Overview
Tampa Bay won three races in a row before a fourth at its last start, and it has hit the frame in six of eight runs over the past three months. That is the kind of profile you want in a Class 1, and it is the horse this whole card is built around for us. The catch is barrier 16 in a big field over 1200m, which is exactly why the price should be fair rather than skinny.
There is more to like underneath it. Poisen Point returns for the Coonabarabran Cup after winning its only start at this track, and that win was worth more than $76,000. Crook has run second at each of its last three starts, two of them here. Clayton Gallagher hits the frame on just over half his rides here, which is a number worth carrying from race to race.
These Dubbo racing tips cover all nine races on a Good track, from the 12:24pm staying handicap to the 5:28pm Benchmark 58. You will get a clear pick in every race, the danger, a staking line, and a final card with the NAP, value play and a banker for multis.
Reading the Dubbo card
The track is rated Good and the distances run from 1000m up to 2200m, with three sprints of 1100m or shorter. Course form is patchy for most of the field, but a handful of runners have been here often enough to tell us something.
| Horse | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castro | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0% | 100% |
| Godwits | 4 | 1 | 1 | 25% | 25% |
| Glowing Rapids | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 75% |
| Miss Capricorn | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 75% |
| Shadow Dane | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 50% |
| Quasimoto | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 50% |
| Denman Force | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| Lang Park | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| Dunedin | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 67% |
| Tavijewel | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 67% |
The riders with real volume at Dubbo, sorted by how often they place:
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasmine Urquhart-Warren | 11 | 2 | 7 | 18% | 64% |
| Clayton Gallagher | 44 | 8 | 23 | 18% | 52% |
| Jordan Quince | 13 | 0 | 6 | 0% | 46% |
| Jacob Stiff | 76 | 13 | 28 | 17% | 37% |
| J Pracey-Holmes | 74 | 8 | 26 | 11% | 35% |
| Kody Nestor | 55 | 6 | 18 | 11% | 33% |
And the stables that bring numbers here:
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M R Mulholland | 32 | 8 | 18 | 25% | 56% |
| MS J Galea | 13 | 4 | 7 | 31% | 54% |
| R P Northam | 27 | 5 | 13 | 19% | 48% |
| MS J Clement | 45 | 5 | 16 | 11% | 36% |
| Brett Robb | 72 | 9 | 25 | 13% | 35% |
| C Lundholm | 55 | 8 | 18 | 15% | 33% |
| Connie Greig | 78 | 4 | 23 | 5% | 29% |
Two things jump out. Mulholland wins with a quarter of his Dubbo runners, a strike rate nobody else with volume comes close to. And Connie Greig sends the most runners here by a distance, 78 of them, but only four have won. Quantity is not the same as a plan.
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Dubbo race by race
Race 1: Burgun & Williams Optometrists (Bm66), 12:24PM, 2200m
Godwits is the one. It has run second at its last start and placed four times from six runs over the past three months, and it already has a Dubbo win on its record from four visits. At 2200m the staying profile matters more than raw speed, and this horse keeps finishing in the first three without the market getting excited.
The weight is the question. Godwits carries top weight of 59.5kg with J Pracey-Holmes, and over a trip this long that can bite. The reason we still side with it is that the opposition is not proven at a higher level. D’Oro Choice is the favourite at $3.40 with Bet Right and ran third last start, with two placings from three recent runs, so it is the obvious danger. Tavijewel has two placings from three Dubbo starts including a win and is the each-way spoiler at $6.25.
At $4.00 with Bet Right, Godwits is a win bet. Saver on D’Oro Choice if you want cover.
Race 2: Callaway Roofing & Construction Mdn Hcp, 12:55PM, 1000m
Maidens over 1000m are usually guesswork, but this one has a shape. Beyond Perfection ran fourth at its only start, gets Clayton Gallagher, and goes out a $3.10 favourite with Bet Right. Gallagher places on more than half of his rides at Dubbo, and David J Smith gets seven of every twenty runners here into the frame.
The barrier is wide at 12, so Gallagher will need to cross or settle and hope the speed comes back. Simply Sonnet is the danger: it ran second last start, has two placings from four recent runs, and at $6.50 with Unibet has the most proven form in the race.
Beyond Perfection to win, but small stakes. A one-start maiden at the top of the market is not something to bet the house on.
Race 3: Carpet One Dubbo Country Boosted Mdn Plate, 1:28PM, 1400m
Does Castro ever win? It has been to Dubbo five times and placed every time, without a single victory. That is a record that tells you it handles the track and also tells you it keeps finding one better.
We think Texan Star can be that one better. It has placed at all three of its runs in the past three months and ran second last start, so the form line is moving the right way. Billy Cray rides for MS S Jeffries, who places with about a third of her Dubbo runners. Mega Missile is the other angle: second at its only start for Brett Thompson, with Jacob Stiff aboard, the busiest winning rider at the track.
Texan Star to win, Castro saver for the place. Markets were not up at the time of writing.
Race 4: Sing Out Choir Plate (C1), 2:08PM, 1600m
La Chaparron and Cobocco both won last start. One of them has drawn barrier 3, and the other has drawn 16. That is the race.
La Chaparron has a win and two placings from three recent runs and gets the gate to sit handy with Glenn Cahill. The stable, MS A Smith, has not won at Dubbo from 26 runners but places with about a third of them, so it is not a yard that turns up for nothing. Cobocco has two wins from eight in the past three months and gets Gallagher, but has been to Dubbo four times without a place, and the draw makes it harder again. Hot Miss ran second last start and is the each-way spoiler.
Win bet on La Chaparron. What A Gent is scratched.
Race 5: Tracserv Hcp (C1), 2:48PM, 1200m
Forget the fourth last start at Harden. Before that Tampa Bay strung together three wins in a row, and it has six placings from eight runs over the past three months. It comes in at 54kg for Nick Palmer and Connie Greig, and in a Class 1 sprint that is the best form in the race by some distance.
The worry is barrier 16. Over 1200m at Dubbo that means a choice between burning to cross or riding for luck off the pace. Palmer has two wins from twelve Dubbo rides, enough to know the track. Baron Of Butter is the other runner with local winning form, one win from two starts here, but its last two runs anywhere have produced nothing. Marinera placed in one of its two Dubbo runs and has two placings from four recent starts for Brett Robb, which makes it the main danger with Gallagher riding.
This is the NAP. Win bet on Tampa Bay, exacta with Marinera underneath. Orchid Boy is scratched.
Race 6: North West Equestrian Expo Showcase Sprint, 3:28PM, 1100m
Three straight seconds. Crook has been the bridesmaid at each of its last three runs, including both of its Dubbo starts, and has placed every time it has gone around in the past three months. At some point a horse this consistent finds a race where the winner is not quite good enough.
Zoe Hunt rides for C Lundholm, who has eight wins from 55 runners at the track. Castlebar Road is the threat because it has a Dubbo win and two placings from two visits, though it ran seventh last start. Glowing Rapids has three placings from four Dubbo starts but was well beaten last time out.
Crook each-way. The place return is the bet you can rely on; the win would be a bonus.
Race 7: Inland Petroleum (Bm66), 4:08PM, 1000m
Two Dubbo specialists in the making go head to head here. Denman Force has placed at all three Dubbo starts and four times from five recent runs, but has not won in that stretch. Miss Capricorn won last start, has three Dubbo placings from four, and gets Gallagher from barrier 3.
We side with Miss Capricorn. The win last start says it is in form, the gate suits a 1000m dash, and Connie Greig‘s runners here at least have the rider who places most often. Line Of Law has won one of its two Dubbo starts and placed in the other and is a genuine chance at a price.
Miss Capricorn to win, Denman Force for the place.
Race 8: Imperial Hotel Coonabarabran Cup, 4:51PM, 1600m
The feature on the card, and the one race where class sticks out. Poisen Point has been to Dubbo once and won, collecting more than $76,000 for the effort, and it won its last start as well. That puts it on a different level from most of this field. Brett Robb trains and Liberty Smyth rides at 56.5kg.
Hammoon Sensation is the danger. It won its only run in the past three months and that race was worth $55,000, so it is not a horse coming from the bush. R P Northam places nearly half his Dubbo runners and wins with almost one in five, which is strong volume. Kody Nestor rides.
Then there is Micro Mikki, the stablemate of the favourite, with Gallagher aboard. It has placed four times from five recent starts and in both Dubbo runs, but carries 60.5kg and has not won in that run of form. Talkachino has one Dubbo win from two starts for Mulholland, and that stable’s strike rate here makes it hard to discard entirely.
Poisen Point to win. Exotics: Poisen Point on top of Hammoon Sensation and Micro Mikki. Due Calzini is scratched.
Race 9: Hello Sport Country Boosted (Bm58), 5:28PM, 1300m
Mega Pixel has won two of its six runs over three months and placed in five of them, which is the best recent record in the race. It ran sixth last start, but the run before that was a win and the two before that were seconds. One flat run does not undo that.
MS J Clement trains, Gabrielle Johnston rides, and it carries 59.5kg from barrier 3. Lang Park is the each-way danger: three Dubbo starts, three placings, for MS D Prest, who has placed all three of her runners here. Street Swagger won one of its two Dubbo starts for MS J Galea, whose runners win almost a third of the time at the track.
Mega Pixel to win. Chamber Of Secrets is scratched.
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Where the money goes
NAP: Tampa Bay (Race 5, 2:48PM). Three wins from its last four starts, and the Harden fourth reads as a blip rather than a decline. The gate is the only real knock.
Value: Godwits (Race 1, 12:24PM). $4.00 with Bet Right for a horse that places most times it runs and has won here before.
Banker: Mega Pixel (Race 9, 5:28PM). Five placings from six recent runs makes it the safest leg for a multi.
Each-way: Crook (Race 6, 3:28PM). Three seconds in a row. The place is close to the most reliable outcome on the day.
Course angle: M R Mulholland. Eight winners from 32 runners at Dubbo, with 18 placings. Talkachino in the Cup carries the stable’s colours.
Poisen Point won the Country Championship qualifier here in March; win the Coonabarabran Cup as well and it will be the horse every western district stable has to plan around next autumn.
Dubbo racing FAQ
What time does racing start at Dubbo today?
Race 1, the Burgun & Williams Optometrists Benchmark 66 over 2200m, jumps at 12:24pm. The last, the Hello Sport Country Boosted Benchmark 58, is at 5:28pm.
Who are the top jockeys and trainers at Dubbo?
Clayton Gallagher places on 23 of his 44 Dubbo rides and has eight winners. Jacob Stiff leads for wins with 13 from 76. Among trainers, M R Mulholland wins with a quarter of his runners here, and R P Northam places nearly half of his.
What are the best bets at Dubbo today?
Tampa Bay in Race 5 is our NAP, with three wins from its last four starts. Poisen Point, a Dubbo winner at its only start here, leads us in the Coonabarabran Cup, and Mega Pixel is the banker in the last.
Where can I find the best Dubbo odds?
Prices were up for the first two races at the time of writing, with Godwits at $4.00 and Beyond Perfection at $3.10, both with Bet Right. Check the bookmaker table above for the best price on each race as markets open.