Newcastle Preview & Best Bets – Monday October 24

Newcastle Preview & Best Bets – 06/02/2024

 

Newcastle Tips 24/10/2022

Our form expert provides Newcastle tips for today’s horse racing at Newcastle Racecourse and gives his best bets.

 

BEST BET 🏆

Race 1:  No.4  ROCKBARTON RUBY  ($3 with TAB)

Local galloper ROCKBARTON RUBY has proven to be ever-consistent in her eight starts to date and looks well placed here for a shot at career win number two today. Last start, the Denman mare put in another bold performance in wet conditions when she beat all but one home in a Class 1 Hcp, here over 1300m. She ran her last 600m, 5.2 lengths quicker than benchmark, the best last-start effort here by more than 3 lengths. On the Heavy 8 that day, she also posted the fastest final 200m, making it five podium finishes from her six starts this preparation. Ash Morgan rode the mare to her Maiden victory at Scone four starts back and has the job again today. She boasts a strong wet-track record and looks the testing material in this contest.

 

NEXT BEST 🥈

Race 6:  No.4  MYDEEL  ($5.50 with TAB)

Locally-trained by Rod Ollerton, MYDEEL has already left his mark on the track with a 50% winning strike rate and looks the one to beat in this year’s Cup. Two starts back, the Dundeel gelding proved too good in Open company when he took out the 1600m event, here on the main track in Heavy 8 conditions. Then last start, he finished midfield in the Port Macquarie Cup (2000m) with some excuses in the run. He ran his last 600m, 2 lengths quicker than benchmark, second-best here behind Our Candidate (who finished third in the Port Macquarie Cup and has an extras 8kgs to carry today, and is unplaced in four previous second-up runs). Andrew Gibbons sticks with the five-year-old here, despite the unplaced finish last start. There is a lot to like about Mydeel’s chances today who has by far the most glowing resume in the field and he is our top pick for the Cup.

 

NEXT BEST 🥈

Race 9:  No.4  TIVA BAY  ($4.60 with TAB)

The Kris Lees-trained TIVA BAY is second-up today and looks well placed in this field for back-to-back victories here. Last start, the Tivaci gelding was fresh off an 18-week absence which made no difference to his efforts as he finally broke through for his Maiden win at Port Macquarie over 1200m. With 59kgs to carry and Aaron Bullock on board, he settled back in the 14-strong field and had to come wide on the turn. Bullock rode a patient race and once finding clean air, steered the four-year-old out and finished the widest, but best in the run home to grab victory on the line. He carries 2kgs more today but gets the gun-run from gate one and maps to settle near mid-field here with cover. The extra distance looks ideal for him and placed twice when second-up previously, he should give us a bold sight for our cash today.

 

BEST VALUE 💰 

Race 8:  No.6  NEWS FROM PARIS  ($5 with Neds)

Warwick Farm visitor NEWS FROM PARIS was impressive on debut and in similar racing conditions today, looks set for back-to-back victories. Last start, the Dane Shadow mare made a late but success debut when she took out a 1000m Maiden on a Heavy 9 at Goulburn. Ridden a treat by Robyn Freeman, they all tracked wide from the outset (due to the conditions) and turning for home, she was the widest of all, skirting the outside fence. Held up several times, she finally found clean air and finished best to grab first prize right on the line. She can only strip fitter after that run (where the 1000m would have been more like 1100m based on the amount of extra ground she covered). The 1150m here looks ideal and with Robyn Freeman making the trip north for the ride, the scene looks set for another bold performance from the mare.