Flemington Racing Tips 31 Oct 2026: Sass Appeal’s Day?

Overview

Sass Appeal has won four of her five starts at Flemington, and on Derby Day she lines up in the Group 1 Empire Rose Stakes with Damian Lane aboard for Danny O’Brien, a pairing that has won both of its rides together on this track. No other runner on the card owns this course the way she does, which makes her the obvious place to start these Flemington racing tips.

Then zoom out, because there is a lot to get through. Nine races on a Good surface, with three Group 1s back to back: the Coolmore Stud Stakes at 3:40pm, the Victoria Derby at 4:20pm and the Empire Rose at 5:00pm, and the Rising Fast Stakes and two big handicaps around them. Bookmakers had only opened markets on the first two races when this was written, so most of what follows leans on form, course records and the stables doing the placing. Read on for a view on every race, the bets we would actually have, and the Flemington best bets we would stand by at the 12:20pm jump.

Reading the Flemington card

Course form here is deeper than on most cards. Eleven horses have three or more starts at Flemington, and the riding and training ranks are full of people who know the straight and the turn out of the back.

Two things jump out. Danny O’Brien wins with roughly one in five of his Flemington runners, the best strike rate of any stable with real volume here, and he has the Derby and Empire Rose covered with True Rebel and Sass Appeal. Ciaron Maher sends the biggest team, thirteen runners across the day, off a record of 23 winners from 164 starters at the track.

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Flemington race by race

Race 1: Channel 9 Carbine Club Stakes, 12:20PM, 1600m

Unhinged comes to Flemington off two straight wins and has placed in three of four runs over the last three months, which is the profile you want in a set weights three year old race over the mile. James McDonald rides for Chris Waller, and barrier two lets him take whatever spot he likes without spending petrol.

High Falls is the danger. Two starts, two wins, and John Allen rides from barrier four. The unknown is how much is left in the tank when the rest of the field asks the question at the 300m, and that is exactly why he is $4.80 with Unibet rather than favourite. Conquer The World won last time and is a fair each-way chance at $6.00.

Unhinged is $2.70 with Bet Right. Short, but fair. Win bet.

Race 2: Tab One Pool Vanity, 1:00PM, 1400m

Is Regal Ambition really a $2.20 chance carrying 57.5kg, a kilo and a half more than every other filly? The form says she is the best horse in the race: placed in all three runs over the last three months, including a win, with Michael Dee riding for the Hayes stable from barrier seven. The weight is the only real knock.

Pin Up Sheila is the one the market respects at $3.90, and her trainers, John O’Shea and Tom Charlton, have won two of their six Flemington starts and placed with four. McDonald rides from barrier five. The price we like most, though, is I Am Aria at $8.00 with Bet Right. She has run second at two of her last three, placed in three of four runs this campaign, and Blake Shinn gets a smooth trip from the outside if he wants it.

Regal Ambition to win, with a small each-way saver on I Am Aria.

Race 3: HKJC World Pool Wakeful Stakes, 1:40PM, 2000m

Ciaron Maher and Mark Zahra have teamed up six times at Flemington for one win and four placings, and the pairing gets its best chance of the day here with Icelady. Her last six read 4-2-2-2-1-2, she has placed in all three runs over the last three months and banked more than $450,000 doing it. That money was not earned in weak races.

Churchill Rose is the danger after a win and a second in her last two, and Craig Williams is a useful booking from barrier seven. She has to prove she can carry that form up to 2000m.

Icelady to win. She has been knocking on the door long enough.

Race 4: G.H. Mumm Rising Fast Stakes, 2:20PM, 1200m

The Cosmic One has won four in a row, three of them in the last three months, and comes into this handicap with only 54kg. That is the shape of a sprinter climbing the grades faster than the handicapper can keep up. Harry Coffey rides for Travis Doudle, and while barrier 17 is wide, this is a straight course sprint, so the draw matters less than it would around a turn.

The obvious threat is Ndola. She is the course horse in the race, two wins and three placings from four Flemington starts, but she has 58kg and barrier 19. Golden Straand has won two of his last four for Damian Lane and is the each-way alternative.

Back The Cosmic One to win. This is the bet of the day.

Race 5: The ABC Bullion Damien Oliver, 3:00PM, 1400m

Cote Atlantique‘s last three runs read third, second, first, and that steady climb comes with track form: one win and two placings from three Flemington starts. Declan Bates rides for Henry Dwyer with 55kg, which is a fair racing weight in a handicap where War Machine and Private Eye both carry 59kg.

War Machine is the contrast. Lane rides for the Hayes team, he won last start, but there are two unplaced runs in his last five and he has 59kg from barrier 18. If he brings his best he wins; if he brings the other version he runs nowhere. Pericles and Estremo are scratched.

Cote Atlantique each-way. A reliable horse in a lottery of a race.

Race 6: Coolmore Stud Stakes, 3:40PM, 1200m

Two unbeaten profiles, two different routes to the same spot. Satono Glow has won both her Flemington starts and both her runs over the last three months, and as a filly she gets the 2kg allowance, so she carries 55kg against the colts’ 57kg. John O’Shea and Tom Charlton have done well with the few they bring here, and Ben Melham has barrier four to work with.

The Next Episode is the other side of it. Three straight wins for Maher and Zahra, including his only Flemington start, and he has the gate 14 draw to deal with. If he finds cover early he is the one to beat; if he is caught wide for the first half he gives Satono Glow a start she will not need. ST Gotthard has placed in both runs this preparation for Waller and McDonald, and earned close to a quarter of a million dollars doing it, which tells you the races he has been running in.

Satono Glow to win, ST Gotthard as the exacta partner. A full preview of the race is on our Group 1 page.

Race 7: Howden Victoria Derby, 4:20PM, 2500m

The Derby is a stamina test for three year olds who have never been asked to go 2500m, so you want a horse whose form keeps improving as the trip gets longer. True Rebel fits that best. He has placed in all four runs over the last three months, winning two of them, and his only Flemington start was a win. Willie Egan rides for Danny O’Brien, and O’Brien’s record here is the best of the big stables.

Quick Finish is the one we fear. Three wins in a row for the McEvoy stable, placed in all three runs this campaign, and she gets the 2kg allowance as a filly, carrying 55kg to the colts’ 57kg. Jye Mcneil has to work her into the race from barrier 11. King Snitz, ninth then third then first then first, is the improver for Shane Jackson with Lane aboard, and Murshidi is Maher’s best on recent figures.

Hierarchy is scratched. True Rebel to win, with a saver on Quick Finish.

Race 8: Tab Empire Rose Stakes, 5:00PM, 1600m

This is where the course angle earns its keep. Sass Appeal has won four of her five Flemington starts, which is about as close to a track specialist as Australian racing produces, and she now has Lane on board for O’Brien. They have won both their rides together on this course. The worry is the last three months: three runs, one placing, no wins. She comes here with 56.5kg as a four year old, a kilo under the older mares.

Unleeshing is the in-form mare. Two wins and four placings from four runs this campaign, and Jason Collett rides for Bjorn Baker, who has won three of his twelve Flemington starters. Concord Connie has won both her starts here and should not be dismissed, and Lady Shenandoah has banked more than $680,000 over the last three months.

Sass Appeal to win, on the strength of what this track does for her. Unleeshing in the exacta.

Race 9: Asahi Super Dry Sprint, 5:40PM, 1100m

Hard to have a confident view in the last. Bridal Waltz placed in all three runs this preparation without winning, and she won on her only Flemington start. With 55kg, Melham riding and the Moody and Coleman stable behind her, she has the most reliable profile.

Thanks Gorgeous is the course horse, two wins and three placings from three starts here, but she has not placed in two runs this campaign. Generosity and Tres Magnifique are scratched.

Bridal Waltz each-way, small stakes. If you want to end the day on the quaddie instead, she is the anchor.

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Flemington FAQ

What time does racing start at Flemington today?

Race 1, the Channel 9 Carbine Club Stakes over 1600m, jumps at 12:20PM. The Victoria Derby is Race 7 at 4:20PM, and the last, the Asahi Super Dry Sprint, is at 5:40PM.

Who are the top jockeys and trainers at Flemington?

Damian Lane has won nine of his 36 Flemington rides and placed in 17, and Jabez Johnstone has eight winners from 30. Among trainers, Danny O’Brien has 11 winners from 58 starters, and Ciaron Maher has the most volume with 23 winners from 164.

What are the best bets at Flemington today?

The Cosmic One in Race 4 is the NAP, Unhinged in Race 1 is the banker, and Sass Appeal, with four wins from five starts at the track, is our pick in the Empire Rose.

Where can I find the best odds for Flemington races?

Check the bookmaker list above. When this was written, Bet Right was best on Unhinged ($2.70), Regal Ambition ($2.20) and I Am Aria ($8.00), and Unibet was best on High Falls ($4.80). Markets for Races 3 to 9 had not opened.

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