Overview
Thundering Soul has won three of his five starts at Toowoomba, and on Saturday night he lines up in a Bm70 that includes a rival he has finished ahead of in all three of their meetings. That race is the anchor for these Toowoomba racing tips, and it comes from the stable with the best record on the card. Pat W Webster has saddled 21 winners from 71 runners here and placed with almost seven in ten of them. He brings four runners tonight.
The essentials: six races under lights, the first at 5:40PM and the last at 8:32PM. The racecard lists Good to Soft for the opening sprint and the last two races and Good for the middle three, with distances from 1050m to 1910m. There are two maidens, a Class 2 handicap and three benchmark races, and scratchings have gutted the Bm65. The best betting sits in Race 3, where two last-start Toowoomba winners clash, and Race 5, where Thundering Soul chases a third straight win.
Toowoomba racing tips: reading Saturday night’s card
This is a card full of local horses, and it shows in the course numbers. Eleven of tonight’s runners have had at least three starts here with a winning or placing record worth listing, and five of those have been here five times or more. The pattern that jumps out is how many of them place without winning. Shahar and Josephine Of Tuffy have each placed four times from five visits, and only one of those eight placings was a win.
| Horse | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thundering Soul | 5 | 3 | 4 | 60.0 | 80.0 |
| Shahar | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20.0 | 80.0 |
| Josephine Of Tuffy | 5 | 0 | 4 | 0.0 | 80.0 |
| Fire And Light | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25.0 | 75.0 |
| Deep Tiara | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25.0 | 75.0 |
| Toscanella | 3 | 2 | 2 | 66.7 | 66.7 |
| Redcloud | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33.3 | 66.7 |
| Wanted Hillbilly | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Sir Goldalot | 6 | 1 | 3 | 16.7 | 50.0 |
| Turf Gazette | 4 | 1 | 2 | 25.0 | 50.0 |
| Jemeldi | 8 | 0 | 4 | 0.0 | 50.0 |
Jaden Lloyd has the best numbers among tonight’s riders, though from a smaller book than the locals at the top of the volume list. MS K Lenton and G Geran have each ridden more than a hundred times here and both place at better than four in ten.
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden Lloyd | 19 | 5 | 10 | 26.3 | 52.6 |
| MS K Lenton | 135 | 21 | 59 | 15.6 | 43.7 |
| G Geran | 104 | 17 | 45 | 16.3 | 43.3 |
| Ashley Butler | 55 | 10 | 21 | 18.2 | 38.2 |
| M Hellyer | 32 | 5 | 11 | 15.6 | 34.4 |
| Aidan Keeley | 67 | 9 | 21 | 13.4 | 31.3 |
| Stacey Callow | 88 | 5 | 27 | 5.7 | 30.7 |
| Montanna Savva | 76 | 6 | 23 | 7.9 | 30.3 |
Webster sits clear of every other trainer on the card. Corey & Kylie Geran have by far the biggest base here at 209 runners and send seven tonight, K R Kemp has six, and Nick Keal wins with about one runner in five from 81 starters.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat W Webster | 71 | 21 | 49 | 29.6 | 69.0 |
| Jake Capewell | 22 | 4 | 13 | 18.2 | 59.1 |
| William Kropp | 25 | 4 | 13 | 16.0 | 52.0 |
| Nick Keal | 81 | 17 | 39 | 21.0 | 48.1 |
| P J Minter | 26 | 2 | 12 | 7.7 | 46.2 |
| Troy Pascoe | 40 | 5 | 17 | 12.5 | 42.5 |
| Corey & Kylie Geran | 209 | 22 | 84 | 10.5 | 40.2 |
| K R Kemp | 133 | 14 | 50 | 10.5 | 37.6 |
| Michael Nolan | 88 | 13 | 26 | 14.8 | 29.5 |
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Race by race: Toowoomba predictions
Race 1: Toowoomba Grammar School Hcp (C2), 5:40PM, 1110m
Shahar keeps turning up and keeps running well, and in a Class 2 sprint on a Good to Soft track that reliability is worth more than a flashy single win. Five Toowoomba starts have produced one win and four placings, and five runs since July have brought three placings. The form line of 3, 2, 4, 2, 2, 4 tells you the floor is high.
The connections help. MS K Lenton and Nick Keal have combined 50 times here for ten winners, and Lenton rode Shahar to a second here on 5 September. Shahar also carries one of the lighter weights from barrier 5, which should let Lenton settle just behind the speed.
The danger is Sort Cha Mess, the topweight for Webster. One win and three placings from four runs since July is the strongest recent profile in the race, but barrier 12 means Ashley Butler either burns petrol early or concedes ground. Deep Tiara has placed three times from four visits here and jumps from gate 2, so she belongs in exotics. Hell Of A Lad, Decorative and Kemal are scratched.
Each-way on Shahar. The place is close to bankable; the win is the question it has struggled to answer.
Race 2: Netlogix (Bm65), 6:13PM, 1300m
Can a horse that has won both its Toowoomba starts be beaten by one that has been knocking the door down elsewhere? Five scratchings (Godtfred Kirk, Lyrical Gangster, Paciera, Mister Selfie and Einstag) leave eight runners, and the race now looks like a three horse argument.
Miss de Medici is the one with the course record, two from two, and she won here on 29 August with MS K Lenton aboard. The form since has been a 0 and a 5, though, and barrier 9 is not ideal over 1300m.
I prefer Scruffy. The last three runs read 2, 2, 1, so this horse has placed at every start since July and won the latest. Barrier 1 and one of the lighter weights in the race are both in his favour, and William Kropp places with about half of his Toowoomba runners. Colleen Krahnen has a small sample here, nine rides, but the horse is doing the work.
Toscanella is the third leg. Two wins from three here, including 29 August under Aidan Keeley, but the last start was unplaced. Fire And Light has placed three times from four visits and is worth keeping in multiples for Webster.
Back Scruffy to win.
Race 3: Rentco (Bm60), 6:45PM, 1640m
Sir Goldalot and Turf Gazette both won here on 3 October, in separate races, and they have never met. One grinds, the other has just found a winning gear. That makes this the most interesting race on the card and, for me, the best betting race of the early session.
Sir Goldalot is the one I trust. His form has climbed with every run: 4, 3, 3, 1. Since July he has won once and placed in three of five starts, and that is a horse peaking rather than flattering. He has six starts at Toowoomba, so the track holds no surprises, and Jake Molloy kept the ride after winning on him last time. Nick Keal’s record here, 17 winners from 81 starters, gives the booking plenty of weight. He draws 7, which should let Molloy find a spot in the first half of the field before the turn.
Turf Gazette is the danger, and a real one. He finished 4 then 1 at his two runs since July and won here last time for the Aidan Keeley and Michael Nolan combination, which has three wins from nine rides together at the track. He carries a little less weight than Sir Goldalot, which could matter over 1640m.
Little Vain, a winner and two placings from five recent starts, is the best of the rest. Don’t Diss Around is topweight and has not won in six visits here. Out Of Luck is scratched.
Win bet on Sir Goldalot, with a saver quinella with Turf Gazette.
Race 4: J W Marriott Gold Coast Resort & Spa Mdn Plate, 7:23PM, 1210m
Three-year-old maidens with almost no exposed form, so keep the stakes small. Coup de Cash is my pick. He finished fourth on debut here on 3 October for Ashtyn Reedy with Montanna Savva aboard, and the same team stays together tonight. That gives him the most relevant run in the race, and second-up improvement is the logical next step. Barrier 10 is the worry.
Super Intent is the unknown worth respecting. He debuts for Pat W Webster with Ashley Butler, and a stable that places with seven in ten here does not need to explain itself. Steventown ran second at his only Toowoomba start and draws barrier 1, which makes him the obvious each-way alternative. Galloping Ellie is the other first-starter, for the Gerans with G Geran riding.
Small win on Coup de Cash. This is a race to watch more than bet.
Race 5: Carboline (Bm70), 7:59PM, 1050m
The market problem here is simple: there may not be one. Thundering Soul is the clear class of the race, and the only question is whether the price will be worth taking once books open.
The course record is the strongest on the card. Three wins and four placings from five starts here is real course form, and he arrives on the back of two straight wins, at Toowoomba on 18 July and again on 3 October. He also has a clear edge over the main danger. He has met Jemeldi three times, all here, and finished ahead every time, winning twice. On 3 October he won and Jemeldi ran third.
Jemeldi is still the one to beat him. Two wins and four placings from five runs since July is a solid profile, and G Geran rides. The catch is that Jemeldi has placed four times in eight visits here without a win.
Two things temper the confidence slightly. Thundering Soul carries the topweight, and Fiona Sandkuhl has one win from 27 rides here. Still, barrier 2 in a six runner field, with Milton Road scratched, should give her a simple run. Mr Evans has placed twice from three visits and rounds out the exotics.
Win bet on Thundering Soul. This is the best bet of the night.
Race 6: Vale Trevor Glasby Mdn Plate, 8:32PM, 1910m
Josephine Of Tuffy grinds out placings; Highland Kitty does the same with less weight. In a weak staying maiden, the tempo and the jockeys decide which profile wins.
I side with Josephine Of Tuffy. Four placings from five Toowoomba starts, four more from five runs since July, and a form line of 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4 that never drops out of the finish. She ran third here on 3 October. Jaden Lloyd takes the ride, and he heads tonight’s jockey numbers here with five wins from 19 rides and places at more than half. Barrier 3 suits.
Highland Kitty can beat her. She carries the lightest weight in the field from barrier 2, and her five runs since July have produced four placings. She has not raced at Toowoomba, which is the only real gap in her profile.
Panzer Ready, for Greer Doig with M Hellyer riding, is the next best. Concador is scratched.
Each-way on Josephine Of Tuffy, because a top three finish is far likelier than a first win.
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Where the money goes
NAP: Thundering Soul (Race 5, 7:59PM). Two wins in a row, three from five at the track and a perfect record against the one horse that looks capable of challenging him. Markets were not up at the time of writing.
Value: Scruffy (Race 2, 6:13PM). Placed at every run since July, won the latest and drawn the rail. Miss de Medici‘s course record will draw the attention, which should leave Scruffy at a fair price once books open.
Banker: Sir Goldalot (Race 3, 6:45PM). An improving horse that knows the track, kept with the jockey who won on him last time, from a stable that wins one in five here.
Each-way: Josephine Of Tuffy (Race 6, 8:32PM). Placings have come at almost every start, and the jockey with the best strike rate on the card takes the ride. Hard to see her out of the finish.
Course angle: Pat W Webster at Toowoomba. Nearly three winners in every ten runners and placings with close to seven in ten. Thundering Soul, Sort Cha Mess, Fire And Light and Super Intent all carry his colours tonight.
If Webster’s four runners land the way his record suggests, they will be the first names I look for every time Toowoomba racing tips come around on a Saturday night.
FAQ
What time does racing start at Toowoomba tonight?
Race 1, the Toowoomba Grammar School Hcp (C2) over 1110m, jumps at 5:40PM. The last of the six races, the Vale Trevor Glasby Mdn Plate over 1910m, goes at 8:32PM.
Who are the top trainers and jockeys at Toowoomba?
Pat W Webster leads the trainers with 21 winners from 71 runners here and 49 placings. Nick Keal has 17 winners from 81. Among jockeys, Jaden Lloyd has five wins from 19 rides with ten placings, and MS K Lenton has 21 wins from 135 rides.
What are the best bets at Toowoomba tonight?
Thundering Soul in Race 5 is the top pick after back-to-back wins and three victories from five starts here. Sir Goldalot in Race 3 is the most reliable multi leg, and Josephine Of Tuffy in Race 6 is the each-way play after four placings from five course starts.
Where can I find the best Toowoomba odds?
Markets had not opened for any of the six races at the time of writing. Compare the bookmakers listed above once prices go up, and check each-way terms for Race 1 and Race 6, where Shahar and Josephine Of Tuffy have placed in eight of their ten combined Toowoomba starts.