Overview
Antalian has been to Ballarat three times and come home in the first three every time, twice as the winner. He gets his fourth crack at the track in the last race on Monday, a 1531m BM62, and he is the horse this whole card builds towards. That is the starting point for today’s Ballarat racing tips.
Ballarat runs eight races on a turf track rated Good to Soft, starting at 1:30PM and finishing at 5:00PM. The first four are maidens, and the bookmakers had those priced when this was written. The back half is four BM62 handicaps that had no prices yet, so the opinions there rest on form, course records and the people involved. Chandler is the shortest favourite on the card in Race 2 and looks the banker, while Overcast in Race 3 is the price we like most. Below you get the course numbers that matter, a view on every race, and where we would actually put money.
Ballarat: the setup
Course form is thin on the horses. Only six runners on the card have three or more Ballarat starts, and most of those are ordinary records. Antalian is the exception.
| Horse | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antalian | 3 | 2 | 3 | 67% | 100% |
| Swycho | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20% | 40% |
| Russian Duchess | 3 | 1 | 1 | 33% | 33% |
| El Salto | 11 | 1 | 3 | 9% | 27% |
| Into You | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Trigger Warning | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
The riders give us far more to work with. John Allen has ridden here 143 times and wins about one in five, which is a big sample at a strong strike rate.
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachlan Neindorf | 21 | 5 | 13 | 24% | 62% |
| W Egan | 33 | 7 | 19 | 21% | 58% |
| John Allen | 143 | 28 | 77 | 20% | 54% |
| Thomas Stockdale | 24 | 6 | 12 | 25% | 50% |
| Olivia East | 29 | 8 | 14 | 28% | 48% |
| Zac Moore | 34 | 5 | 16 | 15% | 47% |
Among the stables, C Maher has the volume with 92 runners here, and T & C McEvoy have the better strike rate.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Payne | 9 | 4 | 5 | 44% | 56% |
| C Maher | 92 | 17 | 50 | 18% | 54% |
| T & C McEvoy | 53 | 14 | 28 | 26% | 53% |
| Matthew Cumani | 35 | 5 | 18 | 14% | 51% |
| Henry Dwyer | 38 | 4 | 19 | 11% | 50% |
| Ben, Will & JD Hayes | 79 | 11 | 30 | 14% | 38% |
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Ballarat race by race
Race 1: Manhari Mdn Plate, 1:30PM, 1750m
Miss Capri is the one with something on the board. She has raced three times for a seventh, an eighth and then a third, and that third came at her only Ballarat start. She draws barrier 1, which over 1750m means Declan Bates can save ground the whole way, and Bates has eleven wins from 73 rides here.
The market has Franked Up on top at $2.30 with Unibet as a first starter from T & C McEvoy with L Currie aboard. That stable wins a quarter of its Ballarat races, so the price is not silly, but you are paying a short quote for a horse that has never been to the races. Bella Athena, another debutant, is $4.80 for the Hayes team.
Miss Capri at $3.40 with Unibet is the bet. Win only, and keep it modest because the first starters are unknowns.
Race 2: Ac Accounting Mdn Plate, 2:00PM, 1094m
Does anything here make Chandler work? He ran second on debut, and his trainer Patrick Payne has four winners from nine Ballarat runners. W Egan, who places in more than half his rides here, keeps the ride.
The danger is Weeping Wonder, a first starter for Jerome Hunter, whose three wins from seven runners at the track say he does not bring them here for a look. Swiss Impact, unraced for McEvoy, is also in the market at $5.00.
Chandler is $1.50 with Bet Right. That is no price to bet straight, but he is the safest leg on the card. Use him in multis and quaddies.
Race 3: Winning Edge Presentations – Emerging Stars Mdn Plate, 2:30PM, 1312m
Overcast has run third, third and second in three starts, so he keeps getting closer. Ben Rawiller rides, with six wins from 47 rides here, and barrier 4 gives him options in a field of thirteen. At $6.00 with Unibet he is the overlay in this race.
Bella Blaze is the one he has to beat. She placed at her only Ballarat start and has a 3-8-2 profile, and the market has her favourite at $4.80. Hells Gates, a first starter for McEvoy with John Allen riding, sits at $5.00 and is the wildcard.
Each-way on Overcast. If he improves again, the price looks generous, and the place covers you if Bella Blaze finally gets it right.
Race 4: Harvey Norman Ballarat Mdn Plate, 3:00PM, 1750m
Two placings from two Ballarat starts, and a recent run of 2-3-2-2-3. Best Terms just keeps running in the first three, and that consistency stands out in a maiden. MS L J Meech rides for McEvoy, and the 1750m trip has suited him.
The worry is that he keeps finding one better. Whiskey And War gets John Allen and is $5.75 with Bet Right, while Pneuma has gone 6-5-2 and is getting closer.
Best Terms at $2.40 with Unibet is a fair win bet in a soft maiden. Add Pneuma underneath in the exacta.
Race 5: Hertz (Bm62), 3:30PM, 1750m
Savannah Chill arrives on two straight wins and has won twice from four starts in the last 90 days, placing in three. Nadia Daniels rides for the Hayes stable, and barrier 2 should let her settle handy.
Diamond Eye brings very similar recent figures, two wins from three runs in the same window, but her last start was an eighth after the two wins. If that was a blip, she is the main danger. Torn won his last start and is the each-way roughie.
No prices were up when this was written. Win bet on Savannah Chill once the market opens, as long as she is not shorter than Diamond Eye.
Race 6: Hygain Edge (Bm62), 4:00PM, 1094m
Two different profiles. Kooralbyn won at his second start, the most recent of his two runs in the last 90 days. Nordic Strike has not won lately but has placed in all three of his runs in that time, and he has Zac Moore and the Maher stable behind him.
Kooralbyn is the pick. He is going the right way, and a winner at his last start usually has more to give than a horse that keeps finishing second and third. Nordic Strike draws barrier 2 and should be close all the way, so he is the obvious danger. Gunz, carrying top weight, is the other one with a win in his recent form.
Win on Kooralbyn. Nordic Strike each-way if you want a safer second play.
Race 7: Sportsbet Race Replays (Bm62), 4:30PM, 1312m
Fifteen runners, a handful of last-start winners and no market yet. This is a hard race to be confident in. If forced, Sugar Schnapps gets the nod. She won last time after a 2-2-9-4-2 sequence, and from barrier 4 Nadia Daniels can get a cosy spot.
Catwalk Icon won at her only Ballarat start and has Olivia East aboard, who wins more than a quarter of her rides here. Her last two runs were unplaced and fifth, though, so she has questions to answer. Mykindakandy, Zane Zena and Sayalero all won last time too, and that is why we would keep the stake small.
Small win bet on Sugar Schnapps, or watch it.
Race 8: Hygain Edge (Bm62), 5:00PM, 1531m
Antalian has been to Ballarat three times, won twice, and placed the other time. He has also won once and placed twice from his three runs in the last 90 days. A horse with that record at the track is worth following, and M J Dee rides for N A Blackiston.
Barrier 6 is a good draw in a field this size, so M J Dee can find cover and wait for the straight. Russian Duchess, one of two Maher runners, has a Ballarat win too, but only one from three. Black Aces gets John Allen and won one of his two recent starts.
The danger is Till Queen. She won two of her last five starts and has Declan Bates, but she has barrier 14 to overcome. If she gets across without doing too much, she will make Antalian work.
Win bet on Antalian once the market opens. Saver on Till Queen.
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18+ T&C’s Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
18+ T&C’s Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
Where the money goes
NAP: Antalian (Race 8, 5:00PM). He has been in the first three at every Ballarat start, with two wins, so the track is not a question. He was still unpriced when we wrote this. Take a price once the market opens.
Value: Overcast (Race 3, 2:30PM). $6.00 with Unibet. Three runs for two thirds and a second means he is ready to win a maiden, and the market is treating him as a fourth choice.
Banker: Chandler (Race 2, 2:00PM). $1.50 with Bet Right. He ran second on debut, and Patrick Payne wins four from nine here. Anchor the multi with him.
Each-way: Nordic Strike (Race 6, 4:00PM). He has placed in all three of his recent runs and draws barrier 2.
Course angle: T & C McEvoy. They win a quarter of their Ballarat races and have runners in six races today, including Best Terms in Race 4.
If Antalian makes it three wins from four here, he becomes the horse to follow every time he is entered at Ballarat.
Ballarat racing FAQ
What time does racing start at Ballarat today?
Race 1, the Manhari Maiden Plate over 1750m, starts at 1:30PM. The last, a BM62 over 1531m, is at 5:00PM.
Who are the top trainers and jockeys at Ballarat?
John Allen has 28 wins and 77 placings from 143 rides at Ballarat. Olivia East wins 28% of her rides here. Among trainers, C Maher has 17 winners from 92 runners and T & C McEvoy have 14 from 53.
What are the best bets at Ballarat today?
Antalian in Race 8 is the NAP, after two wins and a placing from three Ballarat starts. Chandler in Race 2 is the banker at $1.50, and Overcast in Race 3 is the value at $6.00.
Where can I find the best odds for Ballarat races?
When this was written, Unibet and Bet Right had the best prices in the four maidens, and the four BM62s had not been priced yet. Check the bookmakers listed above before you bet on the later races.