Overview
Autumn Heir is the bet of the day, because the K A Lees and A Bullock partnership has a record at Port Macquarie that is hard to argue with: three wins and six placings from seven rides together. He ran second at his latest start and gets 2000m on a soft surface in a modest Benchmark 58.
Three selections, all from Port Macquarie. The best bet and the value bet carry live prices; the Race 4 maiden behind the quaddie angle has no market up yet, so check the price before you play it. Several of the day’s stronger form picks had no market yet, which shaped where these landed.
The best bet
Autumn Heir, Port Macquarie Race 2, 2:25, 2.25 with Bet Right.
This is a stable booking with evidence behind it. Lees and Bullock have teamed up seven times at Port Macquarie and finished in the first three on six of them, winning three. Autumn Heir arrives off a second at his latest start, so the form is current, and his profile is the more progressive one in the race. He jumps from barrier 9 with 58.5kg.
The danger is Farraige, the best course horse on the card with two wins and four placings from five starts here. B Looker rides from barrier 2, so he should sit handy and kick first. That is a genuine threat, but the trip and the surface suit the horse who can travel and still finish, and that is Autumn Heir.
The value bet
Argerich, Port Macquarie Race 1, 1:50, 14.00 with Unibet.
Course knowledge is the case here. Argerich has nine starts at Port Macquarie, more than anything else in the race, for two wins and four placings, and he arrives off a win at his latest start. He also drops to 55kg in this Benchmark 66 over 1500m, and at $14 the market is treating a last-start winner on a track he knows as a long shot.
The danger is Rose Water. Her trainer J C Deamer has won with three of the five runners he has brought here, and Ashley Morgan wins more than a third of her rides at this track. Uncle Harry heads the market for A Bullock but has placed twice from five starts over the last three months without winning. The Port Macquarie preview has Rose Water on top, so Argerich is the price play behind her rather than a confident win bet.
The quaddie angle
Sacred Well, Port Macquarie Race 4, 3:40, no price available yet.
The Port Macquarie quaddie runs Races 4 to 7, and the first leg is where to take a stand. K A Lees sends four to this maiden and gives the Bullock booking to Sacred Well, the same partnership behind the best bet. The three-year-old ran third at the only start in the last 90 days, and a form line of 9-3-5-3 says the penny is dropping.
Barrier 15 is the knock, and Bullock will have to decide early whether to go forward or take a sit. Lottery Link is the main danger, placing in three of five runs over the last three months for Glen Milligan without winning.
How these were picked
All three come from the full preview for Port Macquarie, with Quirindi, Eagle Farm, Cairns, Bunbury and Seymour also covered today. Price decided the close calls. Insta Worthy at Cairns, Pink Dogwood at Eagle Farm, Diamond Eye at Seymour, Polymer at Port Macquarie and Burning Ambition at Quirindi all have strong cases as their meetings’ top picks, but none of their races had a market up when this was written, so a priced runner with a comparable case took each slot instead.
Our Astute Lass at Quirindi was the original value pick, but her race had no market up this morning, so Argerich, the value play in the Port Macquarie preview, takes the slot. Gattino Veloce at Seymour, 6.50 with Unibet, was considered too, though its race sits outside the Seymour quaddie and its case is consistency rather than a winning profile.