Overview
Best Terms is the best bet on Monday. He has run second, third, second, second and third at his last five starts, placed at both of his Ballarat visits, and meets a soft maiden over 1750m. He replaces Our Lady Peace, who has been scratched at Corowa.
These are three selections from two meetings, two at Ballarat and one at Corowa, chosen from the three meetings racing today (Ballina is the third). All three have live prices this morning, and the prices quoted are the best available from the bookmakers on our racecards.
The best bet
Best Terms, Ballarat Race 4, 3:00, 2.50 with Ladbrokes.
Our Lady Peace has been scratched, so the best bet moves to the Harvey Norman Ballarat Maiden Plate over 1750m. Best Terms just keeps running in the first three, two placings from two Ballarat starts and a recent sequence of 2-3-2-2-3, and that consistency stands out in a maiden. MS L J Meech rides for T & C McEvoy, a stable that wins a quarter of its Ballarat races, and the trip has suited him.
The worry is that he keeps finding one better. Whiskey And War gets John Allen and is the danger at $3.90 with Palmerbet, while Pneuma has gone 6-5-2 and is getting closer. Win bet on Best Terms, with Pneuma underneath in the exacta.
The value bet
Overcast, Ballarat Race 3, 2:30, 5.00 with Unibet.
Overcast has run third, third and second in three starts, improving each time, and the market has him only fourth in the betting. Ben Rawiller rides, with six wins from 47 rides at Ballarat, and barrier 4 gives him options in a field of thirteen.
Bella Blaze is the one to beat. She placed at her only Ballarat start and is the $4.80 favourite. First starter Hells Gates, from the T & C McEvoy stable that wins a quarter of its Ballarat races, is the unknown. Each-way is the sensible way to play Overcast at the price.
The quaddie angle
Trooper, Corowa Race 4, 3:20, 2.60 with Bet Right.
Trooper opens the Corowa quaddie in the BM66 over 1094m. He won three races in a row before a sixth last time, and the market has forgiven that run. Barrier 3 should keep him out of trouble in a short sprint.
Jugiong, a winner at his only Corowa start, is the main danger at $3.30 with Unibet, and Pretty Panther, a winner at her only start, is the roughie at $11.00. Use Trooper as the anchor in leg one and spread in the BM58s that follow.
How these were picked
All three come from our full previews for Ballarat, Corowa and Ballina. The strongest selections on form were Antalian in the last race at Ballarat and Do It For You in Race 3 at Ballina, both with outstanding course records, but neither race had a market when this was written. We went with horses that could be backed at a known price. Chandler at Ballarat is a shorter, safer favourite at $1.50, but that is no price to call a best bet, and Crunch Time at $5.50 at Ballina is the next value play if you want a second.