Overview
Fiorowngood is the best bet of the day. It has won its last four, yet the Sandown market still has it behind a lightly raced favourite in the opening race.
That is three selections from three of today’s ten meetings: Sandown, Newcastle and Ascot. Prices were up for the Sandown and Newcastle picks when this was written. The market for Bassett Hound‘s race at Ascot had not opened yet, so it has no price here.
The best bet
Fiorowngood, Sandown Race 1, 12:20, 5.25 with Bet Right.
Five runs in the past 90 days have produced four wins and a second, and the last four of them were all wins. Damian Lane takes the ride for Symon Wilde over 2400m, the booking you want on a stayer in this kind of rhythm.
Gate 12 is the worry. Fiorowngood may have to drop back and come wide, but a horse on a four-race winning streak can afford to do that over this trip. Ichnusa heads the market at $2.45 with Bet Right on the back of two runs in 90 days for a single placing, so that price rests on promise more than results. Mr O’Reilly is the steadier danger, with four placings from four recent runs and Craig Williams up.
The value bet
C’Mon Flyer, Newcastle Race 2, 1:10, 19.00 with Bet Right.
C’Mon Flyer has raced twice at Newcastle and won both times, and it won last start as well. Tyler Schiller rides, and he has won on seven of his 20 Newcastle rides. It also draws the rail in a field cut to six by scratchings.
The market is all about the two C Maher runners. Agent Zero is $1.65 with Unibet after earning $88,000 from its two recent runs, and it is the likeliest winner. That is exactly why $19 appeals: a proven track winner with the in-form local rider should not be that big in a six-horse race. Keep the stake small and add a quinella with Agent Zero.
The quaddie angle
Bassett Hound, Ascot Race 7, 3:45.
Ascot’s quaddie runs from Race 7 to Race 10, and Bassett Hound is the horse to anchor it on. It has won its last five on the form line, both of its runs in the past 90 days and three of its five starts at Ascot. Those two recent wins were worth more than $87,000, so this is not a horse feasting on weak races.
It jumps from barrier 1 over 1100m with 55kg, and P Carbery rides for Mitchell Pateman. Carbery can hold the rail, sit behind the leader and pick a gap at the top of the straight. Immortal Bliss is the one to beat: placed in all three Ascot runs with a win, and placed in both of its recent runs for more than $127,000. Single Bassett Hound in the first leg and spend the money on the later legs.
How these were picked
All three come from today’s full previews. We wrote ten: Sandown, Newcastle and Ascot, plus Doomben, Morphettville, Toowoomba, Ipswich, Gold Coast, Illawarra Grange and Fannie Bay.
Price did a lot of the deciding. When this was written, bookmakers had markets up only for the first few races at Sandown, Newcastle and Doomben. That kept out several strong top picks. Tennessee Spirit at Sandown and Prince Of Verona at Newcastle have both won all three of their recent runs, and Czech Out at Morphettville, Draw Attention at Doomben and Ratenotice at Ipswich all have good cases, but none of them had a price. Fundamental Nature, the Sandown banker at $2.25, was the other priced option for the top slot. It has one win from four recent runs, a thinner line than Fiorowngood‘s four straight wins. No priced runner sat inside any meeting’s quaddie, so Bassett Hound took that slot as the strongest of the unpriced options.