Scone Racing Tips 20 March — can Inazuma Boy keep rolling?
Ascot Racing Tips 21 March 2026 — can Fernie own the sprints?
Opening
Luke Fernie doesn’t need to dominate a meeting on volume to shape it — he just needs the right horses in the right races. And on this Ascot card, he’s got fingerprints all over the two key sprints: Excess Baggage in the opener and Stormchaser in the Rock Magic. Two different setups, two different profiles… but both land in races where the map and the weights matter more than any one flashy last-start margin.
You’re getting three races on the program, all on turf, and the punting challenge is simple: don’t overreact to tiny “Ascot records” from horses with one run here, but do respect riders and stables who repeatedly get it right at this track. These Ascot racing tips lean into that balance — where the course patterns are real, I’ll use them, and where they’re just noise, I’ll call them noise and move on.
Ascot — the setup
We don’t have going listed in the race data, so I’m treating this as a standard Ascot sprint setup: barriers and intent matter, and if you can hold a spot without burning petrol, you’re halfway home.
Course form is a bit thin across today’s fields — plenty of runners have only one or two Ascot starts, so treat most of those “records” as a note, not a conviction.
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Jockeys who repeatedly perform at Ascot (5+ rides):
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucy Fiore | 62 | 16 | 28 | 25.81% | 45.16% |
| Chris Parnham | 41 | 8 | 16 | 19.51% | 39.02% |
| Holly Nottle | 72 | 8 | 27 | 11.11% | 37.50% |
| B Parnham | 47 | 6 | 18 | 12.77% | 38.30% |
Trainers with meaningful Ascot volume (5+ runners):
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T M Andrews | 20 | 5 | 12 | 25.00% | 60.00% |
| Luke Fernie | 21 | 4 | 11 | 19.05% | 52.38% |
| C & M Gangemi | 21 | 2 | 11 | 9.52% | 52.38% |
| J P Taylor | 24 | 3 | 9 | 12.50% | 37.50% |
| Michael Grantham | 17 | 3 | 5 | 17.65% | 29.41% |
Race-by-race
Race 1: MC Polytrack Hcp — 11:44, 1312m
I’m with Excess Baggage. The formline tells you this horse is right in the zone: 71-712 reads like a runner who’s turned the corner and is holding that level. In the last 90 days, it’s 3 runs for 1 win and 2 placings — not a monster sample, but enough to say the stable has it firing and the horse is repeatedly turning up.
The draw (3) is a gift in a 1312m handicap where you don’t want to be doing cartwheels early. Add Chris Parnham — who wins nearly one in five of his Ascot rides — and this looks like a horse that can land in the first three pairs without spending. If he controls the pressure, the race becomes his to lose from the 500m.
Danger: God’s Cross has the “always there” look of a horse that keeps giving you a sight (4122), and its recent 90-day profile stacks up too: 4 runs, 1 win, 3 placings. The knock? Barrier 6 means Whiting probably has to make a decision early, and Whiting’s still chasing his first Ascot win from 35 rides — he places often enough, but he doesn’t get many races to fall his way late.
Staking: Win bet Excess Baggage. Save/cover quinella with God’s Cross if you’re playing wider.
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Race 2: Morley Growers Market (Rs1mw) — 12:19, 1094m
This is the race where the shape matters more than the headlines. A stack of these want to be handy, and over 1094m that can turn into a short, sharp contest where the first horse to blink loses the race.
I’m siding with Cannykev because he brings the most reliable mix of Ascot experience and current consistency without needing a perfect storm. He’s been to Ascot three times for one win and two placings — that’s an emerging pattern, not a “specialist”, but it’s still more bankable than the unknowns. Over the last 90 days he’s gone 4 starts: 1 win, 3 placings. That’s a proper “turn up and run” profile.
From gate 6, Natika Riordan has a choice: push and risk working, or slide across and find cover. I’d rather see her positive but not manic — get him rolling, let him build, don’t turn it into a drag race from the 600m.
Danger: Desert Life is the one that can blow up your bet if the pace collapses late. Chris Parnham rides, Lane trains, and Lane’s Ascot record is solid from volume (18 runners here with a strong strike rate). Desert Life is drawn 5 and looks like the horse who can stalk rather than lead.
Staking: Cannykev each-way (or win/place split). If the market pushes him into a short quote, I’d rather play him place and save on Desert Life to win.
Race 3: Rock Magic Stakes — 12:55, 1094m
The market problem here (once it forms) is that punters will want to live in the past: old sprinters, old names, one flashy last-start win. I’m more interested in the horse who’s already proven it can do this job at Ascot today — with the right rider on.
Almighty Class gets my vote. Yes, it’s only had one start at Ascot, but it won that day — call it “won on its only start here” and move on. The bigger push is connections: T M Andrews places his Ascot horses better than most (20 runners here for a quarter winning and 60% hitting the frame), and Chris Parnham is exactly who you want holding a position in a hot 1094m. This is a deliberate setup, not a throw-at-the-darts.
Acromantula is the obvious threat and I respect it. It also won on its only Ascot start, and it comes in off a 479-41 pattern that screams “still interested”. The query is the draw (6) in a small field: Lucy Fiore rides Ascot as well as anyone, but she’ll need to time the move — don’t get stuck three-deep, don’t get tricked into going too early.
Staking: Win bet Almighty Class. Exacta saver Almighty Class/Acromantula if you want a tighter two-horse play.
The plays
NAP: Excess Baggage (Race 1, 11:44). The profile is clean: barrier 3, Chris Parnham aboard, and a recent 90-day record of 3 runs for a win and two placings tells you the horse is holding form rather than spiking once.
Value: Cannykev (Race 2, 12:19) if the price drifts because of the wide-ish draw. He’s been to Ascot three times for one win and two placings, and he’s been a model of consistency lately with 4 runs for 1 win and 3 placings in the last 90 days.
Banker for multis: Almighty Class (Race 3, 12:55). Andrews is a proven Ascot placer (20 runners here, 60% in the frame), and Parnham’s track strike makes the ride a genuine edge.
Each-way angle: Stick with Cannykev — this is the race most likely to be won by the horse who lands in the right spot, not necessarily the one with the “best” closing sectionals on paper.
Course angle to keep: when Andrews and Chris Parnham combine at Ascot, they’re rarely there to make up numbers — watch how often that pairing turns into a mid-card anchor bet through the autumn.
FAQ
What time does racing start at Ascot today?
Racing kicks off at 11:44 with the MC Polytrack Hcp over 1312m.
Who are the top jockeys at Ascot?
From riders booked on this meeting, Lucy Fiore has the best Ascot strike from volume (62 rides for 16 wins, 28 placings). Chris Parnham is close behind for punting purposes (41 rides for 8 wins, 16 placings) and he features in all three races on the card.
Who are the top trainers at Ascot?
T M Andrews leads the “reliable at Ascot” cohort: 20 runners at the track with 5 wins and 12 placings (60% place rate). Luke Fernie also stacks up strongly from similar volume (21 runners, 4 wins, 11 placings).
What are the best bets at Ascot today?
My best bet is Excess Baggage in Race 1 (11:44). The safer multi anchor is Almighty Class in the Rock Magic Stakes (12:55) with Andrews/Parnham and a “won on its only Ascot start” tick.
Where can I find the best odds for Ascot races?
Odds weren’t available through the feed for this meeting at the time of writing, so shop around with the major books and bet closer to jump when markets firm. If you’re comparing runners, start with Race 1 and Race 3 — they’re the races where a small price can still be justified by profile and connections.
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