Overview
Yauson is the best bet on Melbourne Cup day, and the reason is simple: two wins and two placings from four starts in the past 90 days, with Jordan Childs riding for G Waterhouse and A Bott in the Flemington BM80 at 11:20AM. Barrier 21 is the one knock, and 2000m gives him time to overcome it.
That is one of three selections drawn from two meetings, Flemington and Doomben. The best and value bets both had live prices when this was written. The quaddie anchor did not, because the Doomben market for that race hadn’t opened yet.
The best bet
Yauson, Flemington Race 2, 11:20, 2.90 with Unibet.
Yauson has been in the first three every time he has gone around lately: four starts in the past 90 days, two wins and two placings. In a 22-runner handicap that consistency is worth more than anything flashy. The Waterhouse and Bott stable have him in form, and Jordan Childs gets the ride.
The question is barrier 21. Over 2000m at Flemington there is a long run to the first turn, so Childs can be patient, slot in and find cover rather than burn petrol trying to cross. If he lands somewhere midfield with cover, Yauson is the one they all have to run down.
Johnich is the danger. He has won two of his last three and placed in all three, and he is the obvious each-way answer if the wide gate costs Yauson too much ground. Mr O’Reilly has also placed in all three recent runs and will be in the finish.
The value bet
Mister Whiskers, Flemington Race 3, 12:00, 9.50 with Bet Right.
Mister Whiskers is unbeaten from two starts and has already earned $105,875, yet he sits at 8.50 behind a favourite who places more often than she wins. That gap between record and price is the value on the card.
Charlotte Littlefield trains him, and she has sent out three winners from 15 runners at Flemington, with six of them placed. Jett Stanley draws barrier 2, so Mister Whiskers should get every chance from the inside without having to do any early work.
Star Of Macedon is the one to beat. She has placed in both of her Flemington runs and gets the run of the race from gate 6, so she is the obvious threat if Mister Whiskers finds the step up harder than his record suggests.
The quaddie angle
Tasman Bay, Doomben Race 9, 4:46.
The Doomben quaddie runs Races 7 to 10, and Tasman Bay in Race 9 is the leg to stand on. Tasman Bay won last start, has two wins from three runs in the past 90 days, and has a win and a placing from two Doomben starts. Five scratchings have cut the field to nine, which takes a lot of the traffic risk out of barrier 6.
Anthony Allen rides for Barry Lockwood and Emma-Jane Vincent, a small but sharp partnership: four wins and eight placings from 12 rides together, including a win and a second from two at Doomben. Single him and spend the rest of the ticket on Race 10, a 15-runner 1350m that looks the leg most likely to break quaddies.
Desanto is the danger, a winner at his only run in the past 90 days for Jack Bruce, who wins a fifth of his Doomben starts. If you want cover, add Desanto rather than going wide.
How these were picked
These three come from the full previews of all ten meetings we covered today: Flemington, Randwick, Doomben, Morphettville, Ascot, Hobart, Sunshine Coast, Kembla Grange, Gold Coast and Bunbury. With most markets yet to open, price decided between otherwise similar picks. So You Are in the Melbourne Cup, Puffin at Randwick and Col Burn at Sunshine Coast all rate highly in their own previews, but none had a live price, and a Cup handicap is no place to anchor a multi.
Native Clan at Hobart (2.15 with Bet Right) was the other priced option for the best bet. He has placed in four of five recent runs but won only one of them, so Yauson‘s two wins got the nod. For value, Darn Cute at Randwick (9.00 with Unibet) and Lawrenny Boys at Hobart (8.00 with Neds) were both close, but each was a saver in its own preview, while Mister Whiskers was a straight win bet. No race inside any meeting’s quaddie had a live price, so Tasman Bay, the NAP of the Doomben preview, takes the quaddie slot ahead of the bankers Compensation (Randwick), Taupo Tiger (Morphettville) and Sky Deck (Kembla Grange).