Overview
Ciaron Maher has sent seven runners to Warrnambool on Thursday, and his record here says that is worth taking seriously: 12 winners from 48 runners at the track, with 26 of them finishing in the frame. Three of the seven go in the last race, and the one we want is Invisible Magic, who has placed in all four of his runs over the last 90 days.
It is an eight-race turf card rated Good to Soft, starting with a maiden highweight over 2187m at 3:00PM and closing with a 1531m benchmark 62 at 6:30PM. These Warrnambool racing tips cover every race, with live prices where a bookmaker was betting when this was written. Only the first two races had markets up, so the back six carry form and connections rather than odds. Races 5 to 8 make up the quaddie, and that is where most of the card’s best bets sit.
Reading the Warrnambool card
Course form is thin across the horses. Only eight runners have had three or more starts here, and only one of those has won here. Both Sides Now has two wins from five visits, but has gone 3 runs without a placing over the last 90 days.
| Horse | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both Sides Now | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | 40 |
| Paramount War | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 67 |
| Super Snitch | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
| A Little Reward | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Heed The Omens | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The riders have more to say. S Pateman hits the frame on more than two-thirds of his rides here, and B Rawiller places on just over half of his with four wins.
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S Pateman | 22 | 3 | 15 | 14 | 68 |
| B Rawiller | 22 | 4 | 12 | 18 | 55 |
| MS L J Meech | 63 | 9 | 33 | 14 | 52 |
| T Ryan | 21 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 48 |
| D M Parker | 20 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 45 |
| E J Walsh | 11 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 45 |
| John Allen | 53 | 9 | 19 | 17 | 36 |
| Declan Bates | 38 | 8 | 15 | 21 | 39 |
Among the stables, three trainers share the lead on 12 winners each, but Maher has needed far fewer runners to get there.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C Maher | 48 | 12 | 26 | 25 | 54 |
| Tom Dabernig | 71 | 12 | 34 | 17 | 48 |
| Shane Jackson | 64 | 12 | 25 | 19 | 39 |
| Henry Dwyer | 15 | 3 | 8 | 20 | 53 |
| Adam Chambers | 12 | 4 | 6 | 33 | 50 |
| Symon Wilde | 87 | 9 | 29 | 10 | 33 |
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Warrnambool predictions, race by race
Race 1: Jericho Cup Packages Available Mdn Hwt Plate, 3:00PM, 2187m
The market has Ned Kelly at $1.95 with Bet Right, and that price asks a lot of a horse whose only run in the last 90 days produced a sixth. His earlier form has a second and a third in it, so he can win this, but odds-on is the wrong side of the argument.
Paramount War is the one. He has placed in two of his three starts at Warrnambool, his last run was a second, and his form line reads like a horse that keeps turning up: second, seventh, third, second, third, second, most recent first. T Ryan places on almost half of his rides here, and drawn in 8 over 2187m there is plenty of time to find a spot. At $2.70 with Unibet he is the better bet of the two.
Ned Kelly is the danger if the last run was a blip. Win bet on Paramount War.
Race 2: May Racing Carnival Now On Sale Hwt (Bm62), 3:30PM, 1859m
Does course form still count when the current form has gone? Both Sides Now is the only horse on the card with two Warrnambool wins, and the market has respected that at $4.60 with Unibet. But his last six runs read eighth, seventh, three unplaced efforts and a sixth, and the 90 days have produced nothing in three starts.
Share The Stars comes in the other way. He was second last start, has a win further back in his form, and placed on his only run here. Cillin Leonard has three placings from eight rides at the track and jumps from barrier 1, which should let him take the shortest way round in a big field. He is $4.20 with Unibet and that is fair.
Crossoverkid, $5.00 with Bet Right, has two seconds in his recent form before a ninth last time and is the danger from out wide. Win bet on Share The Stars.
Race 3: The Midfield Group – Emerging Stars Series Heat 3 Mdn Plate, 4:00PM, 1531m
Tuscan Rose has had two starts, both at Warrnambool, and ran second in one of them. That is a small sample, but in a maiden full of unraced and lightly raced types it is real track experience. Shane Jackson has 12 winners here and Declan Bates wins on more than a fifth of his Warrnambool rides, the best strike rate of any regular on today’s card.
Normandy Peace was third last start, and that run came here. Tom Madden rides for Aaron Purcell from barrier 10, so he will need luck from out wide. No market was up when this was written. Small win bet on Tuscan Rose.
Race 4: Michelin Service Centre Warrnambool Mdn Plate, 4:30PM, 1094m
Hard to have a confident view. A Little Reward has had five goes at this track without a placing, and three of the field have never raced. Hughie’s Spirit ran second twice in a row before a sixth last start, which is the best recent form in the race. The worry is the stable: S R Fisher has had 15 runners here without a winner.
Little Gangster ran third three starts back and is the other one to consider. This is a watch race. If you must play, a small each-way on Hughie’s Spirit.
Race 5: Cassign – Emerging Stars Series Heat 4 Mdn Plate, 5:00PM, 1312m
Piklemegranmother has run second four times in a row. The question is whether that is a horse about to win or one that keeps finding something better, and the riding booking does not settle it: Campbell Rawiller has had 12 rides at Warrnambool without a winner.
Big Vee answers it better. He has placed in both starts here, ran fourth last time after a third and a second, and has placed in two of his three runs over 90 days. B Rawiller rides for Tom Dabernig, a stable that places with close to half its Warrnambool runners. From barrier 7 he should get the run behind the speed and be the one finishing over the top.
Celestaria, third last start for Henry Dwyer, is the danger from the outside gate. Henry Dwyer has eight placings from 15 runners here. Win on Big Vee, with Piklemegranmother the each-way play for anyone who wants the place.
Race 6: S & S O’Keefe Bricklaying (Bm62), 5:30PM, 1312m
Pastoral King has had one start in his life, and he won it here. That was worth $23,375 and it came for Mitchell Freedman, who has three winners from 11 runners at the track. D Yendall rides, and he has 19 placings from 49 rides here. From barrier 5 he gets a fair run, and a horse that has already won at the track does not need to prove it handles the place.
King West is the main danger. He has placed in three of his four runs over 90 days, including a win, and ran third last time. Caitlin Hollowood has placed on all three of her rides here, which is a small sample but a strong one. Accuser also won his only start and draws barrier 1.
Win bet on Pastoral King, with King West the saver.
Race 7: Sungold Milk (Bm62), 6:00PM, 1094m
Twister won his last start, and it came at Warrnambool. That is his only run here and his only run in 90 days, so the sample is one, but it was a win worth $23,375 and B Rawiller rides from barrier 3. Over 1094m a good gate matters more than anything, and he has one.
Nordic Strike is the horse with the most consistent recent profile: three runs in 90 days, three placings, the last a third. He is the place option. Crickwood has a win and a second from two visits here but was sixth last start. Win on Twister, Nordic Strike in the exotics.
Race 8: Tab (Bm62), 6:30PM, 1531m
Ciaron Maher has three runners in this one, and the one to be on is Invisible Magic. He has finished in the first three in all four of his runs over 90 days, with a win among them. His last start was a second and his only run at Warrnambool was a placing.
Zac Moore rides from barrier 4, which puts him in the race from the start in a big field. The other Maher runners are worth noting. Dealer Sing has John Allen, and the Allen and Maher combination has won three of nine here. Black Aces won his only start at the track and comes off a win.
Charming Deel has placed in both of his Warrnambool starts and is the outside danger from barrier 14. Win bet on Invisible Magic.
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Where the money goes
NAP: Invisible Magic (Race 8, 6:30PM). Four runs, four placings, and the best strike rate of the big stables at the track. He is the most reliable horse on the card in a race where the others have more questions.
Value: Paramount War (Race 1, 3:00PM). $2.70 with Unibet against an odds-on favourite who was sixth last time. Two placings from three starts here are worth more than the market gives him.
Banker: Big Vee (Race 5, 5:00PM). Placed in both runs at the track and has a jockey who places on more than half his Warrnambool rides. He anchors the quaddie.
Each-way: Piklemegranmother (Race 5, 5:00PM). Four straight seconds. Whatever else happens in this race, that is a horse that keeps finishing in the frame.
Course angle: Ciaron Maher‘s runners. A quarter of his runners win here and more than half place. With seven on the card, every one of them is worth a second look.
If Pastoral King goes two from two at Warrnambool, the Freedman stable becomes the one to watch next time it brings a horse here.
Warrnambool racing FAQ
What time does racing start at Warrnambool today?
Race 1, a maiden highweight over 2187m, goes at 3:00PM. The last race, a benchmark 62 over 1531m, is at 6:30PM.
Who are the top jockeys and trainers at Warrnambool?
MS L J Meech has had the most rides here among today’s jockeys, 63, with nine wins and 33 placings. Declan Bates wins on 21% of his 38 rides. Among trainers, C Maher, Tom Dabernig and Shane Jackson each have 12 winners at the track, and Maher has needed the fewest runners.
What are the best Warrnambool bets today?
Invisible Magic in Race 8 is the NAP, Paramount War in Race 1 is the value at $2.70 and Big Vee in Race 5 is the banker. Piklemegranmother in the same race is the each-way play.
Where can I find the best Warrnambool odds?
Only Races 1 and 2 had prices when this was written. Paramount War was $2.70 with Unibet, Ned Kelly $1.95 with Bet Right and Share The Stars $4.20 with Unibet. The bookmaker table above compares current offers.
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