Australian Oaks Tips & Preview 2023

Looking for Australian Oaks tips and best bets? We dissect times and form to find the winner of the 2023 Australian Oaks at Randwick.

AUSTRALIAN OAKS BETTING SNAPSHOT

Pavrita is the race favourite with bet365 after finishing runner-up in the Vinery Stud Stakes (2000m) and is at the $3.75 quote ahead of the New Zealand filly, Pennyweka at $5. The last start Adrian Knox Stakes (2000m) winner, Arts, is at $6.50. 

Polygon is the only other runner in single figures and is at $7. There are 15 runners in the field and it is Pierossa at $12, while the 2022 Golden Slipper (1200m) winner, Fireburn, is a $13 shot. Mountain Guest and Premise head the rest at the $17. 

AUSTRALIAN OAKS FORM ANALYSIS

Nine of the 15 runners come out of the Vinery Stud Stakes that was taken out by Prowess. That horse won’t be seen here and it was Pavrita that couldn’t quite go with the winner to finish runner-up, beaten three lengths. 

The Richard & Will Freedman galloper had a bit on the rest of them and went 1.6 lengths faster than standard benchmark. Fireburn produced an encouraging performance to grab 3rd, while Pierossa produced the fastest last 200m to finish 4th, just under a length from Pavrita. 

Pavrita is capable of raising the bar and her best figure came in the Wakeful Stakes (2000m) last year when going 9.1 lengths faster than standard. That is higher than what any runner in this race has produced. She then went on to finish runner-up in the VRC Oaks (2500m)

It is hard to make a case for most of the rest of the beaten brigade out of the Vinery Stud Stakes. So Dazzling was runner-up behind Pavrita at her start prior in the Kembla Grange Classic and did a few things wrong to finish 10th, beaten six lengths. She is one that could change things around and gets the ride from Joao Moreira, who was one of the stars of Day One of The Championships. 

Pennyweka brings the New Zealand form, just like Prowess in the Vinery Stud Stakes and is a clear fancy. She claimed the NZ Oaks (2400m) by three lengths at her last start, running 2:31.18 on the Slow track. The emerging filly performs on both wet and dry tracks and will be ridden by Damian Lane. 

The other key lead up to the Oaks is the Adrian Knox Stakes (2000m) with four runners backing up after last weekend. Arts settled back in the field on what was a slow tempo to power away in the last 200m, winning by four lengths. Not quite sure of what to make of the time out of that on what was a deteriorating track but the Team Snowden galloper must be considered. 

AUSTRALIAN OAKS TIPS AND BEST BETS

Bit of a tricky race to assess and I am keen to shop around for a bit of value. Liked the performance of Pierossa in the Vinery Stud Stakes, running home nicely off the slow tempo to produce the fastest last 200m. The daughter of Pierro worked home in similar fashion in the Kembla Grange Classic and gives the impression that the 2400m is right up her alley. She was a winner fourth up last time, albeit at Newcastle, but has clearly come back a more mature horse and is worth thought at the $13.