Overview
Proxima Dea has won her last four, and the most recent of those came in the Gloaming Stakes at Rosehill a fortnight ago, where she beat Wonka and Scarole home over 1800m. Today she gets another 200m, a Group 1 field and the same two rivals in the Spring Champion Stakes. That is the race the whole Randwick card leans on, and it is the one we think the market will get right for once.
There is plenty around it. Lindermann returns to the track where he has hit the frame in three of five starts for the Craven Plate, Punxsutawney Phil puts an unbeaten form line on the line in the Brian Crowley Stakes, and The Invitation brings together the first three from the Golden Pendant. Ten races on a Good track, first jump 12:10PM, last at 6:05PM. These Randwick racing tips go through every race, the stables and riders with real track records, and where we would put the money.
Reading the Randwick card
Most of today’s runners have only one or two starts here, but a handful have been around Randwick long enough to show a pattern.
| Horse | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lindermann | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20% | 60% |
| Ciaron’s Star | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 75% |
| Global Goal | 3 | 1 | 3 | 33% | 100% |
| Declichy Boulevard | 3 | 2 | 2 | 67% | 67% |
| Let’s Go Again | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 50% |
| Idle Flyer | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17% | 17% |
The riding ranks are deep, and the place rates separate them better than the win rates do.
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N Rawiller | 122 | 20 | 57 | 16% | 47% |
| Zac Lloyd | 149 | 19 | 69 | 13% | 46% |
| Siena Grima | 105 | 13 | 47 | 12% | 45% |
| Tim Clark | 122 | 17 | 50 | 14% | 41% |
| J R Collett | 107 | 15 | 38 | 14% | 36% |
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Pride | 98 | 11 | 49 | 11% | 50% |
| Michael Freedman | 69 | 9 | 31 | 13% | 45% |
| C J Waller | 380 | 51 | 166 | 13% | 44% |
| G Waterhouse & A Bott | 118 | 15 | 52 | 13% | 44% |
| C Maher | 129 | 23 | 49 | 18% | 38% |
Waller is the volume story, with a runner in most races and 51 Randwick winners from 380 starters. Maher has the best strike rate of the big stables at the track, a winner from roughly every five and a half runners.
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Race by race: Randwick predictions
Race 1: Arrowfield Kirkham Plate, 12:10PM, 1000m
Two-year-olds over 1000m, and only one of the remaining runners has been to the races. Chasing Archer ran fifth in the Breeders’ Plate here on 3 October at 70/1, which counts as experience but not much of a ratings case. The rest are debutants, so the form guide is a blank page.
Waller has Tour de Force with Rawiller and the filly Exo Velocity with McEvoy, and Maher sends Rosarito out with Zac Lloyd. If forced, Tour de Force on the strength of the stable and the leading rider at the track. Watch race, no bet.
Race 2: Tab Highway Hcp (C3), 12:45PM, 1600m
Does Bluish Hue have enough left in the tank after a busy spring? On the evidence so far, yes. The Dunn runner has been out four times in the past 90 days and placed in all four, finishing with a Class 2 win at Rosehill over 1500m on 26 September with Nash Rawiller aboard. Rawiller sticks, and the extra 100m should suit a horse that has been building through the distances.
Wolf Island is the danger. Two wins at Goulburn in September, then a fourth at 70/1 in a Rosehill Highway last start, which was better than the price suggested. Guy’s Last Prize gets in light with Chelsea Keatings claiming and has won two of the last five starts on the form line. Bluish Hue to win.
Race 3: Midway (Bm72), 1:20PM, 1200m
A wall of in-form provincial horses meets in a big field, and the one arriving with the cleanest run of results is Maidoff. Maidoff has won the last two at Illawarra Grange over 1200m and 1300m, the first of them with Rawiller, who is back on today. Two wins from three runs in the past 90 days and a mid draw in barrier 8 give the right profile to sit handy and kick.
Smoke ‘N’ Darts is the one that worries us most. Form of 22211, a Kembla Grange win at 14/1 last start, and Tim Clark gets a good draw to work with. Peleus and Lawless Lucy are both last-start winners as well. Maidoff to win, with Smoke ‘N’ Darts on top in the exacta.
Race 4: Alm On-Premise Brian Crowley Stakes, 2:00PM, 1200m
Punxsutawney Phil has done everything asked so far. Three runs in the past 90 days, three wins: a Scone maiden, a Benchmark 64 at Illawarra Grange, then a Benchmark 64 here on 7 October over 1250m, the last two with Zac Lloyd, who rides again. The trip drops 50m in distance but goes up in grade, and that is the test.
Crescent King is the obvious danger. Crescent King has won both runs in the past 90 days, including a Warwick Farm Benchmark 68 for two-year-olds, and Tim Clark takes the ride. Ciaron’s Star was second in the Heritage Stakes at Rosehill and has placed in three of four Randwick starts. With Portico and Superbec scratched, this is a field of six. Punxsutawney Phil to win, and he goes in the multis.
Race 5: Myplates Callander-Presnell, 2:40PM, 1600m
The shape here favours the horse who can see out the mile, and with Diameter withdrawn to run in the Spring Champion, that opens the race for Omolong. Omolong finished second in the Tapp-Craig at Rosehill over 1400m at 16/1, ahead of stablemate Lafite, and Kerrin McEvoy keeps the ride for Waller. The step to 1600m looks the logical next move.
Gridlock is the improver. Back-to-back wins at Newcastle and Kembla Grange for Michael Freedman, whose Randwick runners place 45% of the time, and Tommy Berry takes over. Why So Hard ran third in the Roman Consul at 20/1 and won on the only Randwick visit, but goes from 1200m to 1600m. Omolong each-way, Gridlock the saver.
Race 6: Asahi Super Dry Craven Plate, 3:20PM, 1800m
Lindermann knows this track better than anything else in the race. Five Randwick starts, a win and three placings, and the win came in the Chelmsford Stakes here on 5 September over 1600m with Rawiller. Lindermann ran second in the Hill Stakes at Rosehill last start at odds-on, beaten but not disgraced, and Rawiller is back on for Waller.
Eliyass ran third behind him in that Hill Stakes and has a Randwick win too, in the Premier’s Cup Prelude at 25/1 in August. Tom Kitten was third in the Epsom here at 30/1 and is the one who could spoil it if the pace is strong. Lindermann to win; Eliyass for the exotics.
Race 7: Moet & Chandon Spring Champion Stakes, 4:00PM, 2000m
Proxima Dea and Wonka met two weeks ago in the Gloaming Stakes over 1800m at Rosehill. Proxima Dea won, Wonka ran second, Scarole third. The form line is that simple, and we see no reason the extra 200m reverses it.
Proxima Dea has won her last four. The run started at 50/1 here in July over 1400m, then came wins at Gosford over 1600m and at Rosehill over 1800m in a Benchmark 72, before the Gloaming. That is a filly getting better with every rise in distance, and she gets the 2kg fillies’ allowance against the colts. David Payne and Zac Lloyd have combined for two wins and four placings from six rides together, including the Gloaming.
Wonka is the danger with the best track record in the field: two from two at Randwick, including the Dulcify Stakes on 3 October, and placings in all five runs in the past 90 days. James Collett rides for Waller, a combination with eight placings from 13 Randwick rides together. If anything turns the Gloaming result around, it is Wonka‘s comfort at this track.
Global Goal is the interesting one. She won the Flight Stakes here over 1600m at her last start and has placed in all three Randwick runs, but 2000m is a new question. Mindgames won at Goulburn and ran second at Newcastle in benchmark company, which is a big leap from here. Scarole has placed in five of six runs in the past 90 days and keeps finishing in the first three.
Proxima Dea to win. Box her with Wonka and Global Goal in the exacta for a saver.
Race 8: The Invitation, 4:45PM, 1400m
The market problem here is that the Golden Pendant result may be priced too literally. Lazzura won that race at 17/20 over 1400m at Rosehill, with Verona Rose second and Modella third. She is the horse to beat again, and Tommy Berry takes the ride for Waller. Two runs in the past 90 days, a win and a third, and she placed on her only Randwick visit.
Stylish is the fresh form line. She won the Rose of Kingston Stakes at Flemington on 3 October and comes north for the Hayes stable with Tim Clark aboard. Verona Rose has placed in both her Randwick starts and both her runs in the past 90 days, which makes her the each-way profile. Lazzura to win; Verona Rose for the place.
Race 9: Five Diamonds Prelude, 5:30PM, 1500m
Welcometotheshow arrives from Melbourne with the stronger recent form: a Tontonan Stakes at Flemington over 1400m win at 13/1 in September, then third in the Toorak Handicap at Caulfield at 15/1. There is a Randwick win on the record too, from a single visit. Ashley Morgan rides for Tyler Donaldson-Aitken, and 56kg is a kind weight after a run like that.
Declichy Boulevard has two wins from three Randwick starts and won a Benchmark 88 here over 1600m on 19 September, but ran 12th in the Epsom last time. Tommy Berry rides for Waller. If the Randwick version turns up, that is the danger. Welcometotheshow to win.
Race 10: Robrick Lodge Filante Hcp, 6:05PM, 1600m
Joseph Pride places half his Randwick runners, and Anthracite is the kind of horse who keeps that number up. Seven runs in the past 90 days, two wins and six top-three finishes, the latest a Benchmark 88 win at Rosehill over 2000m on 10 October. Two Randwick starts have produced two placings, and Andrew Adkins rode in every one of those recent runs.
The doubt is the drop back to 1600m after racing over 1800m to 2000m. That puts Anythink Goes in play as the danger, three placings from four runs in the past 90 days, and Estadio Mestalla has run second twice in stakes company at Rosehill but carries 61kg. Anthracite each-way.
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Where the money goes
NAP: Proxima Dea (Race 7, 4:00PM). Four wins on the bounce, and she has already beaten the main danger over a shorter trip.
Value: Welcometotheshow (Race 9, 5:30PM). A Flemington stakes winner who ran third in the Toorak, against a field with patchier recent form.
Banker: Punxsutawney Phil (Race 4, 2:00PM). Three runs in the past 90 days, three wins, and the same rider again.
Each-way: Anthracite (Race 10, 6:05PM). Six top-three finishes from seven recent runs is the definition of a place horse.
Course angle: Nash Rawiller at Randwick. He leads today’s riders with 20 wins from 122 rides here and places on nearly half of them, and he rides Bluish Hue, Maidoff and Lindermann on this card.
If Proxima Dea gets the 2000m today, Payne will have a staying filly to plan around for the rest of the spring.
FAQ
What time does racing start at Randwick today?
Race 1, the Arrowfield Kirkham Plate over 1000m, jumps at 12:10PM local time. The Spring Champion Stakes is Race 7 at 4:00PM and the last, the Robrick Lodge Filante Handicap, is at 6:05PM.
Who are the top trainers and jockeys at Randwick?
Nash Rawiller has 20 wins and 57 placings from 122 Randwick rides, and Zac Lloyd has 69 placings from 149. Chris Waller has 51 winners from 380 Randwick starters, while Joseph Pride places half of his 98.
What are the best bets at Randwick today?
Our Randwick best bet is Proxima Dea in the Spring Champion Stakes, the winner of her last four. Punxsutawney Phil in Race 4 is the banker, three wins from three runs in the past 90 days.
Where can I find the best odds for Randwick races?
Markets were not open when these Randwick odds were checked. Use the racecard for each race on Racingbase to see the best available price across our partner bookmakers once betting opens.