Overview
Pat W Webster brings 78 Toowoomba runners of evidence into Saturday night, and the numbers are absurd for a provincial track: a third of them have won and almost three in four have hit the frame. The stable has one runner on the card, Savage Sequel in Race 3, and that alone makes the 6:28PM race the most interesting on the program.
It is not a one-horse story, though. Race 3 also has Happyaziam, who won on debut at this track and has not been seen losing since, and Toscanella, who has won two of four Toowoomba starts. Around it sit two maiden races, two Benchmark sprints and a pair of 1640m staying tests. Our Toowoomba racing tips cover all seven races on a Good to Soft surface under lights, with the first jumping at 5:14PM and the last at 8:55PM. No bookmaker had priced the meeting when this was written, so the reads below lean on form, track records and connections rather than the market.
Toowoomba, the setup
The Good to Soft rating matters less here than who is riding. A small group of locals take most of the rides, and three of them land in the first three more than four times in ten. Course form among the horses is thin for a Saturday card, but eight runners have three or more Toowoomba starts behind them, which is enough to table.
Horses with course form
| Horse | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jemeldi | 9 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 44% |
| Data Leak | 6 | 1 | 3 | 17% | 50% |
| Josephine Of Tuffy | 6 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 67% |
| Wanted Hillbilly | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 60% |
| Knowitall Frank | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 60% |
| Spoilt Rotten | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 40% |
| Toscanella | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 50% |
| Redcloud | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 75% |
Jockeys (5+ rides at Toowoomba)
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MS G Cartwright | 69 | 14 | 31 | 20.3% | 44.9% |
| MS K Lenton | 139 | 21 | 59 | 15.1% | 42.4% |
| Ashley Butler | 59 | 13 | 25 | 22.0% | 42.4% |
| Leslie Tilley | 89 | 15 | 37 | 16.9% | 41.6% |
| Jaden Lloyd | 30 | 5 | 12 | 16.7% | 40.0% |
| N Tomizawa | 92 | 13 | 36 | 14.1% | 39.1% |
| Aidan Keeley | 74 | 9 | 25 | 12.2% | 33.8% |
| Montanna Savva | 79 | 6 | 26 | 7.6% | 32.9% |
Trainers
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat W Webster | 78 | 26 | 56 | 33.3% | 71.8% |
| Stephen Matthews | 18 | 4 | 11 | 22.2% | 61.1% |
| Jake Capewell | 23 | 4 | 13 | 17.4% | 56.5% |
| Nick Keal | 86 | 19 | 42 | 22.1% | 48.8% |
| Nicholas Beck | 25 | 5 | 12 | 20.0% | 48.0% |
| Corey & Kylie Geran | 221 | 25 | 88 | 11.3% | 39.8% |
| K R Kemp | 140 | 14 | 53 | 10.0% | 37.9% |
Corey and Kylie Geran have the numbers on the card, with nine runners entered, but their Toowoomba record is a volume record: around one winner in nine. Stephen Matthews has a fraction of the starters and a far better hit rate, which is worth remembering in Race 5.
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Toowoomba race by race
Race 1: Cooper Commercial (Bm65), 5:14PM, 1300m
Wanted Hillbilly has won twice from five Toowoomba starts and placed in three, and nothing else left in this field can match that at the track. The latest two runs were a 7th and a 2nd, so the form is heading the right way, and Maddie Mankelow rides at 56.5kg from barrier 3, close enough to the inside to get a soft run behind the speed.
Scratchings have thinned the field to ten, with Paciera, Airswing, Magic Moz and Bole Le all out. Redcloud is the danger. It has been placed in three of four starts here, won one of its last four runs, and K Lenton, who has ridden more Toowoomba winners than anyone else on the card, takes the ride at 54.5kg. If Redcloud finds the fence from barrier 8, that is the one chasing Wanted Hillbilly down.
Win bet on Wanted Hillbilly, with Redcloud in the quinella.
Race 2: Sherrin Rentals (Bm70), 5:50PM, 1110m
Does 63kg stop Gitalong? That is the whole race. C Rogers trains and rides the top weight, who placed in both previous Toowoomba starts and has won one of three runs over the last three months, with a placing in another. The latest was a 2nd. On ability Gitalong is the one to beat, but the weight is a real question in a small-field sprint.
Jemeldi is the obvious counter. Nine runs here have brought four placings without a win, and the recent form is tidy: a win and two other placings from five starts over the last three months. Leslie Tilley rides at 58.5kg, so Jemeldi gets four and a half kilos off the top weight.
Hard to have a confident view. If forced, Gitalong to win on class, but the safer play is Jemeldi for a place.
Race 3: Empire Of Japan Standing At Hopetoun Farm (Bm60), 6:28PM, 1110m
Two horses, two very different cases, and both live. Happyaziam has had one start, at Toowoomba, and won it. Adam Campton has only sent nine runners here but three have won. K H Zechner rides at 55kg from barrier 4. A debut winner going up into a Benchmark 60 is a guess on how much improvement is left, but there was enough in that first win to think there is more.
Savage Sequel is the other side of the argument, and the connections are the reason. Pat W Webster wins with a third of all Toowoomba runners and places with nearly three quarters of them, from 78 starters. That is not a small-sample quirk; it is the strongest trainer number on the card. The horse has had two starts, a win then a 6th, and Ashley Butler, who wins at 22% here, rides at 57kg from barrier 3.
Toscanella is the third leg, with two wins from four Toowoomba starts and two from five runs over the last three months, though the latest was a 5th. Aidan Keeley rides for Michael Nolan at 56kg. Do What I Say has placed in both visits here and keeps K Lenton.
Happyaziam to win, with an exacta both ways with Savage Sequel. Throw It Back is scratched, and so is Wanted Hillbilly, who stays in Race 1.
Race 4: Lawrence & Hanson Mdn Hcp, 7:05PM, 1640m
The shape of this maiden suits a horse that keeps turning up, and Dual Mastery has done nothing else. Three starts over the last three months, three placings, and the last three runs went 3rd, 3rd, 2nd. Emma Fouchard has only had seven runners here, with one winner and three placings, and Jaden Lloyd rides off barrier 5 with 59.5kg.
Josephine Of Tuffy is the each-way horse of the race and probably the card. Six Toowoomba starts have produced four placings, two 2nds and two 3rds. There is still no win, but at 53.5kg with Kayla Barker for the Gerans, a seventh finish in the first three would not surprise. Handsome Triumph has placed in both recent runs for Montanna Savva and is the next best.
Win bet on Dual Mastery. Josephine Of Tuffy each-way as a saver.
Race 5: Create With Cottee Hcp (C3), 7:44PM, 1640m
Stephen Matthews places with six of every ten runners sent here, from 18 starters, and Switchblade arrives as a last-start winner. That is the case. The horse has had four Toowoomba starts without a placing, which looks like a hole until you see the current form: a win and one other placing from four runs over the last three months. Aidan Keeley rides at 56kg from barrier 8.
Data Leak is the course horse, with one win and three placings from six starts here, and Montanna Savva draws barrier 2. Only one of four recent runs produced a placing, though, so Data Leak looks the place threat rather than the winner. Abraham won one of two Toowoomba starts for Nick Keal, whose runners win 22% of the time here, but the latest run was unplaced.
Win bet on Switchblade. Data Leak for the trifecta.
Race 6: Neil Mansell Concrete Mdn Plate, 8:21PM, 1300m
Mishani Cabello‘s form has been building in a straight line. Three placings from four runs over the last three months, an average finishing spot of 2.5 in that time, and a 2nd at its only Toowoomba start. At 54.5kg with Olivia Kendal, Mishani Cabello gets a weight advantage over the two horses most likely to beat it.
The question is whether Cincinnati Cobra improves enough. It ran 2nd last start, its only run in the last three months, and Leslie Tilley rides at 58kg, a 3.5kg swing the wrong way. Zou Zou Zipora placed at its only start here and has two placings from three recent runs, while Kava Express is interesting purely for Jake Capewell, who places with more than half of all Toowoomba runners. Gunna Wannabe is scratched.
Mishani Cabello each-way. It places too often to back win-only in a maiden this open.
Race 7: Moore Trailers Mdn Plate, 8:55PM, 1210m
Spoilt Rotten has been knocking on the door long enough. Five Toowoomba starts for two placings, two placings from four runs over the last three months, and a 2nd last time. Aidan Keeley rides for Michael Nolan at 58.5kg from barrier 10, which is the one worry: Spoilt Rotten will need to cross or settle back.
Flashing Star ran 4th on debut, and James Moore has won with one and placed with three of five Toowoomba runners. Second-up improvement is the danger to Spoilt Rotten. It’s A Long Road placed at its only start here but was 8th last time.
Spoilt Rotten to win, small stakes given the draw. Vela Fortune is scratched.
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Where the money goes
NAP: Switchblade (Race 5, 7:44PM). A last-start winner for a trainer who finishes in the first three with most Toowoomba runners. The poor course record came before this run of form.
Value: Happyaziam (Race 3, 6:28PM). One start, one Toowoomba win, and a trainer with three winners from nine runners here. Expect the betting to favour the more exposed horses. No market was open when this was written.
Banker: Dual Mastery (Race 4, 7:05PM). Placed every time it has started in the last three months. For multis, consistency beats upside.
Each-way: Josephine Of Tuffy (Race 4, 7:05PM). Four placings from six Toowoomba starts and the lightest weight among the main chances.
Course angle: Pat W Webster. Twenty-six winners from 78 runners at the track. Savage Sequel in Race 3 is the stable’s only runner tonight, so include it in anything exotic in that race.
With a strike rate like that from 78 runners, every Webster runner at Toowoomba deserves a look next week too.
Toowoomba racing FAQ
What time does racing start at Toowoomba today?
Race 1, the Cooper Commercial (Bm65) over 1300m, jumps at 5:14PM. The seventh and last race, the Moore Trailers Mdn Plate, is at 8:55PM.
Who are the top trainers and jockeys at Toowoomba?
Pat W Webster has the best trainer record, with 26 winners and 56 placings from 78 runners here. Among jockeys, G Cartwright places 45% of the time from 69 rides, K Lenton has ridden the most winners with 21 from 139, and Ashley Butler has the best win rate at 22% from 59 rides.
What are the best Toowoomba bets today?
Switchblade in Race 5 is the NAP, a last-start winner for Stephen Matthews. Dual Mastery in Race 4 is the banker after three placings from three recent runs, and Happyaziam in Race 3, a debut winner at this track, is the value.
Where can I find the best Toowoomba odds?
No bookmaker had priced the Toowoomba races when this was written. Check the bookmakers listed above once markets open and compare before you bet, especially in Race 3, where three horses have strong claims.
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