New Zealand Preview & Best Bets – 04/11/2023
New Zealand Tips for Saturday, November 4
Our form expert provides New Zealand tips for today’s horse racing at Tauranga and Trentham and gives his best bets.
BEST BET 🏆
Race 9: No.3 SPORTING CHANCE ($4 with bet365)
Andrew Forsman saddles-up SPORTING CHANCE here who is third-up today and looks a genuine winning chance in this contest. Last start, the Dundeel gelding showed a vast improvement from his first-up failure when he finished third in a tight finish, here over the mile in a BM65 event. Never on the track, he travelled three-wide to the turn and was under heavy pressure from there, but found another gear and finished strongly to cross the line less than half a length from the winner. The rise in trip today looks ideal and already a winner when third-up, career-win number three looks on the cards.
NEXT BEST 🥈
Race 5: No.8 MERCURIAL ($4.60 with bet365)
The Stephen Marsh-trained MERCURIAL is third-up today and should be ready to fire all guns at this contest. Last start, the Burgundy gelding showed further improvement when he lined-up in the Group 3 Spring Sprint at Hastings and did well to finish third in the 1400m event with Sam Spratt in the saddle. Ideally drawn in gate two today, he comes nicely at the weights with 54kgs and has Spratt sticking with him. He is a two-time winner (from three attempts) when third-up and should take beating here.
BEST VALUE 💰
Race 8: No.5 CORK ($6 with bet365)
The Matamata-based galloper CORK has mixed form this time in but boasting an unbeaten record here, looks in the mix for a podium finish today. Last start, the Complacent mare made it consecutive unplaced runs (over 1600m) when she finished mid-field in the Listed Matamata Cup. Today, she drops sharply in grade and returns to a more suitable trip where she is already a winner. Michael McNab returns for today’s assignment (having ridden her to victory at his only previous ride) and already a track and distance winner, we should see a different horse today.
BEST BET 🏆
Race 3: No.2 THE STONEY ONE ($4.20 with Palmerbet)
Guy Lowry saddles-up THE STONEY ONE here who is in top-shelf form and fitter for two runs back this preparation, should prove very hard to beat in this contest. Last start, the Pierro gelding relished the Heavy 9 when he took out a BM75 over 1200m at Hastings. He meets similar company today and draws perfectly in gate two where he maps to be box-seating on settling. His last seven starts all ended in podium finishes so he heads the list for consistency on the track. Rock-hard fit off two runs back, he looks the best of the day.
NEXT BEST 🥈
Race 7: No.4 ONE BOLD CAT ($4.25 with BoomBet)
Robbie Patterson saddles-up ONE BOLD CAT here who ticks enough boxes to make things look very interesting in this contest. Last start, the five-year-old was second-up when he finished fourth in the Group 3 Thompson Hcp, here over 1600m. He settled last that day, ten lengths off the pace and was still there as they turned the corner. He finished the race by far the best of them, arriving in time to claim fourth prize on the line. The step-up in trip looks ideal for him now as Craig Grylls returns for the ride (having steered him to victory four starts back). His six starts on heavy tracks resulted in four wins so conditions look ideal for him here. Already a winner when third-up, watch for a big finish today.
BEST VALUE 💰
Race 5: No.9 SOLDIER BOY ($9.50 with Unibet)
The Gavin Sharrock-trained SOLDIER BOY is second-up today and looks great value in a race of this nature. Last start, the Proisir gelding resumed off a nine-week break when he was a shade disappointing, finishing unplaced in the Group 3 Thompson Hcp (1600m) on this track. Craig Grylls returns for this assignment as the five-year-old gets the gun-run from gate one today. Already a winner when second-up, this is an easier contest for him and fitter for that last start, he weighs in here as a winning chance today.