Kilmore Racing Tips 31 March 2026 — can the Hayes yard control the card?
Ascot Racing Tips 1 April — can Masmelo finish it off?
The W.A. Oaks is the one everyone will build their day around, but it’s also the race that forces you to take a stance: do you trust the progressive filly who’s already handled Ascot, or do you take the “new trip, new test” angle and try to beat her? That’s the spine of this meeting for me.
We’ve got six races on the turf at Ascot, and the card reads like a mix of proven Ascot runners and lightly raced types who’ve barely had time to show their hand. That matters because plenty of the course numbers today sit in the one to three run range. Treat them as clues, not gospel.
These Ascot racing tips lean into what’s solid: who’s actually been winning lately, who maps to get the run, and which connections keep turning up with runners that hold their form. There’s one race I’m happy to bet properly into, and a couple I’ll play lighter because the shape looks messy.
Ascot — the setup
Limited course form across today’s fields. A lot of runners have one or two starts at Ascot, so I’m not going to pretend we’ve got a stack of “track specialists” to lean on. Where it is meaningful today is with the riders and a couple of trainers who pile up enough volume here for the percentages to matter.
Lucy Fiore is the standout on raw Ascot output: 69 rides for 16 wins, and she hits the frame 30 times. Chris Parnham also does plenty right here, while Holly Nottle’s in everything with 77 rides and 31 placings. If you’re playing exotics, those names keep you alive.
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| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucy Fiore | 69 | 16 | 30 | 23.19 | 43.48 |
| Chris Parnham | 46 | 9 | 18 | 19.57 | 39.13 |
| B Parnham | 54 | 7 | 21 | 12.96 | 38.89 |
| Holly Nottle | 77 | 9 | 31 | 11.69 | 40.26 |
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T M Andrews | 20 | 5 | 12 | 25.00 | 60.00 |
| D L Morton | 33 | 7 | 15 | 21.21 | 45.45 |
| Luke Fernie | 26 | 5 | 13 | 19.23 | 50.00 |
| A G Durrant | 51 | 5 | 25 | 9.80 | 49.02 |
Odds note: no live Ascot odds were available in the feed at publish time, so prices aren’t quoted below. If you’re shopping around, I’ve put a quick pointer in the FAQ.
Race-by-race
Race 1: Peters Investments Hcp — 12:24, 1094m
Slip The Jab is the obvious improver and I’m happy to be with him again. Two straight wins coming into a new prep is the kind of profile you want in these early-season 3yo handicaps, and the set-up looks friendly: gate 4 gives Chris Parnham options to either hold a spot one off the speed or punch through if they dawdle. Luke Fernie’s Ascot record holds up on volume too, so when his horse is in form, I don’t fight it.
The race does have a map threat in Hurricane Harley from gate 3. That 6212 profile says she’s reliable, and Lucy Fiore’s the best “get it right at Ascot” rider on the card. If Hurricane Harley controls the first half and turns it into a sprint from the 400m, she can pinch it.
Staking: Win bet Slip The Jab. Small saver exacta with Hurricane Harley if you like playing the pace angle.
Race 2: Unite Resourcing Plate — 12:59, 1312m
Here’s the question: do you back the one with exposed form, or the debutant with the right stable and the right jockey? I lean to the one who’s already shown he can cop race pressure.
One Last Resort comes off a 32 profile and draws gate 6, which is usually fine over this trip if the rider doesn’t panic early. Joey Azzopardi rides Ascot well enough with a proper sample, and the Casey stable knows how to place these babies without scaring them off. The main thing is this: two runs, two competitive efforts. That’s bankable compared to guessing.
The danger is Divine Mirage from gate 3. She’s been around the money early (43 form) and gets the soft weight (121.2). If she lands in the first three pairs with cover, she’ll be the one hitting the line when others are still learning how to travel.
Staking: Small win bet One Last Resort. If you want insurance, play a quinella with Divine Mirage rather than going wide.
Race 3: Schweppes – Melvista Stakes — 13:34, 2406m
This is where the stable intent speaks. Chris Parnham sticks with Aberdeen Flyer, and that reads like a “we’re here to win, not to make up the numbers” booking.
Aberdeen Flyer’s form line (2-5321) screams that the penny has dropped, and he’s already shown he can handle Ascot: three course runs for a win and he’s placed every time he’s come here. Over the staying trip, that matters, because some of these will find out they’re 200m horses trying to get 2400m. He draws 7, but in a small field that’s more about timing than panic. Let him roll into it and sustain a run.
Sentimental Legend is the clear danger. She’s got that 1-312 profile and she’s placed on her only Ascot start. Lucy Fiore lifts anything with a staying platform, and gate 2 helps her hold a sweet trail if they don’t overdo it early.
Staking: Win bet Aberdeen Flyer. If you’re playing a saver, keep it tight: saver win Sentimental Legend only, not a spread.
Race 4: Tabtouch – Westspeed Platinum (Rs0ly) — 14:09, 1203m
The market often overreacts to a last-start win in these races and forgets the basics: barrier, weight, and who can actually land in the first four without spending petrol. I’m going to the inside-run profile.
Soldier Of God draws barrier 1 and comes off a last-start win (4-09251). That’s a horse who’s finally found the right rhythm, and from gate 1 MS L Staples can make the race simple: hold a spot, don’t get strung up, and kick at the right time. Soldier Of God’s Ascot history is four starts for one win and another placing. That’s not a “specialist” sample, but it’s enough to say he’s comfortable here.
The danger is Girls Day Out with Lucy Fiore aboard. She won on her only start at Ascot, and the Morton stable is a serious factor at this track on volume. Gate 6 lets her slide into a stalking spot and be the one with first crack if the leaders go too hard.
Staking: Each-way Soldier Of God (map-driven, not talent worship). Saver win Girls Day Out if she starts shorter than you’re comfortable letting go.
Race 5: Epilepsy Wa (Bm72+) — 14:44, 1750m
This is the best betting race on the card because you can make a clean case built on real Ascot evidence and current form.
The Crimson Pirate brings the right mix: he’s been to Ascot three times for two wins and he’s placed in all three visits, and he arrives off a sharp 22-113 profile. That’s not just “in form”, that’s a horse who turns up and runs to his level. Drawn gate 5, Lucy Fiore can keep him out of trouble and make one move. In a 1750m race, that’s gold because the riders who chase three-wide runs tend to get found out late.
King Hit is the danger and he’s a proper one. Four runs at Ascot for two wins and another placing, and his recent profile (5-25911) says he’s peaking. If he gets the right trail from gate 2, he can absolutely beat my pick with a sit-and-sprint.
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Staking: Win bet The Crimson Pirate. If you want cover, save on King Hit. I’d rather do that than bet trifectas in a race with two obvious winning profiles.
Race 6: Drummond Golf – W.A. Oaks — 15:20, 2625m
The contrast is clean: Masmelo looks like the logical “just keeps improving” filly, while Wonderfully Made is the boom-runner with the streak on the page. The tempo decides which profile wins, but I’m siding with the one I trust to settle and stay.
Masmelo has built to this the right way (16-321) and she won on her only start at Ascot, which at least tells you she handles the track. The key for the Oaks is tractability, and Chris Parnham is the rider you want when the trip stretches and the moves come earlier than people expect. From gate 3, he can have her in a rhythm instead of dragging her through traffic. Her recent stats back up the story too: three runs in the window for one win and she’s been placed every time. She keeps turning up.
Wonderfully Made is the danger because she’s simply winning races (7-1113) and Lucy Fiore will have her in the right lanes when it counts. She’s had two runs at Ascot for a win and another placing, so she’s not walking in blind. Gate 8 is the concern over this trip because it can force her to do work early if they stack up, and you don’t want to pay that price at 2600m.
Staking: Win bet Masmelo. If Wonderfully Made drifts to a price that respects the gate, I’ll have a saver. If she’s short, I let her beat me.
The plays
NAP: The Crimson Pirate (Race 5, 14:44). Two wins from three at Ascot and he’s been placed every time he’s come here. Add the 22-113 form line and Lucy Fiore steering, and it’s the clearest “bet into it” setup.
Value: Soldier Of God (Race 4, 14:09) each-way. Barrier 1 and a last-start win is the combo that can outrun the hype around the flashier names drawn wider.
Banker for multis: Masmelo (Race 6, 15:20). She’s trending the right way, draws to get the run, and the Oaks often rewards the filly who relaxes and stays rather than the one who sprints best at the 400m.
Each-way profile: King Hit (Race 5, 14:44). Four Ascot runs for two wins and another placing makes him the logical “runs top three” horse in the best race to bet.
Course angle: when you’re tossing up between similar horses, follow the riders who consistently make Ascot work. Fiore and Chris Parnham are the safest hands on this card by a margin, and they land on the key chances in the two strongest betting races.
Keep an eye on how the on-pace horses fare in Race 1 and Race 2. If they’re hard to run down early, it strengthens the inside draw case in the sprints later.
FAQ
What time does racing start at Ascot today?
Racing starts at Ascot at 12:24 with the Peters Investments Hcp over 1094m.
Who are the top jockeys and trainers at Ascot on today’s numbers?
On Ascot volume, Lucy Fiore leads the jockey ranks today with 69 rides, 16 wins and 30 placings at the track. Chris Parnham also stacks up strongly with 46 rides and 9 wins.
Trainer-wise, the deepest Ascot profile in today’s set is D L Morton with 33 runners for 7 wins here, while Luke Fernie has 26 runners for 5 wins and places half his team at the track.
What are the best bets at Ascot today?
My best bet is The Crimson Pirate in Race 5 (14:44). He’s got the strongest blend of current form (22-113) and proven Ascot performance with two wins from three runs here.
If you want a second anchor, Masmelo in the W.A. Oaks (Race 6, 15:20) looks the most reliable staying profile with a soft draw and a win on her only Ascot appearance.
Where can I find the best Ascot odds today?
Prices can vary a lot between corporates, especially in the 2yo race and the Oaks where opinions differ. Use your bookie’s comparison screen, or check multiple bookmaker apps close to jump time. Live odds weren’t available in the feed at publish time, so I’ve kept this article focused on the form and the map rather than pretending at prices.
Which runners have proven Ascot form on today’s card?
The clearest Ascot performer is The Crimson Pirate (Race 5), with three runs at Ascot for two wins. King Hit (also Race 5) has four Ascot runs for two wins. In the Oaks, Wonderfully Made has two Ascot runs for a win and another placing, and Masmelo won on her only start at the track.
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