Overview
Prince Is Game is the best bet of the day. It has won its last two starts and keeps B Looker for Race 2 at Kempsey, and it has a live price of $3.10 with Ladbrokes. Of the horses with a market up, nobody else at the five meetings comes into Friday in the same winning form.
That is three selections from three meetings, Kempsey, Gatton and Albury, out of the five we previewed today. The best bet and the value bet are priced. Carlow Rose, the quaddie anchor at Albury, runs in a race whose market wasn’t open when this was written.
The best bet
Prince Is Game, Kempsey Race 2, 1:50PM, 3.10 with Ladbrokes.
Prince Is Game has won the last two, and four runs in the past three months have produced two wins. B Looker rides again for M J Robinson, and Looker has ridden three winners from nine Kempsey rides. The Pynx Cranes Showcase (Bm74) is 2078m on a heavy track, and a horse in the winning habit carrying 121.2kg from barrier 5 is a better proposition than one that keeps running into a place.
That describes the danger. Brilliant Knight, the slight favourite at $2.80 with Unibet, has finished third in four of its last five starts and has not won in its last six. L P Rolls rides from barrier 4, and if Brilliant Knight finally lands one, this is the day. We’d still rather take the horse that has been winning. Win bet on Prince Is Game.
The value bet
Final Voyage, Gatton Race 2, 1:34PM, 5.50 with Neds.
Final Voyage has finished in the first three at all five of its starts in the last 90 days, with a win among them, and its form line ends 1-2-2-2. In the Falvey’s Hotel Gatton Hcp (58) over 1203m it carries 56kg from barrier 2, and William Galloway, with five placings from ten Gatton rides, takes the ride for A & T Sweeney.
The market has made Ladies Ocean Run favourite at $2.40 with Bet Right, and it has a case: second last start, placed at its only Gatton start, and Pat W Webster has placed nine of ten Gatton runners. But it carries 59.5kg, 3.5kg more than Final Voyage, and that gap is not in the prices. Final Voyage each-way, with a saver on Ladies Ocean Run.
The quaddie angle
Carlow Rose, Albury Race 5, 5:15PM.
Carlow Rose won last start, has placed in all three runs over the past 90 days, and has a win and a second from two Albury starts. Brittany Button, with 11 wins from 54 Albury rides, takes the ride for MS E Haworth from barrier 10. Race 5, the Baxters Concrete (Bm58) over 984m, opens the Albury quaddie (Races 5 to 8), and it is the leg where we’re happy to stand on one horse.
With fifteen runners over 984m it will be a scramble, so this is not risk-free. She’s Elusive is two from two at Albury, though its last two runs were unplaced. Hazardous won its only start and draws barrier 2, and is the one with upside. In the later legs, our Albury preview has Samaka in Race 6, Gold Tracker in Race 7 and Riverbend Gold, the meeting’s NAP, in Race 8.
How these were picked
All three selections come from the full previews for Kempsey, Gatton, Albury, Warrnambool and Cranbourne. Each slot went to the strongest pick that had a live price, and only the quaddie had to go without one.
The meeting NAPs mostly missed out on price, not form. Jade Trees in the Kempsey Cup, Thunderous at Gatton and Riverbend Gold at Albury all run in races whose markets weren’t open yet. Warrnambool and Cranbourne had no prices up on any race, so What Once Was and Brutal World, the NAPs there, couldn’t be weighed against priced runners. Carlow Rose got the quaddie spot over Hedjet at Cranbourne and Thunderous because it is the Albury banker, and its form line is the most consistent of those inside a quaddie.