Tatura Racing Tips Sep 29 — Can Pomah Deliver For O'Brien?
Rosehill Racing Tips Sep 30: Can Waller’s Army Be Beaten?
Overview
C J Waller has six runners in race one, a three-year-old maiden over 1531m, after trimming an oversized field of nominations through the week — still the largest single presence any stable has in a maiden anywhere on the card. Rosehill’s three-race meeting on September 30 isn’t a big day on paper, but there’s enough usable form in it to make working through it worthwhile. Concrete Storm has won two of its past three runs without missing a place in any of them, and heads into what looks the best betting race on the card. Affari keeps finishing in the money without quite breaking through in a maiden handicap, and J B McDonald partners a Waller runner in back-to-back races today, a booking arrangement worth watching rather than ignoring. These Rosehill racing tips work through all three races, note the trainer and jockey numbers that matter, and land on where the real value sits.
Reading the Rosehill card
Limited course form across today’s fields — most runners have one or two starts here, and only Hanau, among today’s runners, has raced at Rosehill three times or more without ever troubling the judge. That doesn’t mean the track numbers are useless; it just means they sit behind form, class and connections rather than in front of them, on a card built largely around three-year-olds still building a résumé. Ertijaaj is the exception worth flagging: a win and a placing from two runs at the track is a genuinely useful data point, even if two starts isn’t enough to call anyone a course specialist.
The scratchings tell their own story. All six late withdrawals from race one belong to Waller, trimming an original twelve entries down to six runners — a reminder that this stable nominates broadly and sorts out its final team closer to raceday. Race two lost four more, two of them Waller horses again, while race three’s field of ten came through untouched.
Where the numbers carry real weight is jockeys and trainers, who’ve ridden and trained here often enough for the figures to mean something. Zac Lloyd and J B McDonald sit clear of the other riders engaged today on both counts, and John O’Shea and Tom Charlton’s placing strike rate from a meaningful sample stands out among the trainers, even if C J Waller’s sheer volume of runners dwarfs every other stable on the card.
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J B McDonald | 82 | 21 | 47 | 25.6% | 57.3% |
| N Rawiller | 56 | 9 | 30 | 16.1% | 53.6% |
| Zac Lloyd | 89 | 24 | 46 | 27.0% | 51.7% |
| S Clipperton | 35 | 4 | 17 | 11.4% | 48.6% |
| K McEvoy | 68 | 6 | 29 | 8.8% | 42.7% |
| C Schofield | 43 | 6 | 17 | 14.0% | 39.5% |
| Tim Clark | 80 | 14 | 31 | 17.5% | 38.8% |
| Siena Grima | 67 | 9 | 25 | 13.4% | 37.3% |
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L J Bridge | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20.0% | 60.0% |
| G Ryan & S Alexiou | 28 | 6 | 15 | 21.4% | 53.6% |
| John O’Shea & Tom Charlton | 34 | 4 | 16 | 11.8% | 47.1% |
| Bjorn Baker | 86 | 13 | 35 | 15.1% | 40.7% |
| Matthew Smith | 37 | 5 | 15 | 13.5% | 40.5% |
| Michael Freedman | 45 | 8 | 18 | 17.8% | 40.0% |
| C Maher | 65 | 5 | 25 | 7.7% | 38.5% |
| C J Waller | 256 | 39 | 97 | 15.2% | 37.9% |
L J Bridge’s line sits on just five runs at the track, so treat the top spot as a small-sample standout rather than an established trend.
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Race by race at Rosehill
Race 1: Tab Mdn Plate — 1:50pm, 1531m
G Waterhouse and Adrian Bott send out two of the more interesting types in this maiden, and on the numbers Victorious Ruler is the one to side with. A third and a second from two runs give it the strongest finishing profile of any fancied runner in the field, and a maiden win looks close rather than hopeful. Stablemate Low Key carries a similar shape — a second and a sixth from its two runs — and draws barrier six to Victorious Ruler’s ten; either could get the favours in how the race is run.
C J Waller fields five more of the six that survived the scratchings, and Iommi is the pick of that group for N Rawiller, having placed twice from three runs this preparation. He’s raced once at Rosehill without figuring, so this is more about the wider form than the track record. Snitzel’s Girl and Stellar Cipher round out the stable’s better claims but neither matches Victorious Ruler’s finishing pattern through the prep so far, and Dr Know and Tiger Turf both look like they need this run more than they threaten to win it.
Back Victorious Ruler to win, and treat Low Key as the each-way saver if the market drifts toward the stablemate.
Race 2: Cactus Imaging Mdn Hcp — 2:25pm, 1312m
Affari has placed in every one of its three runs this campaign without winning one, and dropping into a more suitable grade behind J B McDonald gives that record a real chance to turn into a maiden victory. McDonald and C J Waller have combined for 16 wins and 33 places from 58 rides together at Rosehill, a partnership good enough that today’s booking looks deliberate rather than convenient.
Barracks is the each-way risk. Two seconds and a fourth from three runs under N Rawiller is its own weight of evidence, and top-weight in this field says the handicapper rates it the one to catch. Electric Bliss and Shanti both have a single placed effort to their name for stables — Annabel Neasham and Rob Archibald, and Waterhouse and Bott respectively — that know how to find one ready to win fresh from a break, and either is worth a place saver rather than a strong opinion at this stage of their careers.
Win bet on Affari; Barracks has enough claims for a placing saver if the price on offer makes it worthwhile.
Race 3: Asahi Super Dry (Bm72) — 3:00pm, 1531m
Two horses have been doing most of the winning in this field before it’s even run. Concrete Storm has taken out two of its last three starts and never missed a place across that stretch, carries the lightest weight in the race, and is ridden by Zac Lloyd, who’s turned Rosehill into something close to home turf: 24 winners and 46 places from 89 rides, the best numbers of any jockey engaged today. His stable, John O’Shea and Tom Charlton, has combined with Lloyd for a win and six places from eleven rides together at the track — modest on the winners column, solid on the ability to keep finding a place.
Oakfield Utah is the class alternative. Three wins from four runs and an average finishing position of two is a genuinely strong campaign, and K McEvoy takes over on a horse carrying top-weight for a reason. If this turns into a two-speed affair through the middle stages, Oakfield Utah’s turn of foot from off the pace could be the difference; if it’s run home in a true gallop, Concrete Storm’s placing record suggests it holds its ground better.
Siragusa, Stallone and Ertijaaj all deserve mention without being top of the market. Siragusa has placed in four of six runs this campaign, Stallone has managed three placings from four including a win, and Ertijaaj is the rare runner in this field with genuine course form — a win and a placing from two starts at Rosehill for Tommy Berry and the Waller stable. That’s too small a sample to call him a specialist, but it’s a real data point in his favour. Glastonbury Girl, Anthropoid, Verbil, Hanau and Azarax round out the field without a strong case for the top three; Glastonbury Girl’s habit of placing without winning (six places from seven runs) makes her the exotics runner if the market drifts.
Win bet on Concrete Storm, with Oakfield Utah the each-way and quinella cover if the tempo suits the horse racing off the speed.
The plays
Concrete Storm is the number one play of the day. Two wins and a placing from its last three runs, the lightest weight in the Bm72, and the track’s most productive jockey combine into the kind of case a columnist doesn’t hedge on — back it to win in race three.
NAP: Concrete Storm (Race 3, 3:00pm) — the strongest recent form line on the card carrying the least weight in the race.
Value: Victorious Ruler (Race 1, 1:50pm) — lightly raced with a placing in both starts, and unlikely to draw much market attention against a six-strong Waller team in the same race.
Banker: Affari (Race 2, 2:25pm) — placed in all three runs this campaign, the safest multi leg on the card even without a win yet to its name.
Each-way: Siragusa (Race 3, 3:00pm) — four placings from six runs, the most consistent frame-hitter on the card behind the two market leaders in the same race.
Course angle: C J Waller’s sheer weight of numbers is the recurring theme of the card — six survivors in the opening maiden alone is unusual depth for one trainer in any race, let alone a maiden — and it means wherever he has a runner today, expect him in the finish, even in races where he isn’t the one being tipped.
If Tulloch Lodge keeps stacking races the way it has today’s opening maiden, expect Rosehill’s placegetters list to keep reading like a Waller roll call for a while yet.
Best Bookmakers for Today’s Racing
Live odds weren’t available for today’s Rosehill races at the time of writing, so check the current market with a trusted bookmaker before placing a bet.
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FAQ
What time does racing start at Rosehill today?
The first race, the Tab Mdn Plate, jumps at 1:50pm, with three races on the card finishing with the Asahi Super Dry (Bm72) at 3:00pm.
Who are the top trainers and jockeys at Rosehill today?
J B McDonald leads today’s engaged jockeys on placings — 47 from 82 Rosehill rides at better than a 57% strike rate — with Zac Lloyd close behind on both win and place counts. Among the trainers, John O’Shea and Tom Charlton’s place rate from a meaningful sample stands out at 47%, though C J Waller’s 256 runs at the track dwarf every other operator on today’s card.
What are the best bets at Rosehill today?
Concrete Storm in the Bm72 (3:00pm) is the pick of the card off two wins from three runs, with Affari in race two and Victorious Ruler in the opening maiden the supporting plays.
Where can punters find the best odds for Rosehill races?
Odds move between firms and firm up closer to the jump — use the bookmaker comparison above to check the current market on each Rosehill race before betting.
What are the distances and surface at Rosehill today?
All three races are run on the Rosehill turf, ranging from 1312m in the Cactus Imaging Mdn Hcp up to 1531m in both the opening maiden and the Asahi Super Dry (Bm72).
