Overview
Precious Girl has been to Newcastle twice and won both times, and she arrives off a last-start win. That makes Race 6 the bet of the day, even though she meets a rival in Hidden Star who has also won twice here. Two fillies with real Newcastle form clashing over 900m is the kind of race worth building a card around.
The rest of the eight-race program runs from a 1:04PM maiden over 1300m to a Class 1 handicap at 5:44PM, with the track rated Good. There are two maidens early, a staying Benchmark 64 over 1900m, the Maitland Cup over 1500m and a pair of 900m sprints in the middle of the card. These Newcastle racing tips give you a clear pick for every race, the runner most likely to beat it, and what we would do with the money. Only Race 1 had a bookmaker market up when this was written, so prices are quoted there and nowhere else. Scratchings so far: Arruza (Race 2), Calgary King (Race 6), Force March (Race 7), and Sun To Me and Frankely Sublime (Race 8).
Newcastle, the setup
A handful of today’s runners have real Newcastle form, and they are worth knowing before you start. General Soho has been here six times for two wins, Hidden Star has won two of three and placed in all of them, and Final Gift has had six goes here without troubling the judge.
| Horse | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hidden Star | 3 | 2 | 3 | 67% | 100% |
| General Soho | 6 | 2 | 3 | 33% | 50% |
| Via Flaminia | 4 | 1 | 1 | 25% | 25% |
| Commanding Artist | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 33% |
| Mr Trackside | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 25% |
| Final Gift | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
The jockey room has plenty of local volume. Mitchell Bell and K S Latham both hit the frame in more than half of their Newcastle rides, and A Bullock wins almost one in four here, the best strike rate among the regulars.
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Izzy Neale | 6 | 2 | 5 | 33% | 83% |
| Mitchell Bell | 86 | 12 | 45 | 14% | 52% |
| K S Latham | 98 | 16 | 50 | 16% | 51% |
| A Bullock | 56 | 13 | 24 | 23% | 43% |
| Jean Van Overmeire | 54 | 9 | 22 | 17% | 41% |
| C Lever | 38 | 5 | 15 | 13% | 39% |
| L Magorrian | 95 | 8 | 28 | 8% | 29% |
Among the trainers, the smaller yards with good local records stand out more than the big names. Richard Litt has nine Newcastle winners from 29 runners, and Nathan Doyle has twelve from 52.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R J Quinton | 8 | 4 | 6 | 50% | 75% |
| S I Singleton | 17 | 5 | 12 | 29% | 71% |
| David Pfieffer | 12 | 3 | 8 | 25% | 67% |
| P Messara & L Gavranich | 12 | 1 | 8 | 8% | 67% |
| Nathan Doyle | 52 | 12 | 31 | 23% | 60% |
| R P Northam | 12 | 2 | 7 | 17% | 58% |
| Michael Freedman | 23 | 4 | 12 | 17% | 52% |
| Richard Litt | 29 | 9 | 15 | 31% | 52% |
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Newcastle predictions, race by race
Race 1: Hunter Land Management Mdn Hcp, 1:04PM, 1300m
The market has made Shahaameh a $1.95 favourite with Unibet, and on what she has shown that looks about right rather than generous. She ran third and then fifth in her two starts, picking up a place in that brief window, and gets A Bullock, who wins nearly a quarter of his Newcastle rides, for Richard and Will Freedman. That is a sound profile for a maiden handicap, but it leaves no margin at the price.
The one we want is Llantarnam at $8 with Bet Right. He ran third on debut, and that run came here at Newcastle, so he already knows the track. David Pfieffer does not send many to this course, but when he does they hit the frame two times in three, with three winners from twelve runners. Llantarnam carries 59kg from the outside gate, which is the knock, but he is the only runner in the field with a placing over this track.
Mumbai Maharani ($5) brings the most experience with four starts and the latest a fourth, but she has not won from any of them. Each-way on Llantarnam, and leave the favourite alone at the price.
Race 2: Huxley Hill Mdn, 1:44PM, 1300m
Does one good run beat five honest ones? That is the puzzle. Rain Delay ran second on debut and collected $18,600 for it, which tells you the race it came from was better than an average maiden. Michael Freedman places more than half of his Newcastle runners, and K S Latham, the busiest jockey on the card with 98 rides here, takes the ride from gate 10.
Incremental is the honest one. His form reads 5-2-2-4-2, he has a Newcastle placing from his only visit, and he has not won in any of those five starts. Liam Riordan rides for Annabel Neasham and Rob Archibald. Landing Gear, also second on debut, is the other one to respect for C Maher.
Rain Delay has more upside than anything else in the race. Win bet, with Incremental the saver in the quinella.
Race 3: On The Mic (Bm64), 2:24PM, 1900m
A small field over a staying trip, and the shape probably suits the horse that keeps turning up. Lensman has run five times in the last three months and placed in four of them, which is as reliable as it gets at this level. Louise Day rides for P J Kelly and they come in under top weight at 59kg from barrier 2, which should let them hold a spot one off the fence.
The danger is Fioprospero, who did win in that same period but carries 62kg and has his latest run a ninth. A Bullock gives him every chance. Angel Feet is the Waller runner and has form figures of 2-3-1 earlier in the year before three quieter runs.
Lensman has done nothing wrong in a long run of starts. Each-way, the place component is the safe part.
Race 4: O’Neills Tyres – Steve O’Neill Memorial Hcp (C1), 3:04PM, 1600m
Imelda and Italian Spirit look the two, and they come at the race from opposite ends of the weights. Italian Spirit, a last-start winner for G Waterhouse and A Bott, has 61.5kg to lump. Imelda ran second and then won in her two starts, gets in with 56.5kg, and jumps from barrier 1. That is a five-kilo swing in her favour against the horse she has to beat.
P Messara and L Gavranich place two of every three runners they bring here, and A Bullock rides again. With a rail draw and a light weight, she can take a sit and come off the fence when it suits.
Tacitly has finished second in five of his last six and placed in both of his Newcastle starts, so he is the each-way type in any exotic. Autumn Sky won on his only visit here for Richard Litt and should not be dismissed. Win on Imelda, saver on Italian Spirit.
Race 5: Hunt Hospitality Super Mdn Plate, 3:45PM, 900m
Doralee has run five times and been second in four of them. She is a frustrating horse to back for the win, but a super maiden over 900m is the softest race she is likely to find, and her one Newcastle start was one of those seconds. A Bullock is on for Edward Cummings.
The threat is Ole Steele, who gets in with just 52kg and has Izzy Neale aboard. Neale has only six rides at the track but has won two and placed in five, and S I Singleton places seven in ten of his Newcastle runners. Ole Steele‘s last run was a third, and that weight could carry him a long way at this trip.
Final Gift has had six starts here without a place and is easy to leave out. Doralee for the place, and a small win saver on Ole Steele.
Race 6: Australian Construction Group Midway (Bm64), 4:26PM, 900m
Precious Girl has won both of her starts at Newcastle and won again last time out, collecting $21,000 in her one run of the last three months. Her form since the spell reads 1-6-1, and the one blemish is surrounded by wins. She drops in at 56.5kg from barrier 3 for Denim Wynen, with Olivia Chambers aboard.
The obvious danger is Hidden Star, who is the course specialist on paper with two wins from three here and a placing every time. The difference is that she has not raced in the last three months, so this looks a first-up run, and she carries 58.5kg. Liam Riordan rides for M S Minervini. If she is ready, she will be hard to hold out; if she needs the run, Precious Girl should be too sharp.
Don’t Doubt Merlin is the third to respect. R J Quinton has four winners from eight Newcastle runners and the horse was second here on his only visit, but he has 59.5kg. Potomac River won on his one start at the track too, which says plenty about how much course form this race has.
Precious Girl is the bet of the meeting. Win, with Hidden Star in the exacta.
Race 7: Maitland Rugby Club Maitland Cup Conditional (Bm68), 5:04PM, 1500m
The scratching of Force March takes out the most in-form horse in the race, and it hands the Maitland Cup to the next one in line. Poisen Point won last time and that was her only run of the last three months. She has 57kg and Izzy Neale, whose small Newcastle sample is all good news, for Brett Robb.
Commanding Artist is the consistent one, with form figures of 5-2-2-3-4-5, and K S Latham rides for G Ryan and S Alexiou, a yard that places more than half of its Newcastle runners. He has placed once from three runs here. Jacenza won on his only start at the track for R P Northam.
General Soho needs a mention because he has won twice here from six starts, but he has not placed in five runs in the past three months and is hard to trust. Poisen Point to win, Commanding Artist the place play.
Race 8: Newcastle Car & Truck Rental Provincial Hcp (C1), 5:44PM, 1300m
Two of the field were scratched, and Sun To Me was one of the better chances, so the race now revolves around Howzat Harry. He has had two runs in the last three months for a win and a second, he won at Newcastle on one of his two visits and placed both times, and he carries just 57kg. Liam Riordan takes the ride for M S Minervini from barrier 4.
Maui is the danger, a last-start winner for K A Lees, whose stable has twelve Newcastle winners. The query is 61kg, the top weight, from barrier 11. A Bullock rides. Coco Dior and Autumn Flyer have each won once in the last three months and are the next two.
Win on Howzat Harry, with Maui as the saver in the quinella.
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18+ T&C’s Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
18+ T&C’s Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
Where the money goes
NAP: Precious Girl (Race 6, 4:26PM). Two wins from two at Newcastle and a winner last time, with a weight edge over the course specialist who looks to be resuming.
Value: Llantarnam (Race 1, 1:04PM). $8 with Bet Right for the only horse in the race who has placed at Newcastle, trained by a man whose runners here place two times in three.
Banker: Rain Delay (Race 2, 1:44PM). The debut second was worth more than most maiden wins, and Latham and Michael Freedman both have strong local records.
Each-way: Doralee (Race 5, 3:45PM). Four seconds from five starts, including one here. The place is close to as sure as anything on the card.
Course angle: A Bullock. He wins 13 from 56 at Newcastle and has eight rides today, including Imelda, Doralee and Maui.
If Precious Girl makes it three from three here, she will be the horse to follow every time Newcastle schedules a 900m sprint.
Newcastle racing FAQ
What time does racing start at Newcastle today?
Race 1, the Hunter Land Management Maiden Handicap over 1300m, jumps at 1:04PM. The last, the Class 1 Provincial Handicap over 1300m, is at 5:44PM.
Who are the top trainers and jockeys at Newcastle?
K S Latham has the most Newcastle wins among today’s jockeys, 16 from 98 rides, and Mitchell Bell places in 52% of his 86 rides here. Among trainers, Nathan Doyle has twelve wins from 52 runners and Richard Litt nine from 29.
What are the best bets at Newcastle today?
Our Newcastle best bet is Precious Girl in Race 6, who is two from two at the track. Llantarnam in Race 1 is the value at $8, and Rain Delay in Race 2 is the banker for multis.
Where can I find the best Newcastle odds?
Only Race 1 had a market open when this was written, with Shahaameh $1.95 at Unibet and Llantarnam $8 at Bet Right. Check the bookmakers listed above for Newcastle odds once the later races are priced.
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