Lismore Racing Tips Sep 25: Jade Trees for Three?
Fannie Bay Racing Tips 25 Sep — Can Clarke Strike Twice?
Overview
G Clarke does not book J R Todd for the scenery. The pair have combined 99 times at Fannie Bay for 21 wins and a placing in nearly half their runs together, and today G Clarke lines Todd up on two of the stable’s three runners on this short card. Pafitis gets the ride in the Mitcon Projects Handicap, Mr Marrakech in the Pointsbet Handicap, and both were runner up in their most recent starts. That is the kind of repeat booking worth building a Fannie Bay racing tips read around.
Three races only this afternoon, all on the sand, and a card that rewards knowing who has actually performed here rather than who looks good on paper. Philip Cole has the biggest team on the day with five runners spread across all three races, but Cole’s numbers at this circuit are the softest of any trainer with a genuine sample. Read on for the pick in each race, the numbers behind them, and where the value sits.
Reading the Fannie Bay card
Sand tracks reward specialists, and this meeting has a handful of horses with real runs on the board here. G Clarke’s team carries the most convincing course numbers of the day, 181 runs for 31 wins and a 40.33% place rate, while MS T Halter and Chris Nash both sit above 45% for getting their runners into the placings at this track. Philip Cole is the volume play, five runners today, but only eight winners from 168 runs (4.76%) tells its own story. Presence does not equal profile here.
Split the card three ways and the shape is clear enough. The maiden opener is short on established form, the middle handicap is where the in-form runners and the biggest course numbers collide, and the last is a more straightforward read built around one horse whose profile barely changes from run to run. Three sand-track sprints and middle-distance races rather than a card built for a single running style, which is part of why the trainer and jockey numbers below matter more than usual today.
| Horse | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predicting | 9 | 2 | 3 | 22.22% | 33.33% |
| If I Was You | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20.00% | 40.00% |
| Meet Me At The Bar | 6 | 1 | 3 | 16.67% | 50.00% |
| Funnyifitwon | 6 | 1 | 2 | 16.67% | 33.33% |
| Pafitis | 7 | 1 | 3 | 14.29% | 42.86% |
| Sassy Abbey | 10 | 1 | 3 | 10.00% | 30.00% |
| Galaxy General | 10 | 1 | 2 | 10.00% | 20.00% |
| Time To Baca | 8 | 0 | 4 | 0.00% | 50.00% |
| Jockey | Rides | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J R Todd | 129 | 29 | 57 | 22.48% | 44.19% |
| Billy Cray | 44 | 5 | 18 | 11.36% | 40.91% |
| S Tsaikos | 55 | 8 | 19 | 14.55% | 34.55% |
| Dakota-Lee Gillett | 69 | 9 | 21 | 13.04% | 30.43% |
| Jessica Booth | 57 | 7 | 17 | 12.28% | 29.82% |
| D A Hirini | 29 | 3 | 8 | 10.34% | 27.59% |
| MS V Arnott | 52 | 3 | 13 | 5.77% | 25.00% |
| W R Davis | 112 | 4 | 24 | 3.57% | 21.43% |
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MS T Halter | 63 | 13 | 29 | 20.63% | 46.03% |
| Chris Nash | 44 | 8 | 20 | 18.18% | 45.45% |
| G Clarke | 181 | 31 | 73 | 17.13% | 40.33% |
| Tommy Logan | 79 | 10 | 31 | 12.66% | 39.24% |
| Chloe Baxter | 90 | 16 | 34 | 17.78% | 37.78% |
| Jason Manning | 46 | 4 | 13 | 8.70% | 28.26% |
| Rhonda Cole | 27 | 0 | 7 | 0.00% | 25.93% |
| Philip Cole | 168 | 8 | 38 | 4.76% | 22.62% |
| Chris Pollard | 70 | 3 | 6 | 4.29% | 8.57% |
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Race by race
Race 1: NT News Trobis Mdn Plate — 1:35pm, 1203m
Does anyone in this maiden field know how to win at Fannie Bay yet? Not on the numbers. None of the six runners has managed a win at this track, so the read comes down to who is closest to breaking through rather than who already has. Lady Fireball holds the best recent average finish of the group at 3.3 from the last three runs, and the course form of three straight placings before a flat run last time backs that trend up. Milk Foam has had more looks at this circuit, five runs, without landing one, and Zoutara snuck a place from the only two starts there.
Weight is roughly level across the field, so barriers and gate speed do more of the work than the scale in a maiden this open. Lady Fireball draws barrier three and has shown enough tactical speed to sit handy, while Milk Foam comes from barrier one and will need to either lead or find cover early over 1203m. Neither profile screams winner, which is the honest position to take into a race like this.
Hard to have a confident view. If forced, Lady Fireball on the strength of that recent trend, with Milk Foam the one to note if the finishing kick sharpens up from here. Watch race, small each-way only.
Race 2: Mitcon Projects Hcp (58) — 2:10pm, 1094m
Predicting brings the runs on the board; Gunnie Gunfighter brings the sharper trend, and this handicap comes down to which matters more. Predicting has raced at Fannie Bay nine times for two wins and three places, genuine course form by any measure, and comes into this in form: two wins from the last four starts and an average finish of 3.5 across that stretch. Trainer MS T Halter is one of the better operators at this circuit too, 20.63% winners from 63 runners. In-form and course-proven is hard to leave out of calculations.
Gunnie Gunfighter has no runs recorded at Fannie Bay, so there is nothing on that side of the ledger, but the recent trend might be the best in the race. Four runs have produced a win, three places and an average finish of 1.75, which says this one rarely runs a bad race right now. Both carry the top weight of 133.3kg, so that part of the equation cancels out, though Predicting’s draw of four looks the more workable of the two compared with Gunnie Gunfighter out from barrier six over 1094m. Billy Cray, on board Gunnie Gunfighter today, has struck at 11.36% from rides at this track.
Then there is the stable angle. G Clarke sends Pafitis around with J R Todd up, the pairing that has combined for 99 runs at Fannie Bay, 21 wins and a place rate above 45%. Pafitis was runner up last start here for this exact combination, so the runner cannot be dismissed either.
Predicting gets the vote as the more rounded package, course form and recent form pointing the same way. Win bet, with Gunnie Gunfighter the each-way danger if the home straight suits a strong finisher.
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18+ T&C’s Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
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Race 3: Pointsbet Hcp (64) — 2:45pm, 1422m
If I Was You is the leading contender in the last on this card. Chloe Baxter’s runner has raced at Fannie Bay five times for an average finish of 2.8, almost identical to the recent record away from the track, also 2.8 from five runs, which says the form travels rather than depending on the circuit. Two seconds and a third from the last three starts back that up, and the step out to 1422m should suit a runner racing on for the placings rather than sprinting home. If I Was You carries 130kg from barrier one, a workable draw that lets Billy Cray follow the speed into the race rather than get caught wide.
The danger comes from the same stable that produced a placing earlier on the card. G Clarke’s Mr Marrakech gets J R Todd again, the pair that ran second together at this track on August 29, and Mr Marrakech has placed in a third of the starts here. Brazen Bon is the other one worth a mention, four placings from five runs at Fannie Bay, though the recent form away from here has been quieter.
If I Was You for the win, with Mr Marrakech the each-way alternative if connections are sending this one back with intent.
The plays
Predicting is the best bet of the day. Nine runs at Fannie Bay have produced two wins and three places, with two wins from the last four starts anywhere, the kind of overlapping course and recent form that makes for a genuine top pick in the Mitcon Projects Handicap.
Value sits with the main rival in the same race. Gunnie Gunfighter has never started at Fannie Bay, which may keep the price generous, but has barely missed a placing anywhere else this campaign.
If I Was You is the banker for multis, rarely finishing far off the top two whether the run is at this track or somewhere else, which is exactly the kind of dependability a multi needs.
Lady Fireball is the each-way play, the best recent average finish in a maiden field that has not produced a winner among any of today’s six runners.
The course angle worth following is G Clarke and J R Todd. Ninety-nine runs together at Fannie Bay have produced 21 wins and a placing in almost half their combined starts, and the pair are on the board twice today. If Clarke keeps sending them out for Todd at this rate, it is worth tracking every time the two line up together.
Best Bookmakers for Today’s Racing
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FAQ
What time does racing start at Fannie Bay today?
The first race, the NT News Trobis Maiden Plate, jumps at 1:35pm, with the Mitcon Projects Handicap at 2:10pm and the Pointsbet Handicap closing the three-race card at 2:45pm.
Who are the top trainers and jockeys at Fannie Bay today?
MS T Halter leads the trainers on place rate, 46.03% from 63 runners at the track, with Chris Nash close behind at 45.45% and G Clarke third at 40.33% from a much bigger sample of 181 runs. J R Todd is the standout jockey, a 22.48% win rate and a 44.19% place rate from 129 rides here.
What are the best bets at Fannie Bay today?
Predicting is the pick of the day in the Mitcon Projects Handicap off two wins from the last four starts and a genuine course record of two wins and three places from nine runs. If I Was You offers the steadiest each-way cover in the final race.
Where can I find the best odds for Fannie Bay races?
Live odds for this meeting were not available at the time of writing. Check the bookmaker offers below closer to race time for the best market on each race.
Which stable is worth watching at Fannie Bay today?
G Clarke, who lines up three runners including two for J R Todd, a combination that has produced 21 wins from 99 runs together at this track.
