Overview
Cool As Ted is the best bet of the day. He has placed in both of his runs over the past three months, ran 2nd last time, placed at his only Nowra start, and gets Brodie Loy, who has five wins and ten placings from thirteen rides at the track. In a weak opening maiden, that is as solid as Sunday gets.
Three selections from two meetings, Nowra and Muswellbrook, out of the five we previewed. The best bet and the value bet had live prices when this was written. The quaddie horse’s market wasn’t open yet, so check the price before you play.
The best bet
Cool As Ted, Nowra Race 1, 1:35, 1.70 with Ladbrokes.
The price is short, and it should be. Cool As Ted draws barrier 2 in an 1100m maiden where nothing else has a better recent record. His last two runs both produced placings, and his only Nowra start did too, so the track and the trip hold no surprises.
The ride matters as much as the horse. Brodie Loy places on more than three of every four Nowra mounts, and that strike rate makes a horse who already runs consistently even harder to beat.
The danger is Jenni Moo Moo, who has placed in four of her last five for Natalie Jarvis and was 3rd last start. If Cool As Ted gets beaten, it will most likely be by her. A win bet, or the first leg of a multi.
The value bet
Melodia Perfecta, Nowra Race 3, 2:45, 8.50 with Bet Right.
Five runs in the past three months, five placings. Three of her last four were 2nds, including last start, and she gets 56.5kg in this BM58, five kilos less than the topweight and favourite Kendalia.
The case against her is simple: she keeps finding one better. Amy McLucas has three placings from thirteen Nowra rides and no wins. But at this price, the place alone covers most of the risk, and a mare this consistent with this weight edge only needs one clear run.
Johntialjo is the main danger after a 3rd first-up, with Brodie Loy riding. Each-way.
The quaddie angle
Bradford, Muswellbrook Race 7, 5:36.
Bradford anchors the Muswellbrook quaddie. He has won his last two starts and placed in all four of his runs in the past three months, and he gets Ashley Morgan, who has ridden seven winners from seventeen rides at the track. On 59kg he gets two kilos from topweight Kaazi.
Barrier 12 is the one concern, and it can cost a length or two in a field this size. Vltava, a winner at one of two Muswellbrook starts for Joel Wilkes, is the danger. Use Bradford as a single in the last leg and spread through the earlier legs.
The market for this race hadn’t opened when this was written.
How these were picked
All three come from our full previews for Mornington, Nowra, Muswellbrook, Naracoorte and Albany. We wanted selections with a live price wherever the form allowed, and only the early races at most meetings were priced when this was written.
That ruled out some of the strongest form on the day. Ilovediamonds at Mornington, Naralinga at Naracoorte, Abstruse at Nowra and Desert Ora at Albany were each the NAP for their meeting, but none of their races had a market yet. Weasel Sea at Mornington ($7.00) and Arizona Wildfire at Naracoorte ($7.00) were the other priced value options, and Melodia Perfecta got the nod on the bigger price and the weight edge. For the quaddie, Bradford‘s two straight wins made him the stronger anchor than Abstruse or Naralinga, whose races fall inside their own meetings’ quaddies too.