Overview
Chris Waller sends six runners into a single maiden handicap at Hawkesbury on Thursday, yet the stable that should worry punters most is the one that has won with five of its eight runners at this track.
That stable is John O’Shea and Tom Charlton, and after two scratchings it is down to one serious shot on the card. Expect a day where the market leans on reputation over form. There are seven races on a Good to Soft track, from a 1,100m maiden at 1:50PM through to a 1,500m Benchmark 68 at 5:25PM. These Hawkesbury racing tips work through every race, flag the jockeys and trainers who actually win here, and finish with a NAP, a value play, a multi banker and an each-way shot. Course form is thin across most fields, so the weight of the analysis sits on recent runs, weight shifts and who is in the saddle. Odds quoted are correct at time of writing; the last three races had no live prices when this was put together.
Hawkesbury on Thursday: what the track gives us
A Good to Soft surface usually rewards horses that have shown they can handle a bit of give, and it tends to blunt the ones relying on a sharp turn of foot. Keep that in mind with the topweights in Races 3 and 5.
Only a handful of today’s runners have real Hawkesbury history. Five horses still in their races have four or more starts here, and two of them have never hit the frame at the track.
| Horse | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Binkou | 4 | 1 | 2 | 25% | 50% |
| Ribble Lace | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 50% |
| Share The Joy | 4 | 1 | 1 | 25% | 25% |
| Magenta Shores | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Circus Girl | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
The riding ranks are deeper. J R Collett has the best strike in the frame among the regulars, while Zac Lloyd wins more than one in four of his Hawkesbury rides, the sharpest win rate of anyone on the card with a decent sample.
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J R Collett | 18 | 4 | 12 | 22.2% | 66.7% |
| Tom Sherry | 28 | 3 | 16 | 10.7% | 57.1% |
| Zac Lloyd | 32 | 9 | 18 | 28.1% | 56.3% |
| Tommy Berry | 41 | 8 | 23 | 19.5% | 56.1% |
| Rachel King | 37 | 7 | 19 | 18.9% | 51.4% |
| Deon le Roux | 10 | 1 | 5 | 10.0% | 50.0% |
| A B Collett | 43 | 6 | 21 | 14.0% | 48.8% |
| C Schofield | 48 | 6 | 22 | 12.5% | 45.8% |
On the training side, Waller brings the volume with 68 runners here, but the smaller operations are the ones converting.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John O’Shea & Tom Charlton | 8 | 5 | 7 | 62.5% | 87.5% |
| J & G Lee | 9 | 2 | 7 | 22.2% | 77.8% |
| M, W & J Hawkes | 17 | 6 | 12 | 35.3% | 70.6% |
| Bjorn Baker | 39 | 7 | 22 | 17.9% | 56.4% |
| Michael Freedman | 16 | 0 | 9 | 0.0% | 56.3% |
| Peter Snowden | 19 | 4 | 10 | 21.1% | 52.6% |
| C J Waller | 68 | 11 | 28 | 16.2% | 41.2% |
The Hawkes team stands out. Six winners from 17 runners is a proper record, and they bring just one runner today, which makes the booking worth noticing.
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Race-by-race: Hawkesbury predictions
Race 1: Paul ‘Griffo’ Griffin Memorial Mdn Plate, 1:50PM, 1,100m
My Ju Ju is the one to beat. A second on debut, barrier 1 and Deon le Roux in the saddle, who has hit the frame in half of his ten rides here. Trainers J & G Lee have only sent nine runners to Hawkesbury, but seven of them have placed, which is a tidy return for a small yard.
The rail draw over 1,100m matters on a rain-affected track. My Ju Ju can hold the fence, take the shortest route and make the others come around. At $2.80 with Unibet the price is not generous, but a debut second is the strongest single piece of form in this field.
Sacred Vow is the danger. The first starter has Tommy Berry aboard from barrier 11 and is $4.80 with Unibet. Michael Freedman’s Hawkesbury record is odd, with no winners from 16 runners but nine placings, so expect a forward showing rather than a certain win. Win bet on My Ju Ju.
Race 2: Redbank North Richmond (Bm64), 2:25PM, 1,300m
Bjorn Baker booked Tommy Berry for Imperial Royale, and that pairing has history at this track. Berry and Baker have teamed up six times at Hawkesbury for one winner, and half of those rides finished in the placings. Baker on his own places more than half of his runners here.
The horse backs it up. Imperial Royale‘s last two runs read a win and then a second, with one win and two top-three finishes from three starts over the past 90 days. With 57kg from barrier 5, Berry should be able to settle just off the speed. At $2.35 with Bet Right the price is short, but it is the right kind of short.
Two others need respect. Bright Promise has won two of the last three, has one win from two Hawkesbury visits, and is $6.00 with Bet Right; the query is 58kg after a fourth last time. Fast Track is the more interesting threat because of the stable. O’Shea and Charlton have won five from eight here, and the horse has finished in the top three in all five runs shown. Deon le Roux rides at $4.00 with Unibet.
Imperial Royale to win, with Fast Track as a saver in the exacta.
Race 3: Blossom Hair, Body, Face & Wig Boutique (Bm64), 3:05PM, 1,300m
The market has Stallone at $2.80 with Bet Right, and that price assumes 61kg on a Good to Soft track is no issue. I am not convinced. A win and two seconds sit in the recent record, but the most recent run was a fourth and Stallone now carries the most weight in the field.
Wormington looks the better bet. A last start winner who placed on the only previous visit to Hawkesbury, jumping from barrier 1 with 58kg. Zac Lloyd rides, and the numbers on him here are excellent: nine winners from 32 rides. Richard Litt wins one in four with his Hawkesbury runners. Wormington is $9.00 with Bet Right, which is far too big for a last start winner drawn on the rail with the track’s most effective jockey aboard.
Heard Of Him is the main danger. A winner at the only start at the course, and in light with 56.5kg, though fifth last time. The price is $5.50 with Unibet. Who But Roo has been busy, with eight runs in the past 90 days, but one win from that many starts suggests a horse that struggles to finish the job.
Win bet on Wormington, with a small saver on Heard Of Him.
Race 4: Forbes Super Mdn Hcp, 3:40PM, 1,600m
Can six Waller maidens add up to one winner? The stable has Almaaz, Kawerau, Stellar Cipher, Kamiral, Your Attitude and Boston Glide in this, and the market has latched onto Your Attitude at $4.40 with Unibet. The lightest Waller weight at 54kg from barrier 2 is a nice setup. Still, a form line of eighth, fourth and fifth does not make a standout, and Siena Grima wins just 7% of her rides here.
Boston Glide gets the track’s best strike rate jockey in Zac Lloyd, which makes it the Waller runner to follow if you want one. Third two starts back, then well beaten last time. The price is $5.50 with Bet Right.
My pick is March. Third on debut, the only run so far, and now stepping up to 1,600m for a stable that is outstanding here: the Hawkes team has won six of 17 at the track and placed with twelve. Tyler Schiller has ridden more Hawkesbury winners than anyone on today’s card, nine from 52. At $8.00 with Bet Right, March has a profile that gives you a safety net for the place.
I Am Dynasty is the danger, and a win would surprise nobody. Second and then third from two starts, with C Schofield riding for Brad Widdup, who has had 50 runners at the track. The price is $5.00 with Bet Right from barrier 4. Memorise, $5.50 with Unibet, has placed twice in three runs but drew barrier 14, a tough ask over the mile.
Each-way on March, and put I Am Dynasty in any trifecta.
Race 5: Dentavision (Bm64), 4:15PM, 2,000m
Valentiago has already shown what Hawkesbury brings out. One win from two starts here and placed in both, and recent figures of 412132 that never stray far from the money. The 60kg topweight is the knock, especially at 2,000m on a softening surface, but barrier 2 lets Tom Sherry save ground the whole way. Sherry hits the frame in more than half of his rides here, and Peter Snowden wins with about one in five of his Hawkesbury runners.
Binkou is the one with the course numbers to challenge. Four starts here for a win and two top-three finishes, and a 90 day record of one win and three top-three finishes from five runs shows a horse in decent order. Binkou also gets in four kilos lighter than Valentiago, and that gap matters over a staying trip.
Think I Do has placed three times in five recent runs without winning, which makes it a place candidate rather than a winner. No live prices were up for this race at the time of writing. Back Valentiago to win and box it with Binkou in the quinella.
Race 6: Fowler Civil Contracting Provincial Hcp (C1), 4:50PM, 1,500m
Is anyone in this field actually going to win? It is a race full of placegetters. Prince de Vega has form of 321343, Bang On Time reads 21443, and Ribble Lace has two placings from four Hawkesbury starts without a win.
If forced, Prince de Vega gets the nod. Barrier 1, 55kg, and two placings from three runs in the past 90 days. Bang On Time has placed in both recent starts but has to carry 59kg, with C Schofield aboard. Sonnig is the only runner with a recent win, one from four in the past 90 days, and is worth a small look at a price once the market forms. Small win bet on Prince de Vega or treat this as a watch race.
Race 7: Richmond Club Midway (Bm68), 5:25PM, 1,500m
Showmara is the light weight on the rise; Change My Address is the class horse with the best connections. The weight scale could decide it.
Showmara reads 8-97812, so a win and then a second in the last two runs, and gets in with just 53.5kg. That is a big edge over a field where most carry 57kg or more. Barrier 5 is fine, and a win from four runs over the past 90 days confirms the improvement is real.
Change My Address has J R Collett, who places in two of every three rides at Hawkesbury, and trainer J G Sargent, who wins more than one in four here. The horse has 59kg and recent results of 261347 that have drifted lately, but those connections can lift a runner. Cryptonic carries the top weight at 60.5kg and has two placings from four recent starts, though still no win in that time.
Showmara is the bet to finish the day, straight out to win, and Change My Address goes in the quinella.
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Where the money goes
NAP: Imperial Royale (Race 2, 2:25PM). A winner and a runner up in the last two starts, with a jockey and trainer who know how to win here; $2.35 with Bet Right is a price to take, not to fight.
Value: Wormington (Race 3, 3:05PM). $9.00 with Bet Right for a last start winner on the rail with Zac Lloyd is the biggest gap between price and chance on the card.
Banker: My Ju Ju (Race 1, 1:50PM). The only proven maiden in the field, drawn to lead or sit, at $2.80 with Unibet.
Each-way: March (Race 4, 3:40PM). $8.00 with Bet Right on a debut placegetter from the most productive stable at the track.
Course angle: Valentiago (Race 5, 4:15PM). Back the horses with a Hawkesbury win on their record when they bring a jockey who places this often here.
Those are the Hawkesbury racing tips for Thursday, and if the Hawkes team lands another one with March, their small Hawkesbury raiding party will be the stable to follow at every meeting here this spring.
FAQ
What time does racing start at Hawkesbury today?
Race 1, the Paul ‘Griffo’ Griffin Memorial Mdn Plate over 1,100m, jumps at 1:50PM. The last race, the Richmond Club Midway (Bm68) over 1,500m, runs at 5:25PM, and the track is rated Good to Soft.
Who are the top jockeys and trainers at Hawkesbury?
Zac Lloyd has the best win rate among today’s riders, nine winners from 32 rides, and J R Collett places in two of every three rides. Among trainers, John O’Shea and Tom Charlton have won five of eight here, and the Hawkes stable has six winners from 17 runners.
What are the best bets at Hawkesbury today?
Imperial Royale in Race 2 is the NAP, Wormington in Race 3 is the value play at $9.00 with Bet Right, and My Ju Ju in Race 1 is the banker for multis. March in Race 4 is the each-way choice among today’s Hawkesbury best bets.
Where can I find the best odds for Hawkesbury races?
Prices across the opening four races are split between Unibet and Bet Right, with Bet Right best on Imperial Royale and Wormington and Unibet best on My Ju Ju. Check the bookmaker list above for Hawkesbury odds once Races 5 to 7 open.
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