the window and Found The Gold has a placing from two. Manukau has run here four times without winning. Hard to have a confident view. If forced, Hellabella for the proven form and the rider. Small win bet only.
Race 5: Toyota Forklifts (Bm72), 5:20PM, 1400m
Love Story is the best bet on the card, and it is not complicated. Two starts, a second and a win, and the second came at Warwick Farm. She is lightly raced, she has handled the track, and the win came last time.
Clark keeps the ride for a stable that wins almost a quarter of its starts here. From barrier eight in a field of 11 she should find a spot without being caught wide for long.
Naina is the danger and the puzzle. She has finished in the first three in three of her four starts in the past 90 days without winning, and she is also entered in Race 3, so check she stays here. Glastonbury Girl has the same pattern, three placings from four without a win, for a Matthew Smith stable that wins a fifth of its starts here. Both are place prospects more than winners. Back Love Story to win.
Race 6: Tab (Bm88), 5:55PM, 1200m
The market will probably settle on a couple of the more seasoned BM88 types, but She’s An Artist has done more recently than most of them. She has placed in two of her three runs in the past 90 days, and she has earned $49,300 in that time, more than anything else in the race. Ciaron Maher has Zac Lloyd on, and Lloyd’s Warwick Farm numbers are the best on the card.
Monte Kate is the one to fear. She won on her only start here and has a win from five starts this window, with Mollie Fitzgerald riding at one of the lightest weights in the race. Amazing Eagle has banked $36,700 from three runs but has placed just once.
A big field and a wide range of form makes this a race for value over certainty. She’s An Artist each-way.
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Where the money goes
NAP: Love Story (Race 5, 5:20PM). She has never finished worse than second, she has already run well at the track, and Waterhouse and Bott with Clark is the strongest combination at this course.
Value: My Ju Ju (Race 1, 3:00PM). $26 with Bet Right for a maiden who has run second and third from two starts, trained by a stable that has won with two of its three Warwick Farm runners. Each-way.
Banker: Stallone (Race 3, 4:10PM). Two wins and four placings from six recent runs, and he won last time. The most reliable multi leg.
Each-way: Felix Majestic (Race 3, 4:10PM). Five runs in the last 90 days and five finishes in the first three. He keeps finding the frame.
Course angle: Tim Clark for Waterhouse and Bott. Nine wins from 31 starts together here, and 19 finishes in the first three. They team up with Savvy Spy, Hellabella and Love Story today.
If Love Story wins as she should, she will be stepping up in grade by the time Warwick Farm races again.
Warwick Farm racing FAQ
What time does racing start at Warwick Farm today?
Race 1, the Asahi Super Dry Mdn Plate over 1400m, starts at 3:00PM. The last race, the Tab (Bm88) over 1200m, is at 5:55PM.
Who are the top jockeys and trainers at Warwick Farm?
Zac Lloyd has 11 wins and 41 placings from 63 rides here, and Tim Clark has 11 wins from 62. G Waterhouse & A Bott lead the trainers with 18 winners from 76 runners.
What are the best bets at Warwick Farm today?
Love Story in Race 5 is the NAP, Stallone in Race 3 is the banker, and My Ju Ju in Race 1 is the value at $26.
Where can I find the best odds for Warwick Farm races?
Only Race 1 was priced when this was written. The Roaring Sun was $3.70 and My Ju Ju $26 with Bet Right, while Horologist was $11 with Unibet. The bookmaker table above compares current offers for the later races once their markets open.
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