Scone Racing Tips Sept 25: Is Magic Merlin Too Good?
Rosehill Racing Tips Sep 26 — Can Better Late Deliver?
Overview
J B McDonald has finished in the money more than half the time he’s ridden at Rosehill, and on Saturday he swings back aboard Better Late in the Midway Handicap carrying the sort of recent form that turns Rosehill racing tips into more than guesswork — three runs for three placings and a win across the past three months. That’s the standout angle heading into a tight three-race card at headquarters on Saturday 26 September, run entirely on turf across trips from a sharp 1422m to a genuine 2625m staying test. It’s a short program by Saturday standards, but there’s a case to build in all three legs rather than shrug at a couple of them, and one trainer in particular is racing house money at this track right now. Here’s how it shapes up, leg by leg, plus the bet worth backing hardest.
What today’s Rosehill card gives us
Course form is thin across this field, which is normal for a card this size — most runners have raced at Rosehill once or not at all, so the numbers below lean on jockeys and trainers rather than a long list of course specialists. A handful of horses have banked three or more runs at the track and they tell their own story: Xtreme has never finished outside the top three in three visits, Equilibrist has been round five times without a place, and Better Late — the one we like most today — has just one placing from three starts here, though the picture changes completely once you widen the lens to his last three runs anywhere.
| Horse | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xtreme | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| Better Late | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 33.3% |
| Whateley | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 33.3% |
| The Main Event | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 25.0% |
| Equilibrist | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
The jockey numbers carry more weight than the horse form here. J B McDonald wins better than a quarter of his Rosehill rides and places in almost six out of ten — comfortably the best combined win-and-place record among today’s riders with a genuine sample. Zac Lloyd edges him on raw winning percentage, and Nash Rawiller and Tim Clark both turn up in the placings often enough to matter.
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J B McDonald | 76 | 20 | 44 | 26.3% | 57.9% |
| N Rawiller | 50 | 7 | 27 | 14.0% | 54.0% |
| Zac Lloyd | 83 | 24 | 42 | 28.9% | 50.6% |
| A Bullock | 7 | 1 | 3 | 14.3% | 42.9% |
| K McEvoy | 62 | 5 | 26 | 8.1% | 41.9% |
| Tim Clark | 74 | 13 | 30 | 17.6% | 40.5% |
On trainers, M J Dunn is the number worth circling. He’s sent 19 runners to Rosehill for seven winners and five more placings — a 36.8% win rate and 63.2% place rate that dwarfs everyone else on this card with a real sample size behind it. Scott Collings and Paul Snowden both place at a higher rate again, but from smaller books of runs, so treat them as supporting evidence rather than headline acts.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Collings | 8 | 0 | 6 | 0% | 75.0% |
| M J Dunn | 19 | 7 | 12 | 36.8% | 63.2% |
| Paul Snowden | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 60.0% |
| T S Howlett | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 50.0% |
| John O’Shea & Tom Charlton | 29 | 4 | 14 | 13.8% | 48.3% |
| Nathan Doyle | 36 | 6 | 17 | 16.7% | 47.2% |
Keep McDonald and Dunn in mind as you work through the card below — both show up again in the horses we like.
Race-by-race at Rosehill
Race 1: Midway (Bm72) — 11:55am, 1422m
Better Late has been building to this. Three runs for Nathan Doyle over the past three months have produced a win and two placings — nothing worse than second — and he steps up into the Midway off that trajectory with J B McDonald taking the ride. McDonald’s Rosehill numbers do the talking: 44 places from 76 rides, more than a quarter of them winners, and his only previous pairing with Doyle at this track produced a win in a Midway (Bm72) race a fortnight ago, the same grade he lines up in today. Better Late’s form figures over his last four starts read 6-2-1-2 — one slip aside, he hasn’t missed a place, and the class of a Midway looks within range on that trend.
Last Druid is the one to respect. Three wins from his last six starts and a placing on his only previous visit to Rosehill give him claims, even if A B Collett’s overall strike rate at the track sits in the single figures. Alabama State also has a genuine leg to stand on, having won the only time he’s raced here, and Zac Lloyd rates as the pick of today’s jockeys by raw win percentage — but the form has softened across his last two runs, sixth then fifth, and that’s hard to ignore in a field this deep.
Back Better Late to win, with Last Druid the each-way cover if you want to hedge the size of the field.
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Race 2: Tab Highway Hcp (C2) — 12:30pm, 1640m
M J Dunn doesn’t need much of an introduction to Rosehill regulars, and his return with Bluish Hue carries weight given the trainer’s numbers at this track sit well clear of the rest of the field. Bluish Hue has finished second in each of her past three runs — no lapse in form, just no breakthrough yet — and N Rawiller, aboard again, places more than half the time he rides here. If those minor placings are ever going to turn into a win, this looks like the spot.
Xtreme is the danger, and arguably the more interesting number of the two. He’s placed in all three of his Rosehill starts and hasn’t finished worse than third in six runs everywhere else this campaign, with a win mixed through that string. K McEvoy’s placing rate at the track backs up the profile even if his winning strike rate is modest. Giddy Up Griff also deserves a mention off back-to-back wins, though J R Collett is yet to ride a winner from 45 rides at Rosehill, which is too big a number to explain away.
Each-way on Bluish Hue for the trainer angle, with Xtreme worth including in an exacta given how rarely he runs a blank.
Race 3: Asahi Super Dry Colin Stephen Quality — 1:05pm, 2625m
Bella Montagna won the only time she’s raced at Rosehill, and she gets back there under a Waterhouse and Bott stable that places close to four in ten runners at this track, with Tim Clark — the strongest jockey on offer in this race by placing percentage — back in the saddle. Her placings since haven’t produced another win, but over this genuine 2625m she gets the fitness edge that a proper staying trip usually rewards.
Fernao is the contrast. Four straight second placings show a horse that keeps knocking without quite getting the job done, and his solitary Rosehill start ended in sixth — a mark against him at this specific track even if the broader pattern is one of remarkable consistency. So You Are arrives in better touch again, a win last start lifting him out of a run of minor placings, and he’s the one to include if the tempo suits a closer.
Bella Montagna to win, with So You Are the each-way alternative if the market drifts.
The plays
Better Late is the best bet on the card. Three from three for placings across his past three runs, the rider with the best combined win-and-place record at Rosehill this term, and a trainer-jockey pairing that has already delivered a Rosehill winner together this spring — that’s enough conviction for a win bet in the Midway.
Xtreme is the value. He’s yet to miss a place in three Rosehill starts or in six runs everywhere else, and with prices not yet published for this meeting, he’s the type of professional placegetter markets tend to underrate until the results catch up.
Bella Montagna is the multi banker — a course winner from a leading stable, ridden again by the rider who places most often at Rosehill among today’s jockeys. Bluish Hue is the each-way play, three straight seconds under a trainer winning more than a third of his Rosehill runners right now.
If there’s a repeatable edge on this card, it’s M J Dunn. His Rosehill numbers — seven winners and five more placings from 19 runners — are the best of any trainer represented today, and Bluish Hue looks like the runner most likely to turn that record into another winner this week.
Best bookmakers for today’s Rosehill racing
Odds weren’t available through our feed for this meeting at the time of writing, so treat every price mentioned above as a form-based value call rather than a firm market number. Shop around before you jump — sign-up offers and best-odds guarantees can turn a marginal call like Xtreme into a genuinely profitable one, and comparing costs nothing.
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FAQ
What time does racing start at Rosehill today?
The Midway (Bm72) kicks off a three-race card at 11:55am, followed by the Tab Highway Hcp (C2) at 12:30pm and the Asahi Super Dry Colin Stephen Quality — the day’s longest race at 2625m — at 1:05pm.
Who are the top trainers and jockeys at Rosehill today?
J B McDonald leads the jockeys with a 57.9% place rate from 76 rides at the track, backed up by a 26.3% win rate. Among trainers, M J Dunn stands out with seven winners and five more placings from 19 runners at Rosehill, a 63.2% place rate that’s the best of anyone on today’s card with a real sample behind it.
What are the best bets at Rosehill today?
Better Late in the Midway (Bm72) is our pick of the day — three runs, three placings and a win over the past three months, with McDonald aboard. Xtreme in the Tab Highway looks the value proposition given he hasn’t missed a place in three Rosehill starts.
Where can I find the best odds for Rosehill races?
Prices for this meeting weren’t published through our odds feed at the time of writing. Compare markets across the bookmakers listed above before placing anything, since an extra point or two of odds on a horse like Xtreme or Bella Montagna compounds over a season.
