Overview
Unhinged is the best bet on Saturday. He has won his last two, he has placed in three of four runs over the past three months, and James McDonald rides him for Chris Waller from barrier two in the Carbine Club Stakes, the first race of Derby Day at Flemington.
That is one of three selections drawn from three meetings: Flemington, Randwick and Doomben. Two of them carry live prices. The third, the quaddie anchor at Doomben, was unpriced when this was written because bookmakers had only opened markets on the first two races at each meeting.
The best bet
Unhinged, Flemington Race 1, 12:20, 2.80 with Palmerbet.
Two straight wins and a run of placings that stretches back through the spring is the profile you want in a set weights race for three-year-olds over 1600m. McDonald and Waller are the most dependable combination you can find on a big Flemington card, and the draw lets McDonald take whatever spot he likes without spending petrol early.
High Falls is the danger. He is two from two and John Allen rides from barrier four, but nobody knows yet how much is left when this field asks the question at the 300m. The price is short, so treat this as the solid leg rather than a big-staking play. Win bet.
The value bet
Street Force, Randwick Race 2, 12:45, 7.00 with Bet Right.
The Highway Handicap is a big field over 1400m and the market has crushed Bluish Hue into $2.05. He is a fair favourite, but the price leaves room underneath. Street Force has placed in three of his four recent runs and won one of them, and that record is worth a lot more than 7.50 suggests.
The connections add to it. S I Singleton has sent eight runners to Randwick for three winners, and M Weir has won two of his five rides at the track. Bluish Hue is the obvious danger, having placed in all five of his recent starts, so this is an each-way bet rather than a win-only play.
The quaddie angle
Bring Me Kash, Doomben Race 9, 5:07.
The Cricks Highway Handicap over 1110m sits in leg three of the Doomben quaddie, and it is the race to anchor on. Bring Me Kash has won all three of his starts in the last 90 days, worth $73,900 between them, and he gets in at 53kg. Dale Smith rides for D R Ward.
Barrier 11 is the one knock. On a wet track at 1110m, though, a horse in this form only needs a clear run, and the weight gives him room to absorb a wide trip. Zoubaby is the danger, having placed in all five of his Doomben starts, two of them wins. He has not won in four starts recently, which is why he belongs underneath rather than on top.
No bookmaker had a market open on Race 9 when this was written, so check the price before you build the ticket.
How these were picked
All three come straight from the full previews for Saturday’s ten meetings: Flemington, Randwick, Doomben, Morphettville, Ascot, Newcastle, Gold Coast, Toowoomba, Dubbo and Dalby. Each selection was the strongest option for its slot that the previews backed with real form.
Most of the day’s NAPs missed out on price rather than profile. Sheza Alibi in the Golden Eagle, The Cosmic One at Flemington, Hot And High at Ascot and Golden Cloud at Morphettville all have strong cases, but none of their races had a market open when this was written. A recommendation without a price is half a recommendation, so the priced early-race selections got the nod for the best and value slots. Bluish Hue was the other priced option for best bet, but at 2.05 in a 20-runner handicap he offers less than Unhinged does in a cleaner race. The quaddie slot had no priced option at any meeting, and Bring Me Kash had the cleanest recent form of the anchors inside a quaddie.