Overview
Prince Is Game is the best bet of the day because it won last start and already has a win and three placings from four visits to Taree, the strongest course line in the Race 1 field. Barrier 1 lets L P Rolls save ground over the 2000m, and at 2.10 there is a fair return on a horse that knows the track.
Three selections from two meetings, Taree and Bathurst, make up the card. The best bet and the value bet carry live prices. The quaddie horse, Fierceness, runs in a Taree Gold Cup whose market wasn’t open when this was written, so check the price before you build around it.
The best bet
Prince Is Game, Taree Race 1, 1:10PM, 2.10 with Neds.
A win and three placings from four Taree starts is an emerging pattern rather than a specialist’s record, but in a seven-horse staying race nothing else brings a course line like it. It also arrives off a win, so the form is current rather than something to dig up from last year.
The draw does the rest. From barrier 1, Rolls can hold the rail and let the race come to him, and the weight is reasonable against the top two.
Purple Kitty is the danger. It ran second last time and has hit the frame six times from nine runs over the past three months, so it will be close. The problem is turning those placings into wins, and that is why Prince Is Game is the one to back.
The value bet
Amahtrom, Bathurst Race 1, 1:25PM, 4.60 with Palmerbet.
The market has Hellfire Henry on top, but the Bathurst preview sides with Amahtrom in a weak opening maiden. The three year old ran eighth on debut and then jumped to second at its only run since mid July. A leap like that usually means the penny has dropped.
Rob Potter’s runner gets 1400m with one of the lighter weights, and Damon Budler has a win from five Bathurst rides. Hellfire Henry placed on its sole Bathurst visit for a J M Austin stable that places with half its runners here, so it is the obvious danger, with Chrislyn next. This is a small win stake rather than a big swing, but the price is the right side of the form.
The quaddie angle
Fierceness, Taree Race 7, 4:50PM.
Taree’s quaddie runs from Race 5 to Race 8, and the Gold Cup in Race 7 is the leg to anchor. Fierceness has won three of its last four starts in the past three months and placed in the other, with back-to-back wins coming in. That is a horse in a winning sequence.
Ashley Morgan rides, and she has won eight times from 23 Taree rides, the best strike rate of any jockey at the meeting. Her partnership with trainer Matthew Smith has produced eight wins and 23 placings from 55 rides. Fierceness draws 7 and carries a good deal less than Sosino.
Lensman is the danger: second last time and placed three times from four recent runs. Single Fierceness in the Gold Cup leg and spread in the other three.
How these were picked
All three come from the full previews for Gatton, Taree, Penola, Bathurst, Sunshine Coast, Launceston and Cranbourne. When this was written, only the early races at Taree and Bathurst had live prices, so form alone could not decide it.
That is why strong top picks such as Tara’s Reward at Gatton, Midnight Affair at Bathurst, Glory Mission at Launceston and Oceanella at Cranbourne miss out: their markets were not open, and an unpriced pick is hard to act on. Raguel, the Bathurst banker, is left out because it is also entered in Taree Race 8 with the same jockey. Fierceness is the one exception, because no quaddie race on the day had a price yet and it is the strongest anchor across the seven meetings.