Overview
Moscow Maid is the best bet on Thursday. She has placed in all three of her runs in the past 90 days, and Tyler Schiller has three wins and four placings from five rides for the M, W & J Hawkes stable at Wyong. At $2.90 that is a price worth taking.
These are three selections from two meetings, Wyong and Northam. Moscow Maid and Brutal Advance have live prices. The quaddie angle, Show The Way, does not: no bookmaker had opened a market on any Northam race when this was written, so check the price before you play.
The best bet
Moscow Maid, Wyong Race 2, 1:50, 2.90 with Bet Right.
Her form line of 7143 is heading the right way, and the three runs this preparation have produced a win and two more placings. The connections are the real story. The Hawkes stable has won with half of its ten Wyong runners and placed with seven, and Schiller wins more than a quarter of his own rides at the track. When that rider and that stable team up here, they have rarely missed the frame.
Royal Silver is the danger. Michael Freedman‘s runner heads the market at $2.40 with Unibet on a form line of 2419, which shows ability but ends with a ninth. If that last run was a blip, it can win. We would rather be on the horse that keeps turning up. Win bet.
The value bet
Brutal Advance, Wyong Race 4, 3:05, 8.00 with Neds.
The favourite in this maiden is Mayflower, unraced and $2.80 with Unibet on the strength of the stable and J R Collett. Brutal Advance is the opposite: three runs in the past 90 days for three placings, and three straight seconds on a form line of 43-222. He has proved he can run a race. He just has not won one yet.
C Lever rides for K J Parker from barrier eight. Benson, second on debut, is the obvious danger at $4.40 with C Schofield aboard for John Thompson. Play it each-way. If Mayflower is as good as the price suggests, the place still pays at these odds.
The quaddie angle
Show The Way, Northam Race 7, 5:37.
Show The Way is two from two at Northam and has won his last two starts, so he comes into the last leg of the quaddie at the track he likes, in form. His line of 5-9-4-9-1-1 shows a horse who has built into it. Laqdar Ramoly keeps the ride for N D Parnham, whose 39 Northam runners have produced nine winners, and the Ramoly and Parnham combination has three wins from 12 rides at the track.
Barrier 9 in a field of 12 over 1400m is the worry, and Ramoly will need to push forward or come around them. Buster Biff is the danger from barrier 2, a winner two starts ago with P Harvey riding for D R Harrison. Use Show The Way as a single in the last leg. His market had not opened when this was written.
How these were picked
All three come from our full previews for Wyong, Casino, Northam and Warrnambool. Gatton was abandoned, so it is not covered.
Price decided the close calls. Airhawk, the Casino NAP after two straight wins, and Invisible Magic, the Warrnambool NAP with four placings from four runs, both had strong cases but no market open on their races, while Moscow Maid had a live $3.00. Mahuika Maroi at $8.00 in Casino Race 1 came close for the value slot, but Brutal Advance has placed at every run this time in, not three of five. For the quaddie, no race inside any of the four quaddies had a priced runner we would anchor on, so Show The Way gets the spot ahead of Invisible Magic and Big Vee on the strength of his perfect Northam record.