Overview
Zephirine is the bet of the day. It has won five of its eight starts at Mount Isa and placed in seven of them, and Tanya Parry has scratched it from the 1100m handicap later in the day to run in the opener, which tells you where the stable thinks the best chance is.
Three selections from two of Monday’s meetings, Mt Isa and Hamilton. Scone has been abandoned, which took out the original best bet, Tasman Deel, and the Mt Isa markets have opened since this was first written. All three selections now carry a live price.
The best bet
Zephirine, Mt Isa Race 1, 11:12, 2.70 with Bet Right.
The Trevor Morris Builders (Bm65) is a 1450m race that scratchings have cut to four runners, and Zephirine meets three rivals on a track it has made its own: five wins and seven placings from eight starts at Mt Isa. The form has held up lately too, with two wins and three placings from four runs in the last three months. Hayley Saunders rides, and Saunders has won four of 12 rides for Parry here.
Parry entered Zephirine for the 1100m handicap at 12:57 as well and pulled it out of that one to keep it here, so the stable has picked its spot. The price is short, so this is a bet for confidence and for multis rather than for a big return.
Indefinite, at 3.70 with Bet Right, is the danger on numbers alone, a placegetter twice from four recent starts without winning. Regal Judgement has won both of its runs at Mt Isa for Bevan Johnson, but its recent form has cooled to one win from six.
The value bet
Never Pegasus, Hamilton Race 2, 2:00, 4.20 with Unibet.
Rentier is the 2.50 favourite in this maiden on the strength of a third, a third and a fourth from three career starts. Never Pegasus has done more: six runs in the last 90 days for four placings, including a second last start, and the S & J Jaensch runner gets L J Meech, who has won six of her 19 rides at Hamilton.
That is the more consistent horse with the better rider, and it is the one at the bigger price. The knock is obvious: six runs without a win can easily become seven. Back it win and place.
Rentier is the main danger for D Yendall and the L Smith stable, and Piklemegranmother, second at its only Hamilton start, is the other to respect.
The quaddie angle
Napoleon Strike, Mt Isa Race 4, 12:57, 7.00 with Bet Right.
Race 4 opens the Mt Isa quaddie over Races 4 to 7, and with Zephirine scratched from it the race is wide open. Napoleon Strike is one of the best course performers on the card, with four wins and six placings from 12 starts at Mt Isa. It has not won in four runs in the last three months but placed in two of them, and the drop back to 1100m on a track it knows suits. Mitch Goring takes the ride, and he and Parry have 18 placings from 27 runs together here.
That makes it the horse to build the first leg around, and at 7.00 it is worth a win bet in its own right. Polly Hoffa, the original pick for this slot, runs in the last leg, and its market still had not opened this morning.
Pennypacker is the obvious danger for the Royes stable. Its course record is a win and three placings from five, but it finished fifth on its only recent start.
How these were picked
All three come from our full previews for Hamilton, Scone, Lismore and Mt Isa. We went through every NAP, Value, Banker and Each-way pick, then read the live prices on each racecard and favoured runners bookmakers were already pricing.
That cost three of the four NAPs. Ramelle at Hamilton and Bills Angel at Lismore run in races with no market yet, and Ocean Tsunami‘s Scone meeting has since been abandoned, so they stay in their previews rather than here. Zephirine at Mt Isa came into the market this morning and moves up to the best bet. For the value slot, Parting The Seas at Lismore (4.00 with Palmerbet) was the alternative, but Never Pegasus has the longer run of placings behind it. In the quaddie legs, Napoleon Strike and Daybreak Warrior at Mt Isa were the only priced picks this morning, and Napoleon Strike has the deeper course record.