Overview
Breukelen has won both of its last two starts, one of them at its only Armidale run, and on Sunday it gets the rider who owns this track. M Weir has won seven of her 30 rides here and finished in the first three in half of them, so Breukelen in the Bishops Hardware / Guyra Bowling Club (Bm66) is where these Armidale racing tips start.
It is a seven-race country card on a Good to Soft track, opening with a 1531m maiden at 1:55PM and closing with a Benchmark 58 at 5:35PM, with the Guyra Cup over 1531m as the feature at 4:55PM. Course form is thin across most fields, so the reads below lean on recent form, the jockeys who know the place and a couple of horses that keep turning up in the first three. Only the first two races had bookmaker markets open when this was written; where a price is quoted below, it is the best live one from the site’s bookmakers.
Armidale racing tips: what the track gives us
Four of today’s runners have three or more starts at the track, which is enough for a small table. None of them has a dominant record, and Soobooco is the only one of the four to have won here.
| Horse | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soobooco | 4 | 1 | 2 | 25.0 | 50.0 |
| Our Boy Tom | 3 | 1 | 1 | 33.3 | 33.3 |
| To Be Frank | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 33.3 |
| Sharpen The Knives | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
The riders are where the real course edge sits. Weir has the volume and the strike rate, while Daniel Smith has only seven rides here but has won two of them and placed in four.
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Smith | 7 | 2 | 4 | 28.6 | 57.1 |
| M Weir | 30 | 7 | 15 | 23.3 | 50.0 |
| Braith Nock | 9 | 2 | 4 | 22.2 | 44.4 |
| B Looker | 14 | 2 | 6 | 14.3 | 42.9 |
| L P Rolls | 25 | 2 | 10 | 8.0 | 40.0 |
| G Spokes | 10 | 1 | 3 | 10.0 | 30.0 |
| Madeline Owen | 12 | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 25.0 |
| Jenny Duggan | 18 | 1 | 4 | 5.6 | 22.2 |
Among the trainers, Stirling Osland is the one with a real Armidale record: five wins from 24 runners and a place more than half the time. Jacob Perrett and M K Mason both hit the frame with most of what they bring here.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Perrett | 8 | 1 | 5 | 12.5 | 62.5 |
| M K Mason | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20.0 | 60.0 |
| Stirling Osland | 24 | 5 | 13 | 20.8 | 54.2 |
| MS S Grills | 14 | 2 | 6 | 14.3 | 42.9 |
| Holly Williams | 7 | 1 | 3 | 14.3 | 42.9 |
| Colt Prosser | 14 | 1 | 5 | 7.1 | 35.7 |
| T G Payne | 14 | 2 | 3 | 14.3 | 21.4 |
| Brett & Georgie Cavanough | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 12.5 |
That last line matters because the Cavanough stable has six runners on the card and one placing from eight Armidale starters so far. Numbers like that don’t rule a horse out, but they are a reason not to take short odds about one.
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Armidale race by race
Race 1: Can Assist Christmas Cup 6th December Country Boosted Mdn Hcp, 1:55PM, 1531m
Totally Underrated has done everything but win, and Armidale is the right place to put that right. It ran second at its only start here, has placed in two of its three runs over the last 90 days, and its last three runs read 2-5-2. Daniel Smith takes the ride, and he has won two of his seven rides at the track.
The market can’t split it from Hey Kalumba, both at $2.45. Hey Kalumba placed twice from four starts in the same 90-day window but carries 130kg from barrier one, giving Totally Underrated 6.6kg. Over 1531m that weight is the difference. Irish Accolade has placed in four of nine recent starts without winning, which tells you what it is: a place chance, not a winner. Insain Chaos and Must Diamond are listed without riders.
Win bet on Totally Underrated at $2.45 with Bet Right.
Race 2: Guyra Fuels / Four Ways Service Centre (Bm58), 2:30PM, 2078m
The market problem here is Smart Jazz. It is the $4.20 favourite with Bet Right, yet it has one placing from eight starts in the last 90 days and no wins. That is a horse being backed on reputation.
Harriet is the one to be on. It won last start, has a win from three runs in the last 90 days, and draws barrier one with 121.2kg, the lightest weight in the field. From the inside it can take a sit behind whatever leads and save ground for the full 2078m. Jenny Duggan‘s Armidale numbers are modest, but trainer Lyle Chandler has had four of his five runners here finish in the first three.
Fabs Cuz is the danger. It ran second at its only Armidale start and has placed in half of its four recent runs, and M Weir rides. The Comanche, a winner two starts back, is drawn wide in ten but Jacob Perrett gets them placing here. Zou Big Boy is listed without a rider.
Win bet on Harriet at $5.50 with Bet Right, with Fabs Cuz ($5.50, Unibet) the saver.
Race 3: The Guyra Community Mdn Hcp, 3:05PM, 1203m
Can anyone in this maiden beat a horse that has placed at both recent starts? Boa Vista has finished in the first three in each of its two runs in the last 90 days, with the last one a second, and drops to a 1203m maiden with Madeline Owen aboard. It does carry the 130kg top weight and is part of the Cavanough team that has struggled here.
Wild Romeo comes out of the Osland stable and has placed once from three recent runs. Its run of fourths says it is honest rather than fast, but Osland’s Armidale record keeps it in the conversation. Platinum Card is lightly raced and trainer Melissa Dennett has a win from three starters at the track. Breakage has no form figures listed.
This is a weak race. Small win bet on Boa Vista once the market opens; no market had been posted when this was written.
Race 4: Bishops Hardware / Guyra Bowling Club (Bm66), 3:40PM, 1203m
Breukelen‘s form line reads 3-1-1, and one of those wins came here at its only Armidale start. Weir rides again. She wins close to a quarter of her rides at the track, so she is the rider to want. The step up to Benchmark 66 is the question, and 128.9kg from barrier nine over 1203m is not light.
The answer comes from the rest of the field. Enniroc won last start and has a win from two runs in the last 90 days, and it is the obvious danger from barrier one with G Spokes. Soobooco is the only other course winner in the field and has placed in three of its five recent starts. The Lupercal keeps placing too (four from six in the last 90 days) without often winning. Polymer is listed without a rider.
Win bet on Breukelen, the day’s best bet. Prices were not up when this was written.
Race 5: Guyra Hotel Country Boosted Hcp (C1), 4:20PM, 1422m
Bundoran doesn’t lose its way. It has finished in the first three in all four runs in the last 90 days, won the most recent of them, and placed at both Armidale starts. B Looker rides for Ridge Wilson, and 123.4kg from barrier five is a fair hand for a Class 1.
Midnight Rhythm is the threat. It won last start, has a win and a second from two Armidale runs, and its form line of 6-2-2-1 shows improvement. The catch is 130kg, the top weight, and Zac Wadick has not won from six rides here. Big Brad won last start for the Cavanough stable and only has two runs to its name, so it has more to find out than the pair above. Libby ran second at its only Armidale start.
Win bet on Bundoran, and it goes in multis as the banker.
Race 6: Watson Mcnamara & Watt Guyra Cup, 4:55PM, 1531m
Two horses come into the Cup with completely different profiles. Need A Miracle is the one on the way up: a win and two placings from three runs in the last 90 days, a last start win, and only 121.2kg with Braith Nock, who has won two of his nine rides here. Zamborghini is the steady one, with a win and three placings from five recent starts for D J Hatch.
The weights help Need A Miracle. Shamedy and King Kikau carry 133.3kg and 132.2kg, and while King Kikau has Weir, it is giving the light-weighted improvers more than 10kg. Shamedy has placed in two of four recent runs without winning. Night Fighter won once from four runs, so it can run a place at a price on its day.
The weights are spread wide and there are no prices yet, so the bet is each-way. Each-way on Need A Miracle, with Zamborghini in the exotics.
Race 7: Elders Guyra (Bm58), 5:35PM, 1422m
Albert’s Pick was also entered in the Class 1 but is listed without a rider there, so this is its race, and it suits. It has placed in all three of its runs in the last 90 days, including a win, and its last three read 3-1-2. Jenny Duggan rides at 124.5kg from barrier three.
Of The View is the Osland runner and won one of its four recent starts, though its last run was a sixth. Age Of Aquarius ran second at its only Armidale start and has B Looker on, for a stable that places with three of every seven runners here. Bucko’s Wish won one of its three recent runs and would be no surprise.
Win bet on Albert’s Pick, with a saver on Of The View.
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Where the money goes
NAP: Breukelen (Race 4, 3:40PM). Two wins on end, unbeaten at the track, and the leading course rider back on. The rise in class is the only thing to get past.
Value: Harriet (Race 2, 2:30PM). $5.50 with Bet Right for a last start winner with the inside gate and the lightest weight, in a race where the favourite hasn’t won in eight recent starts.
Banker: Bundoran (Race 5, 4:20PM). Four top-three finishes from four recent runs and placed both times here. As reliable as anything on the card.
Each-way: Need A Miracle (Race 6, 4:55PM). Light weight, a last start win and a rider who goes well here, in an open Cup.
Course angle: M Weir. Seven wins and 15 placings from 30 Armidale rides. She is on Breukelen, Fabs Cuz and King Kikau among others, and her mounts are worth a look in every race she rides.
Those are the Armidale racing tips in one place. If Osland keeps placing more than half his Armidale runners, his name will be the first thing to check when the next card here comes out.
FAQ
What time does racing start at Armidale today?
Race 1, the Can Assist Christmas Cup 6th December Country Boosted Mdn Hcp over 1531m, starts at 1:55PM. The last, the Elders Guyra (Bm58) over 1422m, goes at 5:35PM. The Guyra Cup is Race 6 at 4:55PM.
Who are the top jockeys and trainers at Armidale?
M Weir leads today’s riders with seven wins and 15 placings from 30 Armidale rides, and Daniel Smith has won two of his seven. Stirling Osland is the trainer to follow, with five wins from 24 runners and 13 placings.
What are the best bets at Armidale today?
Breukelen in Race 4 is the NAP after two straight wins, including its only Armidale start. Bundoran in Race 5 is the banker after placing in all four recent runs, and Harriet in Race 2 is the value at $5.50.
Where can I find the best odds for Armidale races?
When this was written, markets were up for Races 1 and 2 only, with Bet Right and Unibet holding the best prices. Check the Armidale racecards on race morning and compare the bookmakers listed above before you bet.