Victoria Derby Winning Trends

Victoria Derby trends


The Victoria Derby (2500m) for the three-year-olds is one of the oldest races on the calendar and we take a look at the Victoria Derby winning trends.

The staying race for the three-year-olds has a rich history with many winners going on to bigger and better things. Some of the more notable winners in recent times include Preferment (2014), Efficient (2007) and Elvstroem (2004).

Taking a look at the Victoria Derby winning trends since the year 2000, there are a few things you should consider when trying to find a winner.

The race has been a tricky one for punters in recent years as there have been some big blowouts, most notably the 2008 Derby won by Rebel Raider. The Leon MacDonald trained galloper scored at the remarkable odds of $101, defeating the hotpot, Whobegotyou, who started at $1.70.

Fiveandahalfstar was a relatively unknown galloper when he scored at $41 in 2012 ahead of It’s A Dundeel ($2.75). Last year’s winner, Warning, won at $9.50, while Extra Brut, scored at $10 in 2018. Shadow Hero and Thinkin’ are recent popular elects that have finished out of the placings.

Ace High scores as a $7 favourite in 2017, while Tarzino ($2.90 in 2015) and Efficient ($2.35 in 2007) are among those that have scored at shorter prices in recent times. Only six favourites have won since 2000 and the average price of the victorious horses is $13.85.

In early markets with NEDS this year, Young Werther is a $3.40 chance had of Cherry Tortoni at $4.80. Hit The Shot is at $7, while Albarado and Let’s Karaka Deal (both $8) are others under double figures. Redwood Shadow is at $11 and heads a host of others.

Cherry Tortoni fared poorly at the barrier draw and is in the widest barrier in the field of 14. Despite the long distance of the race, horses to have drawn out have tended to be disadvantaged. Only six winners have come from outside barrier 9 since the year 2000, including Extra Brut, who jumped from 13 in 2018. Tarzino drew Barrier 10 in 2015, while Lion Tamer came from 14 in 2010.

Cetshwayo (10), Token Spirit (11), Redwood Shadow (12) and Tour Of Duty (13) are others to have drawn out this year. 11 of the 20 winners since 2000 have drawn between barriers 1-6. Young Werther has drawn right in the sweet spot at barrier 4.

The youngsters come from a variety of lead ups, including the Moonee Valley Vase (2040m) and the Norman Robinson (2000m). The Vase has provided nine of the 20 winners since 2000, making it the best form reference, while six winners have come out of the Norman Robinson, including the last two.

This year, Cherry Tortoni claimed the Moonee Valley Vase, while Johnny Get Angry was 3rd. Only three of the nine winners that came out of the Moonee Vase were able to do the double and they were Helenus, Plastered and Efficient.

Young Werther was scratched from the Vase last weekend and had his last start in the Super Impose Stakes (1800m). He will have to defy history as every winner of the Derby since 2000 had their prior run at 2000m except for Fiveandahalfstar, who jumped from a BenchMark 72 win over the 1800m at Rosehill prior to his win ad odds in 2012.

Runners to come out of the Norman Robinson this year include Abarado, Let’s Karaka Deel and Hit The Shot. That trio filled the trifecta in that race. Token Spirit is among three runners that come out of the Geelong Classic (2200m). Preferment won that lead up in 2014 before winning the Derby, while Rebel Raider ran 3rd in 2008 before his blowout win.

Seven of the 20 winners since 2000 were coming off a last start win, while a further nine were placed, meaning that it is ideal to have come into the race with a top three finish under your belt.

The most successful jockey in the race since 2000 has been Damien Oliver with five wins, while Hugh Bowman has taken out the race on three occasions. This year, Oliver rides Young Werther. John Allen was successful in 2018 and he rides Let’s Karaka Deel.

Of the trainers in this year’s field, Mick Price has tasted success with Tarzino and he combines with Michael Kent Jnr with Redwood Shadow. Trent Busuttin prepared Sangster in 20111 and has Albarado this year. Michael Moroney trained Monaco Consul in 2009 and has Wisaka.

Selection based on the Victoria Derby winning trends:
Recent history suggests that Young Werther has an uphill battle to win as he missed the final lead up, while favourites haven’t fared well in this race. Consider one of those that finished in the top three in the Moonee Valley Vase or the Norman Robinson. Of that group, Let’s Karaka Deel ticks the most boxes.

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