Overview
Prince Of Verona has won all three of its starts over the past 90 days, and on Saturday it carries that perfect record into the Nzb 3yo Spring Stakes over 1600m with Nash Rawiller in the saddle. That is the race we keep coming back to on a ten-race Newcastle card, because a three-year-old that keeps winning is the easiest thing in racing to trust and the hardest thing to price.
It is not a one-horse story, though. Kickup Rocky has won both of its last two and banked $97,600 doing it, so the Spring Stakes looks like a genuine clash rather than a procession. Elsewhere, Savvy Spy brings three straight wins into The Beauford, Felix Majestic has placed in all five recent runs heading into the Sugarloaf, and C’Mon Flyer is two from two at this track yet sits at a double-figure price.
The going is listed as Good, the first race jumps at 12:35PM and the last at 5:55PM. These Newcastle racing tips cover every race, then narrow it down to five plays.
Newcastle: the setup
Limited course form across today’s fields. Only three runners have three starts here (Caltsar, Cosmic Avenger and Unreachable), and most of the rest have one or two at most. The riders and stables carry far more Newcastle evidence than the horses do, so that is where the tables earn their place.
Jockeys at Newcastle (5+ rides)
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Berry | 12 | 2 | 8 | 17% | 67% |
| Tyler Schiller | 20 | 7 | 13 | 35% | 65% |
| Regan Bayliss | 22 | 4 | 12 | 18% | 55% |
| J R Collett | 23 | 5 | 11 | 22% | 48% |
| A Bullock | 63 | 14 | 29 | 22% | 46% |
| Siena Grima | 30 | 2 | 13 | 7% | 43% |
| Dylan Gibbons | 34 | 6 | 13 | 18% | 38% |
Trainers at Newcastle (10+ runners)
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S I Singleton | 18 | 6 | 13 | 33% | 72% |
| P Messara & L Gavranich | 13 | 2 | 9 | 15% | 69% |
| M, W & J Hawkes | 19 | 7 | 12 | 37% | 63% |
| Nathan Doyle | 53 | 12 | 32 | 23% | 60% |
| Bjorn Baker | 27 | 4 | 16 | 15% | 59% |
| C J Waller | 80 | 11 | 36 | 14% | 45% |
| K A Lees | 89 | 12 | 30 | 13% | 34% |
Two things stand out. Tyler Schiller wins more than a third of his Newcastle rides, which is the strongest strike rate of any jockey on the card with a real sample behind it. And Nathan Doyle puts six in every ten runners he brings here into the first three across 53 starts, so his three runners in the Midway deserve respect. Kris Lees has the most volume, 89 starters, with 12 winners.
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Newcastle racing tips: race by race
Race 1: Cleanaway Max Lees Classic, 12:35PM, 900m
Ten of the eleven have never raced, and the one that has, Heli Jinglong, ran sixth on debut. That makes this a market race, and the market has already spoken: Stellar Ami is $2.15 with Unibet for G Waterhouse and A Bott, with Regan Bayliss riding.
Bronze Lion is the danger at $4.60 with Unibet. Kris Lees has two in the race, Bronze Lion and Inside Perfection, and C Maher saddles three. Bronze Lion also has the inside gate, which matters over 900m. Hard to have a confident view without a single trial line in front of us. Watch race, no bet; if you must, a small win bet on Stellar Ami.
Race 2: Nzb Alf Kneebone Trans-Tasman Trophy (Bm88), 1:10PM, 1850m
Is C’Mon Flyer the most underrated horse on the card? It has raced twice at Newcastle and won both times, and the last figure in its form line is a win. Yet it sits at $19 with Bet Right because two C Maher runners dominate the market.
Agent Zero is the $1.65 favourite with Unibet, and fair enough: it won one of its two runs in the past 90 days, placed in the other and earned $88,000 across them. Rock Empire, the stable’s other runner, is $2.60 and has two placings from four recent starts without a win. With All Kinds Of Folk and Poisen Point scratched, only six go around.
Agent Zero should win. But C’Mon Flyer has the rail, Tyler Schiller on top and a proven liking for this track. At that price it is the bet. Small win on C’Mon Flyer, and use Agent Zero in a quinella with it.
Race 3: Tab Highway Hcp (C3), 1:45PM, 1600m
Airhawk arrives on three straight wins. Its last five runs read three wins and a fourth placing, and Dylan Gibbons draws gate 3, the sort of draw that lets him take a sit just off the speed in a big Highway field.
The depth is in the class drop horses. Always A Rainbow has placed in all four recent runs, two of them wins, and jumps from barrier 1. Imelda won on its only Newcastle start and has been in the first three every time this campaign for P Messara and L Gavranich, who place nearly seven in ten of their runners here. Costa Del Sol is two from two in the same period for the same stable, but gate 22 is a serious tax.
Airhawk to win. Always A Rainbow is the danger from the fence. Win bet on Airhawk, with a saver on Imelda.
Race 4: Express Glass Midway (Bm72), 2:20PM, 1600m
Nathan Doyle sends three here: Caltsar, Mornington Pier and Hellfire Express. That is a stable with 12 Newcastle winners from 53 runners, and Caltsar is the pick of the trio on track form, a win and a placing from three starts here.
Still, the most reliable horse in the race is Cabbucio. Four runs in the past 90 days, four placings, no win, and $48,950 banked. A Adkins rides from gate 5. It has been knocking on the door so often that a weaker Benchmark 72 could be the day it walks through.
Cosmic Avenger is the danger. Tommy Berry rides from barrier 1, the horse has a win and a second placing from three Newcastle starts, and Berry hits the frame on two of every three rides here. Each-way on Cabbucio.
Race 5: Ausure Insurance – Rose Davies Legend Mile (Bm78), 2:55PM, 1600m
Two runs, two wins, $90,250. Hammoon Sensation has done nothing wrong in its last two and draws gate 2 for R P Northam with Reece Jones aboard. It is building, it has the draw, and it meets a field where few others are arriving in winning form.
Cuban Cigar is the obvious threat. It was scratched from the Midway to run here and has placed in four of its five recent runs, earning $132,925, more than anything else in the race. J R Collett takes the ride. It keeps running into one better, though, and a horse with no recent win is hard to back at the shorter end. Spaceballs, also scratched elsewhere to run here, placed on its only Newcastle start.
Win bet on Hammoon Sensation. Cuban Cigar for the quinella.
Race 6: Mcgrath – Izzy’s Gift (Bm78), 3:30PM, 1400m
Chix versus Regal Problem. Chix has won both of its last two and collected $110,900, a big number for a horse in a Benchmark 78. Regal Problem is the grinder: five runs, two wins and four placings, and Nash Rawiller riding for Joseph Pride from gate 4.
The question mark over Chix is the jockey’s Newcastle record. Anna Roper has had eight rides here without a placing, which is a small sample but not a comforting one. The horse’s form is stronger than Regal Problem‘s, though, and the stable of John O’Shea and Tom Charlton places more than half its runners at this track.
Chix to win, Regal Problem the danger. Win bet, nothing fancy. Nova Centauri, with four wins from eight recent runs, is the each-way roughie.
Race 7: Nzb 3yo Spring Stakes, 4:05PM, 1600m
Prince Of Verona is three from three, and Nash Rawiller rides. Unbeaten three-year-olds rarely stay that way for long, but this colt has done everything asked of it, earning $64,350 along the way, and the step to 1600m is part of the plan rather than a guess.
The trainer angle is unusual. Annabel Neasham and Rob Archibald have had 51 Newcastle runners for a single winner, so the stable’s own track record is no help. The horse’s is. Gate 8 of eight means Rawiller can choose his spot, and with El Pablo and Consulate scratched the field is down to eight.
Kickup Rocky is the one to beat. It has won its last two, banked $97,600, and Desleigh Forster has it peaking. Horologist won its only start in the past 90 days for C J Waller and Tommy Berry, and that is a combination that will be well found. Iminastate has placed in both Newcastle runs.
Back Prince Of Verona to win. Kickup Rocky for the exacta underneath.
Race 8: The Newcastle Herald Hunter, 4:45PM, 1300m
Prize money tells part of the story here. Infancy has earned $422,000 from three runs in the past 90 days without winning, which says it has been running in much better races than this. Its last start was a second. J R Collett rides for Kris Lees, and Collett wins 22% of his Newcastle rides.
General Salute is the danger. It won one of two recent runs for $172,000 and Tim Clark gets on for G Ryan and S Alexiou, a stable that places nearly half its runners here. Golden Straand, a win and two placings from three, is the other one on the shortlist.
Bjorn Baker has three in the race. His runners place close to six times in ten at this track, so a big field like this one tends to suit his numbers. Win and place on Infancy.
Race 9: Njc The Beauford, 5:20PM, 2300m
Three wins on the trot, six runs for three wins and five placings in the past 90 days, and $146,025 in the bank. Savvy Spy is the form horse of the race by a distance, and it gets L P Beuzelin for G Waterhouse and A Bott.
The rest of the field is short on recent wins. Mr Fabulous has one from eight. Steel Blaze has two placings from five. Bestower, for Kris Lees with Tyler Schiller riding, placed in one of two and is the most likely to improve at 2300m. Campaldino has not placed in five recent runs.
Savvy Spy to win. The staying trip is the only question, and its record says it can answer it. Win bet, and the banker for multis.
Race 10: Reward Hospitality The Sugarloaf (Bm94), 5:55PM, 1300m
Felix Majestic has placed in all five of its recent starts and won none of them. That is the profile of an each-way bet rather than a win bet, and in a deep Benchmark 94 over 1300m the place money is the realistic target. Molly Bourke rides for G R Nickson from gate 14.
Eagle Express is the class runner, $120,700 from four recent runs and the inside gate for C J Waller with Siena Grima. Just Party has banked $126,875 from four runs for G Ryan and S Alexiou with J R Collett. Either could win it. Lightning Glory, the Nathan Doyle runner, won on its only Newcastle start and William Stanley takes the ride.
Each-way on Felix Majestic, and Eagle Express on top in any exotics.
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Where the money goes
NAP: Prince Of Verona (Race 7, 4:05PM). Three runs, three wins, and the best rider in the race. Unbeaten three-year-olds give you a clean form line to trust, and this one has never been asked a question it could not answer.
Value: C’Mon Flyer (Race 2, 1:10PM), $19 with Bet Right. Two starts at Newcastle, two wins, a win last start and Tyler Schiller on board. The market is fixated on the Maher pair.
Banker: Savvy Spy (Race 9, 5:20PM). Three straight wins and five placings from six. Ideal for multis.
Each-way: Felix Majestic (Race 10, 5:55PM). Five recent starts, five placings. It may not win, but it keeps filling the frame.
Course angle: Tyler Schiller. Seven wins from 20 Newcastle rides, and he has C’Mon Flyer, Spread The Love, Live, Katoto, Bestower and Brudenell today.
If Schiller keeps striking at this rate at Newcastle, his book here will be the first thing to check on every card.
FAQ
What time does racing start at Newcastle today?
Race 1, the Cleanaway Max Lees Classic over 900m, jumps at 12:35PM. The last, the Reward Hospitality The Sugarloaf over 1300m, is at 5:55PM.
Who are the top jockeys and trainers at Newcastle?
Tyler Schiller has won seven of his 20 rides at Newcastle and placed in 13. A Bullock has the most wins among today’s riders, 14 from 63. Among trainers, Nathan Doyle has 12 winners from 53 starters here and Kris Lees has 12 from 89.
What are the best bets at Newcastle today?
Prince Of Verona in Race 7 is our NAP, three from three in its recent runs. Savvy Spy in Race 9 is the banker after three straight wins, and C’Mon Flyer in Race 2 is the value, two from two at the track.
Where can I find the best odds for Newcastle races?
Compare prices with the bookmakers listed above. At the time of writing Stellar Ami was $2.15 with Unibet in Race 1 and C’Mon Flyer $19 with Bet Right in Race 2.