Queensland Derby Tips & Preview 2023

Looking for Queensland Derby tips and best bets? We dissect times and form to find the winner of the 2023 Queensland Derby at Eagle Farm.

QUEENSLAND DERBY BETTING SNAPSHOT

Kovalica is the dominant favourite with ladbrokes after finishing 3rd in the Doomben Cup (2000m) last weekend and is at the $1.95 quote, while the last start South Australian Derby (2500m) runner-up, Promises Kept, is at $6.

Aberfeldie Boy and Special Swey are both at $10, while The Vowels is at $13. There are 20 final acceptors, including two emergencies and it is Stroke Of Luck that is at $17, while Xtrarevz heads the rest at the $26. 

QUEENSLAND DERBY FORM ANALYSIS

Kovalica is the horse to beat and is on the one week back up after running 3rd in the Doomben Cup. He defeated a number of the rivals that he meets in this race two starts ago in the Queensland Guineas (1600m) before taking on the older horses, settling forward of midfield before running on to go 5.3 lengths faster than standard benchmark, which is the best last start figure of any runner.

His personal best came earlier this preparation when resuming in the South Pacific Stakes (1400m) at Randwick, going 8.3 lengths faster than standard. The son of Ocean Park looks like he will get the 2200m and back against his own age group he should be tough to beat. 

Seven contenders had their most recent start in the Rough Habit Plate (2000m) at Doomben on May 13 and it was Special Swey that led all the way to take out the Group 3 ahead of The Vowels and Stroke Of Luck. The former Kiwi is now in the hands of Chris Waller and went 3.8 lengths faster than standard to win by more than a length. 

The Vowels produced the fastest 400m-200m split but couldn’t reel in the leader. Stroke Of Luck seemed to have every chance. Cut On A Dime was 4th. Tapildoodledo was wide before finishing 5th. Xtrarevz settled back and produced the fastest last 200m. He comes into this race with better tempo but has more than five lengths to make up. 

Promises Kept and Aberfeldie Boy filled the minor placings in the South Australian Derby and come to Brisbane with the fitness under their belts. Promises Kept jumped from a Sale Maiden win three starts ago before taking out the Bendigo St Leger Trial and is two from two at the distance. He looked home in the Derby before being grabbed late by Dunkel. Look for the Maher/Eustace galloper to go forward. 

Aberfeldie Boy was wide without cover in the SA Derby before sticking on. He placed at this stage of his last preparation in the Victoria Derby and loves the 2000m and beyond. I suspect the winner out of this race is either Kovalica, or one that comes out of either the Rough Habit Plate or the SA Derby, 

Andalus had his most recent start in the Australian Derby (2400m), running 7th. The former Kiwi will need to improve on what he showed at Randwick and was runner-up in the New Zealand Derby (2400m) at his start prior. 

Fame comes from the Peter Moody camp and has won his past two by a combined margin of nearly 10 lengths but this is a big step up from a 0-64 race at Sale. Sacred Mission won well at Ipswich over the 2200m at his most recent start but is another that will need to produce a big personal best. 

Smartawl is a roughie that can measure up and was solid late in the piece over the 2000m at Rosehill at his most recent start, going 2.8 lengths faster than standard off a slow tempo. Look for the Gregory Hickman-trained galloper to be running on. 

QUEENSLAND DERBY TIPS AND BEST BETS

This looks to be Kovalica’s for the taking and the Waller galloper found the line well over the 1600m to defeat the fellow three-year-olds two starts ago before running 3rd at Group 1 level last weekend. The question will be how well he can back up but we must trust the stable, while barrier 5 and James McDonald on board are further ticks. He shouldn’t be too far away in a race where there doesn’t appear to be huge amounts of pressure up forward. Next best is Aberfeldie Boy, while roughie backers should consider Smartawl, who does have a bit of talent and looks like the step up to the 2200m should suit.