Overview
Miss Castelvecchio won at her only Geelong start and has placed in all three of her runs in the last 90 days, and she gets in on 54kg in the Premier Fencing Ballan Cup (Bm78). In a race where C Maher has three runners and the top weights carry up to 59kg, that is a lot of help for a horse in this kind of form.
The track is rated Good. Eight races run from 12:56PM to 5:30PM, starting with three maidens and finishing with the Country Fasteners Hcp (62) over 1318m. These Geelong racing tips work through every race, the riders and stables with a real record on the track, and a quaddie from Race 5. No bookmaker had prices up for this meeting when it was written, so you will not find odds below; check them before you bet.
What Geelong gives us today
Limited course form across today’s fields. Most runners have one or two starts here at most, and only Lario (two wins from four) and Lucky Compass (two placings from three) have been around enough to count.
The riders are where the numbers live. Sam Kennedy has a small sample, but Jabez Johnstone has finished in the first three on 12 of his 19 rides here, and L J Meech has the best win rate among riders with real volume.
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Kennedy | 6 | 1 | 4 | 16.7 | 66.7 |
| Jabez Johnstone | 19 | 2 | 12 | 10.5 | 63.2 |
| D Yendall | 25 | 4 | 14 | 16.0 | 56.0 |
| MS L J Meech | 34 | 7 | 17 | 20.6 | 50.0 |
| B Rawiller | 28 | 4 | 13 | 14.3 | 46.4 |
| Tom Madden | 11 | 1 | 5 | 9.1 | 45.5 |
C Maher brings the biggest local record, 13 winners from 72 runners, and his runners have placed 41 times. M Price and M Kent Jnr win with more than a quarter of theirs.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Dabernig | 24 | 5 | 14 | 20.8 | 58.3 |
| C Maher | 72 | 13 | 41 | 18.1 | 56.9 |
| M Price & M Kent Jnr | 23 | 6 | 13 | 26.1 | 56.5 |
| L & T Corstens & W Larkin | 18 | 5 | 9 | 27.8 | 50.0 |
| Aaron Purcell | 16 | 3 | 8 | 18.8 | 50.0 |
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Geelong racing tips, race by race
Race 1: Black Mount Springwater Mdn Plate, 12:56PM, 1118m
Exacting Standard has run second twice from three starts, the latest of them a second, and that is the most solid form in a weak maiden. Zac Spain rides for Shane Nichols and Hayden Black from barrier 5.
Mystic River Queen is the danger. One start, one second, and M M Laurie‘s stable has three winners from 18 runners here. A horse with one run can improve the most second time up. The Hayes stable sends three, and Truant is the best of them with a second among its three runs. Riveting is out. Small win bet on Exacting Standard.
Race 2: Mcgrath Estate Agents Ballan – Emerging Stars Series Mdn Plate, 1:31PM, 1318m
Does Magna Sententia need more than a second and a third to be the pick here? Probably not in this field. Both runs came in the last 90 days, and D Yendall, who places on more than half of his Geelong rides, keeps the ride for Taige Weir.
A & S Freedman have two chances. Scoot ran second on debut, and Velocite Belle has three runs for a 4-4-3 line with L J Meech riding. Lei has placed twice from four starts but ran seventh last time. Rock About is out. Win bet on Magna Sententia, with Scoot the saver.
Race 3: Ballan Storage Mdn Plate, 2:06PM, 1518m
Brutal Tempo has the gate and the profile. Barrier 1, B Rawiller up, and placings in both runs in the last 90 days, the latest a second. The form line reads 3-8-3-2, so it has been close without getting there, and 1518m from the inside lets Rawiller ride it wherever the speed is.
Love ‘N’ Glory is the stable runner to respect. C Maher places with more than half of his Geelong runners, and Jabez Johnstone‘s numbers here are as good as anyone’s. Barrier 15 is the problem. Dame Of Dubai ran second on debut for Symon Wilde. Seven Sons is out. Win bet on Brutal Tempo.
Race 4: Ladbrokes Tote Win +5% In Nov (Bm56), 2:46PM, 1518m
Just My Lot has placed in all five runs in the last 90 days, won one of them, and earned $38,525, the most in the field over that stretch. The form line reads 4-2-3-1-2-3. It draws barrier 2 with only 56kg, and Tom Dabernig places 14 of every 24 runners he brings to Geelong.
This is the safest horse on the card. In a Bm56 the horses that finish in the first three every week are the ones you can trust in a multi, and this one has done that all spring. Bailey Kinninmont rides.
The Quiet Immortal is the main danger. Four runs in the last 90 days, four placings, one win, and the latest a second. Barrier 14 makes it harder, but it has the same consistency as the pick. Savethebesttillast has placed five times from nine recent runs without winning. The Hayes stable has three runners, with Our Pierro the most interesting after two seconds and a win among its last four. Sensational Ruler and Skydream are out. Win bet on Just My Lot, exacta with The Quiet Immortal.
Race 5: Avis Ballarat & Western Victoria (Bm56), 3:26PM, 1720m
Two runs in the last 90 days, a win and a placing, and the win came last start. Caledonian Summer is the one in form, and B Rawiller rides it for Jamie Edwards. The catch is the 62kg topweight, which is why this is a smaller bet than the form deserves.
Mike’s Hope from barrier 14 is the each-way play. Three placings from four recent runs, the latest a third. Spirit Angel has the same 90-day record and was second last time. Mr Margolin has earned the most in the race recently, $30,080, but ran ninth last start. I’mfallinforyou won last time. Tosen Glory is out. Win on Caledonian Summer, each-way on Mike’s Hope.
Race 6: Shane Cook Homes Hcp (62), 4:06PM, 1118m
Plenty of last-start winners here: I’m Da Boss, Chasing Rainbows, Fox Phire and Zane Zena all won their latest race. I’m Da Boss gets the vote. Both runs in the last 90 days produced a placing and one was a win, it has run a place from two Geelong starts, and B Rawiller rides for V L Malady.
Chasing Rainbows is the danger, with a second and a win from its only two starts, though barrier 15 over 1118m is tough. Fox Phire comes in light on 54.5kg. Glisk won at its only Geelong start. Win bet on I’m Da Boss.
Race 7: Premier Fencing Ballan Cup (Bm78), 4:46PM, 1518m
Miss Castelvecchio is the bet of the meeting. Three runs in the last 90 days, three placings, one of them a win, for $40,850, and the form line finishes 1-2-2. She won at her only Geelong start. Charlotte Littlefield has had four runners at the track, with a win and two placings among them.
She also has the race set up for her. Barrier 2 and 54kg in a Bm78 is about as good as it gets. The top weights are on 58kg to 59kg, and the C Maher trio, Jareth, Kurakka and Bold Strike, all come from wider gates. Jareth is the pick of those, second at its latest start.
Taung is the danger. Its form reads 1-1-1 then 1-3, a horse that wins more often than not, and it has no runs in the last 90 days, so it comes in fresh. E J Walsh rides for Matthew Cumani. Lario has two wins and two placings from four starts here for D T O’Brien, the best course record in the race, but its latest run was seventh. Geffina won one of three recent starts for Aaron Purcell. Coco Jen is out.
Win bet on Miss Castelvecchio. Taung and Jareth in the exacta underneath.
Race 8: Country Fasteners Hcp (62), 5:30PM, 1318m
Bee Admired won last start and has a win and a second from two runs in the last 90 days, worth $29,135. Charlotte Littlefield trains, which would make it a double for the stable after the Cup.
Share The Music has the same 90-day record, a win and a third, but carries topweight of 60kg from barrier 12. You Said What ran second last time, and Farside has won one of three recent runs for M Price and M Kent Jnr, who win with more than a quarter of their Geelong runners. Swing Your Magic and Zetheros are out. Win bet on Bee Admired, and a small win bet on Farside.
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18+ T&C’s Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
18+ T&C’s Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
Where the money goes
NAP: Miss Castelvecchio (Race 7, 4:46PM). Placed in all three recent runs, won at her only Geelong start, and gets the Cup on 54kg from barrier 2.
Value: Farside (Race 8, 5:30PM). Rawiller rides for a stable that wins with 6 of every 23 runners here, and a recent win says it can handle the grade. No prices were up when this was written.
Banker: Just My Lot (Race 4, 2:46PM). Five runs, five placings in the last 90 days, from barrier 2.
Each-way: Mike’s Hope (Race 5, 3:26PM). Three placings from four recent runs.
Course angle: C Maher at Geelong. He places with 41 of his 72 runners here and has Love ‘N’ Glory, Jareth, Kurakka and Bold Strike today.
Quaddie (Races 5 to 8): Caledonian Summer, Mike’s Hope and Spirit Angel, then I’m Da Boss, Chasing Rainbows and Fox Phire, then Miss Castelvecchio and Taung, and Bee Admired, Share The Music and Farside to finish.
If Miss Castelvecchio wins this on 54kg, she will be a Bm78 horse with a bigger weight next time, and that is when the market will finally catch up.
FAQ
What time does racing start at Geelong today?
Race 1, the Black Mount Springwater Mdn Plate over 1118m, jumps at 12:56PM. The Ballan Cup is Race 7 at 4:46PM and the last goes at 5:30PM. The track is rated Good.
Who are the top jockeys and trainers at Geelong?
L J Meech has 7 winners from 34 rides at Geelong, and D Yendall places on 14 of his 25. C Maher has 13 winners from 72 runners here, and M Price and M Kent Jnr win with 6 of their 23.
What are the best bets at Geelong today?
Miss Castelvecchio in the Ballan Cup is the NAP after three placings from three recent runs. Just My Lot in Race 4 is the banker, and Mike’s Hope in Race 5 is the each-way play.
Where can I find the best odds for Geelong races?
No bookmaker had Geelong prices up when this was written. Compare the bookmakers above once markets open, especially for the Ballan Cup and the quaddie races.
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