Overview
Nicolosi won its latest start for G Waterhouse and A Bott, and on Saturday it comes to Illawarra Grange for a Class 1 with C Reith, who has won on two of his four rides at the track. That combination, a horse on the way up and a rider who has made the most of his chances here, is the angle we like best on the card.
It is not a one horse story, though. Seven of the eight races are maidens or Class 1 events, and a few of them look wide open. C J Waller has nine runners spread across the card, the Mitchell Beer and George Carpenter stable has won four races from 15 starters here, and K S Latham has placed on half of his 12 rides at the course.
These Illawarra Grange racing tips cover all eight races on a Good track, from the 1300m maiden at 1:30PM through to the Class 1 sprint at 5:45PM. Course form is thin, so expect the reasoning to lean on recent runs, stables and riders. Bookmaker markets were not open when this was written, so no prices are quoted.
Reading the Illawarra Grange card
Limited course form across today’s fields: only one runner has been here three times, and most have one start or none at the track. The riding and training numbers carry more weight.
K S Latham stands out among the jockeys, with three wins and six placings from 12 rides. Jean Van Overmeire has had the most rides here of anyone at the meeting, 18 of them, for two wins.
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K S Latham | 12 | 3 | 6 | 25.0 | 50.0 |
| R Hutchings | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 40.0 |
| Mitchell Bell | 9 | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 33.3 |
| L Magorrian | 8 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | 25.0 |
| G Buckley | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 25.0 |
| S Guymer | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 25.0 |
| Jean Van Overmeire | 18 | 2 | 4 | 11.1 | 22.2 |
Among the trainers, C J Waller has the most runners here, 21 for four wins and ten placings. Brad Widdup has placed seven of his 12, and the Annabel Neasham and Rob Archibald stable six of its ten.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John O’Shea & Tom Charlton | 3 | 2 | 3 | 66.7 | 100.0 |
| Edward Cummings | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33.3 | 66.7 |
| Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald | 10 | 2 | 6 | 20.0 | 60.0 |
| Brad Widdup | 12 | 3 | 7 | 25.0 | 58.3 |
| C J Waller | 21 | 4 | 10 | 19.0 | 47.6 |
| Mitchell Beer & George Carpenter | 15 | 4 | 7 | 26.7 | 46.7 |
| G Waterhouse & A Bott | 11 | 2 | 5 | 18.2 | 45.5 |
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Illawarra Grange racing tips: race by race
Race 1: The Gong Ambassador Mikayla Chilby Mdn Hcp, 1:30PM, 1300m
Machrihanish has placed in all four of its runs over the past 90 days without winning, and its form line of 9-2-3-3-2 says it is knocking on the door. It draws the inside gate under S Guymer at 56kg. One caution: it is also entered in Race 4, so check the scratchings before you bet.
The danger comes from the Mitchell Beer and George Carpenter stable. Cumulate has a 3-4-3-3-2 form line and Jean Van Overmeire rides. C J Waller starts two unraced horses in Jabal Shada and Lady Resolute, and the market will tell you more about those than the form can. Machrihanish to win if it stays in this race, with Cumulate as the saver.
Race 2: Illawarra Production Services Mdn Hcp, 2:05PM, 1300m
Two starts, two seconds, and $26,050 in prize money. Rain Delay has run into one better each time, and Michael Freedman will have it ready to put that right. Jean Van Overmeire has the ride at 59kg, the top weight, but a horse that keeps finishing second in maidens is usually the safest place to start.
Threesome has the most prize money in the race, $37,650 from three runs over the past 90 days, and its form line finishes with a 1. K S Latham rides for Peter Snowden. Gerroa, a C J Waller runner, placed on its only recent run. Rain Delay to win.
Race 3: The Gong Ambassador Daniel Grida Midway Mdn Plate, 2:40PM, 1150m
Does Chumpakidd ever turn its placings into a win? Three placings from four runs over the past 90 days is a good profile for a maiden plate. It also gets the lightest weight in the race, 56kg, with Leeshelle Small aboard from barrier three.
The Mitchell Beer and George Carpenter stable has two runners. Veranders placed on its only start and gets Jean Van Overmeire, and Ponzi Scheme was third last time. Kaihalulu Beach also placed on its only run. Chumpakidd each-way, with Veranders the danger.
Race 4: Izzy’s Gift Super Mdn Hcp, 3:15PM, 1450m
The John O’Shea and Tom Charlton stable has had three runners here, won with two and placed with the third. Scoop The Pool carries those colours, has placed in five of its last six with a second last time, and K S Latham rides. The top weight of 59kg is the price of being the best credentialed horse in a weak maiden.
If Machrihanish runs here instead of Race 1, it gets in at 55.5kg and becomes the danger. C J Waller has four runners, and Snitzel’s Girl has the best record of them with $27,350 earned over the past 90 days but only one placing from five runs. Scoop The Pool to win, Machrihanish the saver.
Race 5: The Gong Ambassador Tommy Berry Hcp (C1), 3:50PM, 1450m
Coco Dior has the steadiest form in the race: a win and two placings from four runs over the past 90 days, $29,850 earned, and a second last start. It draws barrier one at 55.5kg, which should give Jean Van Overmeire the run of the race from the inside.
Strike A Pose is the danger. It won its only run over the past 90 days and comes in with $20,550 from that, for C Maher and Louise Day. Stunning Future won last time too. Chappy, the Waller runner, has the top weight and was fourth last start. Coco Dior to win.
Race 6: Your Next Stop Wests Illawarra Provincial (Bm64), 4:30PM, 1400m
Cap d’Ail has the best form in the race by some distance: two wins and four placings from six runs over the past 90 days, and $60,700 earned. The catch is the weight and the draw. It carries 61kg, three more than anything else, from barrier 12.
That is a lot to ask, and it opens the door for Tequisoda. It won on its only visit to the track, was second last start, and draws barrier one for Brad Widdup, who places with more than half of his runners here. Bang On Time has placed in both of its runs at the course and is a decent each-way chance at 56kg. Cap d’Ail to win, but keep the stake small given the weight, and back Tequisoda as the saver.
Race 7: Ruth Crouch Diamond Jubilee Hcp (C1), 5:09PM, 1200m
Nicolosi has form figures of 8-2-1, a win and a second from two runs over the past 90 days, and it comes from the G Waterhouse and A Bott stable that has placed five of its 11 runners at this course. C Reith rides at 58kg. He has won on two of his four rides here.
The improvement is the reason to back it. Each run has been better than the last, and a Class 1 over 1200m on a Good track looks the right race to keep that going.
Wild Courage is the danger. It also won last time, has $30,700 from two recent runs and gets Jean Van Overmeire for C Maher. Absolutist won last start and carries only 52kg with Matt Kirk. Nicolosi to win, with Wild Courage in the exacta.
Race 8: The Gong Striker Sam Goodman Hcp (C1), 5:45PM, 1200m
Time To Dance and The Force Awakens both won last start. One carries 59kg, the other 52kg.
Time To Dance is the pick. It won its only run over the past 90 days for $20,550, and R Hutchings rides for Bryce Heys from barrier seven. The Force Awakens is the value. It also won last start, has the inside of the weights with Leeshelle Small, and draws barrier two.
Portico has won here before, was third last time and has two placings from three recent runs. Good’n’you was second last time for Ryan and Alexiou. Time To Dance to win, with a small each-way bet on The Force Awakens.
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18+ T&C’s Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
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Where the money goes
NAP: Nicolosi (Race 7, 5:09PM). Better each run, a win last time, and a rider who has made the most of his rides here.
Value: The Force Awakens (Race 8, 5:45PM). A last start winner with 52kg in a Class 1 sprint. The weight gives it a big advantage over the top weights.
Banker: Rain Delay (Race 2, 2:05PM). Two starts, two seconds. A maiden that has run into one good horse each time is the right type for multis.
Each-way: Chumpakidd (Race 3, 2:40PM). Three placings from four recent runs and the lightest weight in the race.
Course angle: K S Latham. He has placed on half of his 12 rides here, and today he rides Scoop The Pool, Threesome and Firepop among others.
If the Beer and Carpenter stable keeps winning at this rate, its runners will be the first ones to look at on every Illawarra Grange card.
FAQ
What time does racing start at Illawarra Grange today?
Race 1, The Gong Ambassador Mikayla Chilby Mdn Hcp over 1300m, jumps at 1:30PM local time. The last race, The Gong Striker Sam Goodman Hcp (C1) over 1200m, is at 5:45PM.
Who are the top jockeys and trainers at Illawarra Grange?
K S Latham leads today’s riders at the course with three wins and six placings from 12 rides. C J Waller has the most runners here among the trainers, with four winners from 21, and the Mitchell Beer and George Carpenter stable has won with four of its 15.
What are the best bets at Illawarra Grange today?
Nicolosi in Race 7 is the NAP. Rain Delay in Race 2 is the banker, The Force Awakens in Race 8 is the value play, and Chumpakidd in Race 3 is the each-way bet.
Where can I find the best odds for Illawarra Grange races?
Markets were not open when these Illawarra Grange predictions were written. Use the bookmaker table above and each race’s racecard on Racingbase to compare Illawarra Grange odds once betting opens.