Coolmore Classic Tips & Preview
Australian Cup Tips & Preview
Looking for Australian Cup tips and best bets? We dive into times and form to find the winner of the 2022 Australian Cup at Flemington.
AUSTRALIAN CUP BETTING SNAPSHOT
The Australian Cup is always one of the highlights of the Melbourne autumn and has been won in the past by the likes of Northerly, Lonhro and Maybe Diva. Humidor, Fifty Stars and Homesman are among the recent winners.
This year we see a field of 12 in action and it is the Sydney galloper, Think It Over, that has been installed as a $3 favourite with ladbrokes just ahead of Spanish Mission at $4.40.
The last start Peter Young Stakes (1800m) winner, Cascadian, is at $8, while Duais is at $8.50. She’s Ideal ($10), Callsign Mav ($11) and Maximal ($16) head the rest.
AUSTRALIAN CUP FORM ANALYSIS
The Peter Young Stakes is always one of the tried and true lead ups towards the Australian Cup with eight of the past 11 winners of the Australian Cup having their previous start in the Caulfield Group 2.
Four horses come out of that race and they are Cascadian, Yonkers, Delphi and Steel Prince. Not sure about the depth of that race this year and they crawled early on, gifting the race to Cascadian, who sat on the speed before going just 2.5 lengths slower than standard benchmark.
He is capable of raising the bar and did go 13.8 lengths faster than standard when runner-up in the Mackinnon Stakes (2000m) at the track and trip last year.
Delphi led in the Peter Young Stakes but was first up and didn’t quite have the sprinting juice in his legs when fading into 4th position. Not sure if Yonkers and Steel Prince are going well enough to threaten here.
Form out of the Carlyon Stakes (1600m) looks solid. That was held at Caulfield on February 12 with Earlswood scoring. He is not present in the Australian Cup but the placegetters in Callsign Mav and Spanish Mission will be in action.
Those two were within half a length of the winner with Callsign Mav going 12.1 lengths faster than standard. They are the best last start figures of any runner. Spanish Mission produced the second fastest last 200m and the 2000m at Flemington will suit. The former import went 18.2 lengths faster than standard when 3rd behind Verry Elegant at the track in last year’s Melbourne Cup. They are the best figures that any horse in this race has produce in the past two years.
Think It Over heads south in search of drier tracks and was a dominant winner in the Apollo Stakes (1400m) when resuming before running 4th on the Heavy in the Chipping Norton Stakes (1600m). He is five from 10 at the distance and scored in the Hill Stakes, Craven Plate and Rosehill Cup last spring with all those runs coming at the trip.
She’s Ideal landed in front of Think It Over as the runner-up horse in the Chipping Norton and also comes down. She improved six lengths on figures when third up in the spring to take out the Kingston Town Stakes (2000m) at Randwick.
Duais is another that is third up over the 2000m and improved eight lengths on figures at this stage to take out the Coongy Cup (2000m) in the spring defeating Wentwood and Floating Artist but battled behind Think It Over prior to that.
Where will the settle in the Australian Cup?
Pace could be a fraction muddling and I expect Delphi to kick up from barrier 1, while Think It Over shouldn’t be too far away. Spanish Mission has settled in the first five in his three runs in Australia, while Callsign Mav also likes to be prominent. Cascadian normally settles back but has been handy in his two runs this time in.
Australian Cup Tips and Best Bets
I think Spanish Mission profiles perfectly for this race. Horses that have come off a Melbourne Cup campaign have generally fared well in this race and we know that he likes Flemington, with his solid 3rd to Verry Elleegant and Incentivise last year a case in point. He meets them under the weight-for-age conditions this time around and I really liked the way he closed off at Caulfield in the Carlyon Cup. He gets the steer from James McDonald, who has an extraordinary record in Melbourne and the gun jockey will look to find a spot early on from barrier 10.
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