Hawkesbury Racing Tips Sept 10 — Is Hitch the Real Deal?
Bunbury Tips: Can Secretchino Back Up Its Win?
Overview
Secretchino strolled home last start, and that matters more than usual at a meeting where genuine course form is almost nowhere to be found. Only four runners across today’s 32-horse field can point to three or more starts at Bunbury, and both maidens on the card are stacked with horses yet to find their feet at any track. That scarcity of hard course evidence is exactly why the jockey books and recent form trajectories carry more weight than they normally would, and it’s where these Bunbury racing tips spend most of their time.
Three races make up the card this afternoon, all on turf, running from just before 2pm through to just after 3pm. The first two are maidens with big fields — ten and thirteen runners respectively — and the finale is a Class 1 handicap where the formlines finally start to mean something. What follows works through each race in order, leans on the strongest jockey and trainer numbers at the track, and lands on a clear top pick, a value runner and a placing option to close out the card.
Reading the Bunbury card
Course form worth noting is thin. Just four runners in the entire field carry three or more runs at Bunbury: Barney Rommel (three placings from three runs, including a win, for an average finish of 2.0), Secretchino (one placing from four), Flavoursome (also managed one placing from three) and Milly’s Clever Too (yet to place in three attempts here). Everyone else is working off one or two Bunbury runs at most — a data point rather than a form line, worth noting once rather than repeating through every race that follows.
The jockey and trainer numbers fill the gap. W Pike rides across all three races today, and the volume backs up the booking: 42 mounts at Bunbury for eight wins and 17 placings, a strike rate and a place rate that top every other rider with genuine numbers on this card. Two of those three rides come from Michael Grantham, and that partnership is worth knowing beyond this track too — 62 runs together everywhere, 22 wins, and a place in almost six runs out of every ten. Ryan Hill saddles three runners today, more than any other trainer on the card, but a single win from 35 runners at Bunbury says the volume hasn’t turned into much success at this particular circuit.
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucy Fiore | 66 | 12 | 32 | 18.18% | 48.48% |
| Holly Nottle | 45 | 5 | 19 | 11.11% | 42.22% |
| W Pike | 42 | 8 | 17 | 19.05% | 40.48% |
| B Parnham | 52 | 5 | 21 | 9.62% | 40.38% |
| Austin Galati | 21 | 4 | 8 | 19.05% | 38.10% |
| Jefferson Tsang | 27 | 2 | 10 | 7.41% | 37.04% |
| Natasha Faithfull | 43 | 4 | 13 | 9.30% | 30.23% |
| S Parnham | 28 | 6 | 8 | 21.43% | 28.57% |
On the trainer side, G & A Williams and Summer Dickson both convert more than half their Bunbury runners into placings, and Daniel O’Connor’s strike rate here — three winners from ten runners — is as sharp as any trainer on the card:
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G & A Williams | 18 | 5 | 10 | 27.78% | 55.56% |
| Summer Dickson | 13 | 3 | 7 | 23.08% | 53.85% |
| T Triscari | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0.00% | 50.00% |
| D R Harrison | 28 | 1 | 13 | 3.57% | 46.43% |
| Michael Grantham | 30 | 5 | 13 | 16.67% | 43.33% |
| Mitchell Pateman | 14 | 2 | 6 | 14.29% | 42.86% |
| Daniel O’Connor | 10 | 3 | 4 | 30.00% | 40.00% |
| T M Wolfe | 26 | 4 | 10 | 15.38% | 38.46% |
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Race by race
Race 1: Membership At The Bunbury Turf Club Mdn — 1:52PM, 1312m
Ten three-year-old maidens go around here and, honestly, none of them arrive with a genuine edge — but My Malena comes closest. Two runs, one placing (a close-up second) and a fourth last time out is modest, but it’s also placed on its only try at this track, and Lucy Fiore rides again today off comfortably the busiest and best-performed jockey book at Bunbury: 12 wins and 32 placings from 66 rides. Against ten largely unproven rivals, that combination is enough to make My Malena the one to beat.
Aura Magna looks the biggest threat to it. Its figures read 0-6-4-2, three genuinely improving runs capped by a minor placing last start, and Holly Nottle takes the ride off a strong record at the track — 42% of her Bunbury mounts finish in the placings from 45 rides. If that improvement holds, this is the type to run My Malena down late.
Royal Reflection is the interesting unknown: unraced, but from the Michael Grantham stable with W Pike engaged — the same pairing that turns up again with Boutique Belle later in the card, and one of the more productive combinations on the Western Australian circuit generally. A debutant carrying that kind of support is worth a thought even without a formline, though it’s not one to trust with real money first-up. My Malena each-way, with Aura Magna the one most likely to knock it off.
Race 2: Wa Stockfeeds Family Day At Bunbury Mdn — 2:27PM, 1832m
Michael Grantham doesn’t usually send Bunbury the same jockey twice in an afternoon without reason, and Boutique Belle is the second half of that booking after Royal Reflection earlier on the card. Unlike its debutant stablemate, this one already has form to back it up: runner-up at Belmont Park at $8/5 two runs back, before finishing fourth last time out. Grantham and Pike have combined for 22 wins from 62 runs everywhere they’ve raced together, a strike rate above one in three, and even here at Bunbury specifically they’ve managed two wins and four places from nine runs as a pair.
Flavoursome is the swing factor, even though its own recent figures (7-3-8-5-5-7) aren’t much to look at on their own. Daniel O’Connor trains at a 30% win rate from ten runners at this track, one of the strongest numbers on the entire card, and that trainer form is doing more of the heavy lifting here than the horse’s own formline. Chloe Azzopardi’s numbers at Bunbury are modest by comparison, but O’Connor’s record is hard to bet against.
Crazy Carrot and Momotaro both fit a similar shape — ordinary earlier runs followed by a clear step forward last start — and S Parnham partners Crazy Carrot off the second-best win rate of any jockey at the track with real volume, 21.43% from 28 rides. Worth including in exotics, but not the head of the market. Boutique Belle to win, with Flavoursome the each-way alternative if the market inflates the favourite.
Race 3: Redink Homes Melbourne Cup Day At Bunbury Hcp (C1) — 3:04PM, 1832m
Secretchino has been building to this. Four runs in the past three months have produced a win and two further placings — a 75% placing rate over that stretch — and the most recent of those starts was the win itself. Holly Nottle rides again today, and few jockeys with real volume at this track place more often than she does — 19 placings from her 45 Bunbury rides, second only to Lucy Fiore’s book. The one question mark is trainer A W Maley’s own record at this specific circuit, an 8% place rate from twelve runners, but that’s a stable-wide number set against a horse working through a formline of its own right now, and recent trajectory should carry more weight than one trainer’s long-run average at a single track.
The Scholar is the obvious route to beat it. It resumed with a competitive second before fading through 6-8-7-6, and S Parnham, the same in-form rider from Race 2, is back aboard — six winners from his 28 Bunbury rides, a rate only Lucy Fiore, Holly Nottle and W Pike better among the jockeys with genuine numbers here. If the resumption run was the true form and the fade since was just a horse needing the racing, this is the one that runs Secretchino down.
Barney Rommel is the each-way alternative for anyone wanting to hedge. Three placings from three career runs at Bunbury, including a win, for an average finishing position of 2.0 — about as good a small sample as this card offers — but the most recent line (an eighth) makes it hard to trust for the win itself. T M Wolfe trains at a healthy 38% place rate here from 26 runners, which supports the case for the placing without demanding you back it to beat Secretchino outright. Secretchino to win, Barney Rommel each-way if the odds hold up, and The Scholar the one to watch if it drifts in the market.
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Where the money goes
NAP: Secretchino (Race 3, 3:04pm). Four runs, one win and two more placings in the past three months, a trajectory pointing the right way, and a jockey who places two runners in every five she partners at this track. The strongest case on offer today for backing a horse to actually win.
Value: My Malena (Race 1, 1:52pm). Two runs, one placing, and Lucy Fiore aboard — no rider at Bunbury has ridden more winners or more placegetters than her. In a maiden with almost nothing else to separate the field, that combination is underpriced more often than not.
Banker: Boutique Belle (Race 2, 2:27pm) for the place. The Grantham-Pike partnership wins better than a third of the time everywhere it runs and places closer to six times in ten — as safe a piece of multi insurance as this card has to offer.
Each-way: Barney Rommel (Race 3, 3:04pm). Three from three for placings at this track across its career, even if the most recent line doesn’t inspire confidence in the win.
Course angle: W Pike, across all three races today, brings both the volume — 42 Bunbury rides — and the rate that nobody else on the jockey list can match, and two of his three rides today come from the in-form Grantham stable. If the Grantham yard keeps sending him this kind of support at Bunbury, he’s the rider worth following here every time that stable fields a team.
Frequently asked questions
What time does racing start at Bunbury today?
The first race, the Membership At The Bunbury Turf Club Mdn, jumps at 1:52pm. The three-race card wraps up with the Redink Homes Melbourne Cup Day At Bunbury Hcp at 3:04pm.
Who are the top trainers and jockeys at Bunbury today?
G & A Williams leads the trainer numbers with a 55.56% place rate from 18 Bunbury runners, with Summer Dickson close behind at 53.85% from 13. Among jockeys, Lucy Fiore has the deepest and best book at the track — 12 wins and 32 placings from 66 rides — while W Pike carries the best strike rate of anyone riding today at 19.05% from 42 mounts.
What are the best bets at Bunbury today?
Secretchino in Race 3 is the standout on recent form, backing up a win with Holly Nottle aboard again. My Malena in Race 1 offers value behind the meeting’s best-performed jockey, and Boutique Belle in Race 2 carries the strongest jockey-trainer partnership numbers on the card for anyone looking to bank a place.
Where can I find the best odds for Bunbury races?
Bookmaker odds for this meeting weren’t locked in yet at the time of writing, so check prices with a licensed bookmaker closer to each race before betting.
How many runners make up today’s Bunbury card?
32 runners across three races, with the Wa Stockfeeds Family Day At Bunbury Mdn the largest field at 13 runners and the opening maiden not far behind at 10.
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