Overview
Flaressence is the best bet of the day. She has finished in the first three on all four of her runs in the last 90 days, placed on both visits to Eagle Farm, and gets the lightest weight in the opener on a Heavy track. Nothing else across Wednesday’s cards has a profile that reliable with a price already up.
These are three selections from two meetings, Eagle Farm and Bendigo. Two of them have live prices. The third, So You Are in the Bendigo Cup, is unpriced because the Cup market wasn’t open when this was written, so check the price before you build around it.
The best bet
Flaressence, Eagle Farm Race 1, 1:43, 2.30 with Ladbrokes.
The case is consistency. Four runs in the last 90 days have produced a win and three placings, and she has hit the frame both times she has raced at Eagle Farm. The Gallopers Sports Club (Bm70) is a 1000m sprint on a Heavy track, and in a short race on wet ground the lightest weight in the field is a real edge. Barrier 2 lets Taylor Marshall choose where to sit.
The price is short, but this is the most reliable profile on any card today. The danger is Boss Mode for Tony Gollan, who won one of his two recent starts and placed in the other. Cejay Graham can roll forward from gate 4 on him, so if anything gets loose in front it is that one.
The value bet
Aristocratic Girl, Eagle Farm Race 2, 2:18, 11.00 with Ladbrokes.
Savannah Chill has been scratched at Bendigo, so the value spot moves to the Eagle Farm maiden. Aristocratic Girl has run at Eagle Farm twice and placed both times, and her form is a run of seconds and thirds. She keeps getting close, and in the Become A Brc Member Mdn Plate over 1200m a maiden that has already handled the track is worth more than double figures suggests.
Stellagracia is the danger. She ran second on her only start, and Ben Thompson and Tony Gollan have 15 wins and 33 placings from 50 rides together at this track, so the booking says the stable expects her to step forward. Buttercup, placed on her only start here with Michael Rodd riding, is the other one to beat. At the odds, Aristocratic Girl is the each-way play.
The quaddie angle
So You Are, Bendigo Race 8, 4:55.
The Bendigo Cup is the third leg of the Bendigo quaddie, and So You Are is the horse to stand on there. Three straight wins, three wins and a placing from four starts in the last 90 days, and $582,250 in prize money over that period. The next best in the field on that measure is Kings Valley on $313,000. Bjorn Baker has booked Rachel King, and the pair have 29 wins from 119 runs together.
Barrier 1 over 2400m means King can sit on the fence and wait. The weight is the question, since So You Are carries more than most of the field. See That Storm is the danger: placed in all three runs in the window with a win among them, Craig Williams riding, and coming in lighter. If the soft ground bites late, that is the one that runs on.
Use So You Are as a single in the third leg and spread elsewhere. There was no Cup market when this was written, so check the price before you play.
How these were picked
All three come from the full previews for Wednesday’s five meetings: Bendigo, Eagle Farm, Warwick Farm, Belmont Park and Murray Bridge. Where two horses were close, we went with the one that had a live price.
Prochester, the Eagle Farm NAP, has two wins from three recent starts and a course win, but his race had no market and he carries the weight. Love Story at Warwick Farm has had only two starts. Official Business and Star Martini at Belmont Park, and Immortal Spirit at Murray Bridge, all have solid recent form, but no bookmaker had priced any race at either meeting. So You Are gets the quaddie spot ahead of Weapon Clear, Bendigo’s other quaddie runner, because he brings four recent runs of form to Weapon Clear‘s one.