Lismore Racing Tips Sept 10 — Poseidon's Son Repeat?
Hawkesbury Racing Tips Sept 10 — Is Hitch the Real Deal?
Overview
Hitch has strung together a placing, another placing and then a win across his last three runs, and that kind of trajectory is exactly what makes a Saturday card worth digging into. Hawkesbury racing tips for September 10 cover five races on the turf, and while the placings look ordinary on paper – a handicap, a benchmark, a maiden handicap and two maiden plates – there is enough live form and enough stable intent scattered through the fields to build a genuine case in most of them. Two maidens carry sixteen and fourteen runners respectively, which is where trainer and jockey course numbers do more work than the form guide ever could. Here is how the card breaks down, leg by leg.
Reading the Hawkesbury card
Building reliable Hawkesbury racing tips starts here, with who actually performs at this track rather than who looks good on paper. Course form is thin across most of today’s fields – the bulk of runners have started at Hawkesbury once or not at all – but three horses clear the bar for a meaningful sample. Binkou has been the model of consistency in three visits, winning once and placing in the other two. Derry City Felix has one placing from three runs here, and Lucky Monkey has drawn a blank in three attempts, which is as much a warning as a stat.
| Horse | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Binkou | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33.33% | 66.67% |
| Derry City Felix | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.00% | 33.33% |
| Lucky Monkey | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
The jockeys’ room tells a clearer story. J R Collett places two out of every three rides he has at Hawkesbury, and Tom Sherry and Mollie Fitzgerald aren’t far behind. Rachel King and Zac Lloyd both ride winners here at a rate most jockeys would take all day, and both have live chances on the card.
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J R Collett | 15 | 3 | 10 | 20.00% | 66.67% |
| Tom Sherry | 25 | 3 | 15 | 12.00% | 60.00% |
| Mollie Fitzgerald | 25 | 3 | 14 | 12.00% | 56.00% |
| Zac Lloyd | 21 | 4 | 11 | 19.05% | 52.38% |
| A B Collett | 39 | 5 | 19 | 12.82% | 48.72% |
| Rachel King | 31 | 5 | 15 | 16.13% | 48.39% |
| K S Latham | 38 | 3 | 16 | 7.89% | 42.11% |
| C Schofield | 36 | 5 | 15 | 13.89% | 41.67% |
On the training side, J & G Lee and Edward O’Rourke sit at the top of the place-rate table, though both work off small sample sizes. C J Waller doesn’t appear near the top by percentage, but his volume tells its own story – 64 runners at Hawkesbury for 11 wins and 27 places is a track he clearly targets, and he has two runners on today’s card.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J & G Lee | 7 | 2 | 5 | 28.57% | 71.43% |
| Edward O’Rourke | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33.33% | 66.67% |
| MS K Gavenlock | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20.00% | 60.00% |
| Nathan Doyle | 12 | 3 | 7 | 25.00% | 58.33% |
| Bjorn Baker | 33 | 4 | 18 | 12.12% | 54.55% |
| Peter Snowden | 16 | 4 | 8 | 25.00% | 50.00% |
| Marc Chevalier | 10 | 2 | 5 | 20.00% | 50.00% |
| Michael Freedman | 14 | 0 | 7 | 0.00% | 50.00% |
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18+ T&C’s Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
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Race by race
Race 1: Hawkesbury Ladies Day 7 November Hcp (C1) – 1:00PM, 1750m
Hitch has been building to this. Three runs, three top-three finishes, and the most recent of them a win, for an average finishing position of 2.0 across that run. He hasn’t raced at Hawkesbury before, so there is no course figure to lean on, but the improving pattern is the story here, and at 124.5kg he carries 4.4kg less than topweight Philatelic. Trainer Michael Freedman has fired fourteen runners at this track without a winner, though seven of them have placed, so his stable clearly gets them fit enough to be competitive here even without breaking through. R Hutchings has ridden here eight times for one win and one placing, which isn’t much to go on, but he doesn’t need to do anything special from the gate Hitch has drawn.
Philatelic is the one who can beat him. He placed on his only previous start at Hawkesbury, and across his last three runs everywhere he has placed in all three for an average finish of 2.67 – genuinely consistent, if not yet a winner. Trainer Richard Litt wins with almost a quarter of his Hawkesbury runners and places with almost forty percent of them, and Zac Lloyd rides here at a place rate above fifty percent. The extra 4.4kg on his back against a rival with real early-season momentum is the difference for me. Costabit and Derry City Felix both have question marks – Derry City Felix has managed only one placing in three runs at the track, which is not a form line to get excited about.
Back Hitch to win, with Philatelic as the each-way alternative if you want cover.
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Race 2: Brad Widdup Racing (Bm64) – 1:35PM, 2187m
Two very different profiles line up for the money here. Binkou has never finished out of the money at Hawkesbury – a win and two placings from three visits – and while three runs is a data point rather than a track specialism, it is a genuinely strong one for a horse stepping out at the trip again. His last four runs anywhere have produced a win and two more placings. Green Pineapple, on the other hand, is in the better recent form on raw numbers – a win and three placings from his last five starts, a 60% place rate with an average finish of 3.4 – but he is unraced at this track, so his profile is national form rather than local knowledge.
Neither trainer nor rider combination screams value: G L Frazer has a modest record at Hawkesbury and G Buckley’s numbers here are unremarkable, while Green Pineapple’s stable, MS G Williams, has only managed one placing from four runners at the track. This is a swing race over an unusually long trip for a Bm64, and stamina at 2187m matters as much as recent sharpness. Binkou’s proven affinity for the circuit gets the vote for a win bet, with Green Pineapple the each-way danger if the speed gets tested late.
Race 3: Group One Thoroughbreds Provincial Mdn Hcp – 2:10PM, 1640m
Tyler Schiller doesn’t need reminding who rides winners at Hawkesbury – seven from forty-four rides here, with places in almost forty percent of them, makes him as close to a leading jockey as this card has. He is aboard Navy Slippers today, teaming up with Marc Chevalier, who wins with a fifth of his Hawkesbury runners and places with half of them. Navy Slippers himself has only the one run at the track to show, without a placing, and he hasn’t had a run inside our ninety-day form window, so this is a case built on the booking and the stable rather than the horse’s own recent line. When a leading local rider and a trainer with genuine course numbers combine on a lightly-raced type dropping into a maiden handicap, it is worth respecting.
Comanche Chief is the one with the cleaner formline – placed in both his runs to date, finishing third on average – but he carries topweight at 130kg and his trainer, Fabio Martino, has managed only one win from eleven runners at this track. Power Broker is the other each-way thought, with his stable landing a winner and two placings from three runners here. This looks a race where the jockey booking is the strongest single piece of information on offer. Each-way on Navy Slippers, with Comanche Chief the each-way cover if the weight doesn’t bite.
Race 4: Clarendon Tavern Mdn Plate – 2:50PM, 1203m
How do you assess a fourteen-horse maiden where half the field has never started? Honestly, you lean on the stables. Fiaba is a first starter for C J Waller, who wins with better than one in six of his Hawkesbury runners and places with better than four in ten across sixty-four runners at the track – the deepest and most consistent trainer sample on the entire card – and Zac Lloyd, already doing solid work in Race 1, takes the ride. Pailleron is the other new face worth noting, from the Bjorn Baker stable, which places better than half its Hawkesbury runners, with Rachel King, one of the better strike-rate riders at the track, in the saddle.
Beyond The Reef has the only genuine formline in the field – a third-place finish from his sole start – for a stable, J G Sargent’s, that wins with more than a quarter of its Hawkesbury runners. This is a watch race as much as a betting one. If forced, split a small each-way stake between Fiaba and Pailleron on the strength of their connections, and note Beyond The Reef as the swooper if the debutants find the occasion too much.
Race 5: Hawkesbury Race Club Motel Mdn Plate – 3:25PM, 1203m
Slander and Hellfire Henry make an interesting contrast in a sixteen-horse field that is otherwise hard to split. Slander is unraced at the track and has had no runs inside our ninety-day window, but he placed on his only start, and the numbers around him are hard to ignore: trainer Nathan Doyle wins with a quarter of his Hawkesbury runners and places with better than half of them, and Ashley Morgan, aboard today, rides here at close to a 35% place rate from twenty-six mounts. Hellfire Henry has actually raced three times, finishing sixth, then third, then second – a genuine improving pattern – but his connections are much thinner on the ground, with trainer J M Austin yet to record a Hawkesbury winner from five runners and jockey Louise Day sitting on a modest place rate here.
Maccbi is the each-way watch behind them – his own card shows five placings from his last five runs, and his stable, J & G Lee, places better than seven in ten of its Hawkesbury runners, the best rate of any trainer on the card. In a maiden this deep, backing the stable and the rider matters more than backing the formline alone. Each-way on Slander, with Hellfire Henry the each-way alternative for those who prefer the improving profile over the connections.
Where the money goes
These Hawkesbury racing tips lean hardest on one horse. Hitch is the NAP. He hasn’t finished worse than third in his last three runs and got his head in front last time out, a workable weight against the field’s topweight, and a trajectory that points straight up – if one horse on this card is building to a win today, it’s him. The value sits with Navy Slippers in Race 3: a lightly-raced type getting the leading local rider for the first time at the course, in a maiden handicap where that kind of booking usually means something. For multis, Binkou is the banker – a win and two placings from three visits to this track is as safe a place proposition as the card offers. The each-way play is Maccbi, whose stable places at the highest rate of any trainer at Hawkesbury today and whose own card is a string of minor placings. The repeatable angle is C J Waller: sixty-four runners at this track for eleven wins and twenty-seven places is a trainer worth following at Hawkesbury every time he sends a team, and he has two runners doing exactly that today. If Waller keeps producing numbers like that at this circuit, he’ll be the standing Hawkesbury angle race meeting after race meeting.
FAQ
What time does racing start at Hawkesbury today?
The first race, the Hawkesbury Ladies Day 7 November Hcp (C1), jumps at 1:00PM, with five races completing the card through to the 3:25PM Hawkesbury Race Club Motel Mdn Plate.
Who are the top trainers and jockeys at Hawkesbury?
On today’s numbers, J & G Lee places better than seven in ten Hawkesbury runners and Edward O’Rourke wins a third of his starts here, while J R Collett leads the jockeys’ room with a 66.67% place rate from fifteen rides. C J Waller carries the biggest sample on the card – sixty-four runners for eleven wins and twenty-seven places.
What are the best bets at Hawkesbury today?
Hitch in Race 1 is the pick of the card, unbeaten for minor placings or better across his last three starts and a winner last time out, with Navy Slippers in Race 3 the value play on the back of Tyler Schiller’s booking – he places at almost 39% from forty-four Hawkesbury rides.
Where can I find the best odds for Hawkesbury races?
Odds weren’t populated across the board at the time of writing, so compare prices with your bookmaker closer to each race before backing any of today’s Hawkesbury predictions.
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