Overview
Akira San is the best bet on Sunday’s cards. It won last start and has finished in the first three at all three of its runs at the track, and it meets a five-horse field in the Property Lane Plate where the main danger hasn’t placed at the course.
That is one of three selections from two meetings, the Sunshine Coast and Warren. Two come with a live price. The third, the quaddie anchor, runs in a race whose market wasn’t open when this was written, so it carries no price yet.
The best bet
Akira San, Sunshine Coast Race 2, 1:40, 1.85 with Palmerbet.
It has a strong profile for a short-priced horse. Akira San has been to the Sunshine Coast three times and placed every time, and the recent form of 2-9-4-2-3-1 ends with a win. Over the last 90 days that adds up to one win and three placings from four runs. G Geran rides for the family stable of Corey & Kylie Geran over 1969m.
Chance de Lune is the danger at 4.40 with Bet Right. It has a recent win in the sequence, but its last start was an eighth, and it has no placings from two tries at the track. With Crunch Time scratched, only five go around, and there isn’t enough in the field to make the price look short.
The value bet
Castlebar Road, Warren Race 3, 2:55, 6.00 with Palmerbet.
The market has the Benchmark 82 the wrong way round. Fetes des Meres is the 3.00 favourite with Bet Right, but it has one placing and no wins from six runs in the last 90 days. Castlebar Road has a win and three placings from five runs this prep, ran second last time out, and won its only start at Warren.
Gabrielle Johnston rides for MS J Clement from barrier 6. Zampano at 4.80 is the other one with a claim after placing twice in four runs this prep, though it ran ninth last start. At 6.00, Castlebar Road is the best value on the Warren card.
The quaddie angle
Aliquam, Sunshine Coast Race 6, 4:05.
No horse on Sunday has a stronger course record. Aliquam has had five starts at the Sunshine Coast for two wins and five placings, an average finishing position of 1.8. The recent form reads 4-1-2-1-2-3, and it carries just 116.8kg in the Civil Scapes Hcp with Kayla Johnston aboard. L F Birchley and Johnston have teamed up 11 times at the track for two wins and six placings.
Race 6 is the third leg of the Sunshine Coast quaddie (Races 4 to 7), and Aliquam is the horse to take singly there. The danger is Cryptic Beauty, a last-start winner with three placings from three at the track, but it jumps from barrier 10 and carries 131.1kg, 14 kilos more than Aliquam. Bookmakers had not opened this market when this was written.
How these were picked
All three come from the full previews for Sunday’s five meetings: Sunshine Coast, Warren, Ararat, Armidale and York. Price broke the ties. Only the early races at a few meetings were priced when this was written, and a selection with a live price beats a similar one without.
That cost a few strong top picks. Aftermath in the Ararat Gold Cup, Breukelen at Armidale, News Bound in the Warren Shire Cotton Cup and Addictive Dream at York all have form for a best bet, but none of their markets was open. General Blu at Ararat is priced at 1.50, but a second and a fifth from two starts is a thinner case than Akira San‘s. For value, Harriet at Armidale (5.50 with Bet Right) came close, and Black Rutile in the Ararat hurdle (13.00 with Bet Right) has no wins from four runs in the last 90 days. No quaddie race at any meeting was priced, so the quaddie slot went to the best course profile on the day.