Rosehill Racing Tips Sept 12: Can Foire De Trone Repeat?
Kembla Grange Racing Tips: Will Cap d’Ail Finally Win?
Overview
Cap d’Ail has been to Kembla Grange three times and come away with three placings and zero wins, which is either the most frustrating record on the card or the most reliable one, depending on how you like your bets. These Kembla Grange racing tips lean on that record rather than around it: a two-race Saturday card on the turf, headlined by a maiden handicap where the top-weight keeps knocking on the door. There’s also a jockey who rides twice today and has the best strike rate at the track of anyone in the market. Both races are maiden-grade, which usually means thin form and guesswork, but the course stats do a lot of the heavy lifting here once you know where to look. Read on for the full breakdown of both races, the numbers behind today’s key runners, and where the money should go.
Reading the Kembla Grange card
Two maiden-grade races make up the meeting, a Mdn Plate over 1750m and a Mdn Hcp over 1531m, both on turf. Course form is genuinely useful here rather than decorative: three horses arrive with three or more runs at the track, and their records point in different directions. That’s the base these Kembla Grange racing tips are built on before a single race is analysed in detail.
| Horse | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cap d’Ail | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| Creator Of World | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 66.7% |
| Powerful Majik | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
Everyone else on the card has one or two starts here at most, which isn’t enough to draw conclusions from, so the bigger signal today comes from the jockeys and trainers riding and training regularly at Kembla Grange.
| Jockey | Rides | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K S Latham | 68 | 13 | 36 | 19.1% | 52.9% |
| J Ford | 20 | 1 | 9 | 5.0% | 45.0% |
| Mitchell Bell | 60 | 9 | 23 | 15.0% | 38.3% |
| C Lever | 48 | 7 | 18 | 14.6% | 37.5% |
| A Layt | 8 | 1 | 3 | 12.5% | 37.5% |
| S Clipperton | 9 | 1 | 3 | 11.1% | 33.3% |
K S Latham rides two today, Legaselli in the opener and Mayleigh in race two, and no other jockey on the card touches his numbers. He wins one ride in five here and hits the frame better than half the time from a genuine 68-ride sample, which is the kind of edge worth following rather than fading.
| Trainer | Runners | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Payne | 9 | 2 | 6 | 22.2% | 66.7% |
| John O’Shea & Tom Charlton | 21 | 5 | 11 | 23.8% | 52.4% |
| G Waterhouse & A Bott | 27 | 6 | 13 | 22.2% | 48.1% |
| J G Sargent | 17 | 2 | 8 | 11.8% | 47.1% |
| Craig Carmody | 7 | 1 | 3 | 14.3% | 42.9% |
| G Portelli | 32 | 2 | 12 | 6.3% | 37.5% |
David Payne places two-thirds of his runners at Kembla Grange from a real sample of nine, the best conversion rate of any trainer on today’s card, even though his only representative here today is a maiden with modest form on paper.
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Race by race
Race 1: God Bless Venezuela Mdn Plate — 12:45, 1750m
Ten line up in the opener over the 1750m and most of them are guessing at this distance, but Legaselli has already shown it handles Kembla Grange, placing on its only start at the track. Recent form is thin, just two runs inside the last 90 days for one placing, so this isn’t a horse loaded with claims from the form line alone. What tips the scale is K S Latham in the saddle, the standout rider at this track today, and John Thompson’s yard has been solid enough here too, placing 39% of its runners from a 28-run sample.
The danger is Grafology, who steps out for David Payne, whose trainer numbers at Kembla Grange are the best on the card. The horse’s own form line reads modestly, one run here and one elsewhere in the last three months without hitting the frame, but a stable this effective at the track deserves respect regardless of what the horse has shown so far. Over The Mountain is another to note for the O’Shea and Charlton stable, though it’s worth being straight about this one: Mitchell Bell has ridden for that yard three times without a placing, twice on this very horse at this very track, so the fashionable jockey-trainer combination hasn’t actually produced anything yet.
Further back in the market, Touching Hans gets some benefit of the doubt purely through Matthew Smith’s volume at the track, a trainer with 61 runs here and a place rate near 30%, even though the horse itself has only managed a single run at Kembla Grange without hitting the frame. Powerful Majik has been to the track four times without a placing, which is genuine course form and none of it flattering, so it’s hard to include at any price. Van Hoven and Nambi Ghima are both first or second-up types without enough of a public form line to build a case either way, and Viva Viva’s recent figures are the weakest on paper. Gosh Almighty has managed a placing from two runs at the track for G Portelli, a trainer who converts almost 38% of his runners here, which at least makes it a workable roughie in wider multiples.
Backing Legaselli for the win makes sense on the strength of the jockey booking and the course experience; treat Grafology as the each-way roughie if the market drifts it out.
Race 2: Cedar Cutters Mdn Hcp — 13:19, 1531m
Does Cap d’Ail finally break through? Three runs at Kembla Grange, three placings, not a win among them, and the same story holds over the last 90 days: two runs, two places, an average finishing position of 2.5. That’s about as consistent as a maiden gets without actually winning, and it’s carrying the top weight in this field at 132.2kg, which tells you the handicapper already rates it above this grade. J Grisedale’s book at the track is unremarkable, so this is a horse and stable story more than a jockey one, and MS D Poidevin-Laine has two runners across the card today, which at least says the stable rates its team here.
Creator Of World is the genuine danger and arguably the value in the race. Three runs at Kembla Grange have produced two placings, and the wider 90-day sample of five runs shows three placings at an average finishing spot just outside the frame. C Lever rides it, and Lever’s numbers at this track are real, seven wins and eighteen places from 48 rides, comfortably the busiest and most productive jockey on the card after Latham. If the speed in this race is honest, Creator Of World’s sit-and-sprint profile suits it better than most, and there’s an argument this is the better bet than the favourite once weight is factored in.
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18+ T&C’s Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
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Mayleigh is worth a mention purely because K S Latham partners it after riding Legaselli in race one, and Latham’s trainer here, J G Sargent, places almost half his runners at the track. The horse’s own form is moderate, so this reads as a watch rather than a bet unless the price is generous. Cold Mist and Final Spirit have both had a run at Kembla Grange without troubling the placegetters, and neither trainer, Paul Murray or MS T Bateup, shows enough at the track to change that view. Craig Carmody’s My Star is interesting on connections alone, since Carmody places almost 43% of his runners here from a small but workable sample, though the horse itself managed only sixth on its lone visit to the track. Unleash Harry, Zousari, Xena’s Conquest, Alideel and Stock Road round out the field without course form or a standout stable angle to lean on, and are best treated as roughies rather than serious win chances. The most sensible staking here is a win bet on Cap d’Ail with Creator Of World taken as a saver, either on top or in an exacta.
Where the money goes
Boiling these Kembla Grange racing tips down to a final card: the best bet of the day is Cap d’Ail in race two. Three from three on the placings ledger at this specific track, backed up by the same pattern in its recent runs, and dropped into a race where its rivals simply don’t carry the same weight of course evidence.
Value sits with Creator Of World in the same race. It’s overshadowed by Cap d’Ail’s course record, but the numbers for horse and jockey both stack up, and a good barrier run puts it firmly in the finish.
For multis, Legaselli in race one is the steadier inclusion, riding the K S Latham form line rather than its own thin recent starts. Grafology is the each-way watch on David Payne’s trainer strike rate at the track, even without much to show in the form guide yet.
The course angle for the day is Latham. Riding the two most course-experienced maiden types on the card, in a jockey colony where nobody else gets near his numbers here, that’s a pattern worth tracking every time he turns up at Kembla Grange. If Cap d’Ail keeps placing without winning, its next run at a lower level than a Kembla Grange maiden handicap is the one to circle.
FAQ
What time does racing start at Kembla Grange today?
The first race, the God Bless Venezuela Mdn Plate, jumps at 12:45, with race two following at 13:19.
Who are the top trainers and jockeys at Kembla Grange today?
David Payne leads the trainers on conversion rate, placing two-thirds of his runners from nine at the track. K S Latham leads the jockeys, placing 36 times from 68 rides, a 52.9% strike rate that’s clear of the rest of the field riding today.
What are the best bets at Kembla Grange today?
Cap d’Ail in race two is the standout, unbeaten on the placings front in three course starts and two recent runs. Legaselli in race one, aided by Latham in the saddle, is the more conservative multi leg.
Where can I find the best odds for Kembla Grange races?
Odds weren’t available for either race at the time of writing, so check your bookmaker of choice closer to the jump for the latest prices on Cap d’Ail and Legaselli.
Is there course form to trust on today’s Kembla Grange card?
Yes, more than most maiden cards offer. Cap d’Ail, Creator Of World and Powerful Majik have all raced at Kembla Grange three or more times, giving a real base to work from, while the rest of the field is mostly first or second-up at the track.
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